I don't understand what is involved in C&M. I can understand some severance payments (but these do not need to be excessive). If strip really is $40M only, and you can do the stuff you would do in C&M out of that $40M, thus spending only $20M then I think even Kim Kardashian could figure out this was a wise move.
If Moly is selling for $18 in 2016 rejoice! Endako will be able to make a profit! (maybe)
Yes true, but remember that any money they spend is money they can't use to pay off the 9.75% bonds (which become callable soon). If moly stays at $10 in 2015 and 2016 and they only make $20m profit from 20m pounds in 2016 (2015 is dead now) then they may have a net loss there when you figure the opportunity cost of not paying down the 9.75% bonds.
We have to believe the little Canadian has at least access to similar data that Ultra has, since, well, he actually is CEO of the mines. He is so conservative that I do not believe he would spend extra money on stripping if it could be avoided (ie, he isn't going to approve a $80m strip if it can be done for $40m).
What I want to see is how good he is at negotiating with lenders to get cheaper bond rates in the future. Kevin sucked. Getting 12.5% rates when Greece was getting 5% was just insane.
Not much danger of the stock dropping below $4.50 which would be well under cash on hand. No motivation to sell at $5.95 to risk missing out on a $6 gain (if said catalyst does happen over the next 18 months). Max loss is about $1.50 from here and there is still some non-zero chance they find a partner for EC1456. It is a gamble, but with a good potential payout.
Ultra mentioned phase 8 moly won't be cheap like phase 7. I don't know if $5/lb is a reasonable figure for the % moly in phase 8 ore?
I think it is dead money for awhile (Vanda was dead money for well over a year, then went from $4 to $17).
The next big catalyst is EC1456 phase 1 results and a decision about phase 3 trial for Vinta. If EC1456 did so well in phase 1 that they design a phase 3 trial with three legs (EC145, EC1456, and control Docetaxel) for about $50m we could see this spike to $12 or more. That catalyst is likely not for a year.
Do you need to sell now? Where are you going to put the $5.98? Twitter stock?
Just say for a second he is right and we are entering a period of suppressed molybdenum prices (prices hovering between $9 and $12).
Is there any way the costs at TC can be reduced even further? Why do we have to spend $35m on the tailings dam? Is that by law or under contract? Why do we need to spend $10m a year on C&M? Can't we just have a $100k a year guard at the gate and a $50K technician to go around and lube everthing. Maybe a few Costco tarps for the equipment they don't move to Endako.
Speaking of that, if you are going to go on C&M for five years, sell off some equipment (shovels, trucks) and move the better stuff to Endako. Get Endako producing 3m pounds a quarter for $9 a pound. You can always buy back the trucks and shovels when moly is $20 a pound again.
Get MM running like a swiss watch. Work on negotiating reasonable financing. Plenty of companies with weaker revenue get a much better rate than 9.75% or 12.5%. Get some 7% money locked down for 2017.
Fix this @#$%!
I meant pretty easy to keep this down. I realize it could go lower. They always take it down far past what rational investors think is sane. This way they take out stops and just cause longs to sell in disgust. It is a perfect playbook...I wish I were a hedge fund manager with that kind of power.
Just hold your shares. Don't let them get stolen.
I really hope they do the three leg phase 3 study. It would be awesome if EC145 was showing 25% better OS than DTX and EC1456 was showing 50% better OS than either of the others. Endocyte would have a very compelling argument for approving both drugs.
It is way oversold true, but whatever funds were shorting it the past two days will likely try to hold it down around $6 or as far below that as they can for several days/weeks. This way they get longs to give up hope and sell shares cheap. It is a nasty business...hope they get cancer.
Very likely they will go forward on a phase 3 trial with EC145, EC1456 and DTX. I would also be ok with what you suggested though and throw all the marbles on Tubusylin. Go big or go home. It is likely they could find a partner for EC1456 if the phase 1 results next year on that trial are stellar.
Probably higher number of issued patents by now.
Why wouldn't someone buy this company just for the research. $50 million ex-cash....seems cheap. Some pharma probably spend that much on company picnics.
Are you that stupid or just pretending to be stupid?
Vindafolide doesn't work as well alone because it delivers cell killing drugs only to cancer cells that have a surplus of folate receptors. All of the cancer cells have some folate receptors but the ones that only have a few just get a smaller dose. If you use another drug in conjunction that targets all the cells (but with a weaker effect) then the combination of the two drugs has a chance to kill a larger majority of all cancer cells.
But you knew this and were just pretending to be stupid, right?
Fate would have it that one day a short seller of ECYT is saved by EC1456. Maybe they will come blog about it if the company has not been bought out by then.
I have played this game before too, with both Vanda and Avanir. Both went on to 4x or 5x the level the shorts were able to drive them down to.
This is exactly what they want. They want everyone to capitulate then they cover the naked short shares at $5. Endocyte is just fine, it is ECYT that is messed up.