This is likely not to be decided until some time in 2015 (although who knows, if they are already designing phase 3 they might announce the plan sooner).
If EC1456 was so stellar in phase 1 that it was worthwhile to bump up to phase 3, I suppose the stock might return to the $25 to $30 area over time.
I was only off by a penny. I call that pretty dang good!
Did I get shares from a short? Who is going to sell them shares to cover the ones they sold me, because I am not on margin and will not sell below $12 to $15.
Actually per the call today there is a possibility they do a combined phase 3 study of 145 and 1456 which saves even more money.
I expect into the first weeks of October a spikey climb to $9 or $9.50 as this data is digested.
If they are able to bypass phase 2 with EC1456 and do a three leg phase 3 study using EC145 and EC1456 compared to Docetaxil alone, that saves a ton of time and money. Imagine if EC1456 blew away both EC145 and Docetaxil...it might get approved in 2016, then 1B revenue in 2017.
"Would it be possible from the results of phase 1 of EC1456 to construct a phase 3 study consisting of EC145, EC1456 and a DTX control arm?}"
"Why, yes, yes, it would be possible. Thanks for bringing this up (sarcasm) as we were trying to buy a bunch of shares before we revealed we are going forward with that strategy"
This was not in the slide presentation and is new data IMO. What you have right now is patients able to take a similar level of dosing of EC1456 as EC145 with the advantage that EC1456 is much more powerful.
In fighting cancer, you don't take a rock to a gunfight. I am buying all I can right now and will buy more as fund settle from selling other stocks.
Is it that EC145 delivers a stronger kill to cells with lots of folate receptors and DTX kills the remaining cells that perhaps don't have as many receptors and thus don't take in the EC145 warhead?
Thus neither drug works as well alone as they do together? Makes a lot of sense if I think about it that way but I am a layman here.
I managed to buy Oct $7.50 calls for $0.80 this morning to cover the short $10 calls. Sweeet!
I should write a newsletter :-)
I think it will climb during the day to somewhere between $7 and $15 too.
I am short 10 of those against some Jan $8 calls I am long (in addition to being long the stock and other uncovered $8 calls.
I might buy back the 10 short calls if they are still around $0.25 each like they were on Friday...
That is about the best I can do on prediction.
It might but it hasn't so far in the initial patients at the first two dosing levels. It is the whole point of this technology, deliver a tomahawk cruise missile to the cancer cell without hitting the school next door.