No way! He sold shares at sub $0.30?
You realize this means he already has chosen TC's path. There is no way he needed the $10,000 he got from the sale.
It is fair criminal how these guys can run a company into the ground. I was hoping TC might turn itself around like Claude has, but I do not think it is possible with the current management.
It didn't even fool me for a nanosecond. The sentiment was strong sell. Your posts will have strong buy even if TC is trading at 0.00025.
I am tempted to buy a few thousand shares back again at this level. Or go out to dinner at the Sizzler. One or the other.
78% of par for the secured 2017
27% of par for the 2018
And....drumroll...23% of par for the 2019.
Yes, someone is offering less than the 2019 will pay out in the next 2 years for the entire bond.
The asks are not much better. Even the secured people are only asking 88% now.
It is ugly out there folks. Pray for rain...acid rain that melts existing copper and creates demand.
Arnold's take is spot on in my opinion, but everyone will choose to believe their own story. I actually think it is a bit of a fairy tale that I as a 2019 bondholder will come out of this with something valuable like new shares in a much lower debt TC. I would love that though.
Essentially you buy TC shares right now as an option that copper is going up soon. It is not an option without an expiration date however. These current shares expire in 2018.
I think it is like one of those prepaid smartphone things you can buy at Wal-Mart?
Well, hindsight IS 20/20, but consider if they did not buy Terrane and had continued to just stockpile money in 2012, 2013 and 2014 while moly was above $10. They would now have around $900 million in cash on hand and two shuttered mines, with zero debt. I don't know about you, but I would like to have $900 million in cash right now with no debt, even if my moly mines are closed.
Note that I am not saying Kevin is stupid. He is probably on a 80 foot yacht somewhere in the US Virgin Islands while we still hold on to his $0.30 stock company.
Well in truth the problem started with Kevin, not Potato Head. Kevin took a company with half a billion in cash and producing millions per year of moly profits (at the time moly was high) and turned it into a company with a billion dollars of debt. They had no business trying to play with the big boys by buying Terrane and trying to build a gold mine. They also spent big bucks at Endako in order to make it a world class facility that will never make a profit.
I don't think so. I am pretty sure Ultra has purchased at least 100k of TC, probably quite a bit more than that. At one point Dragon had 50k to 100k, I had 40k and some options and Ultra had more than we did combined. I think quite a few people on here got a bit over exposed to a single stock. Call it greed or just trying to get back to even by averaging down and hoping for a small pop.
Nobody predicted $0.30 as recently as a year ago. There was a $0.50 call that we all mocked and didn't take seriously.
I thought Molycorp was a bad investment, but this one is actually worse, as they make you *think* the light is still on at the end of the tunnel. If copper stagnates at $2, there will be restructuring. Shareholder destruction, bondholder pain and possibly destruction as well.
Your not going to be able to play this short term. You have to play the long game in TC.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This actually makes some sense, thanks.
The astute investor will be in there snapping up the unsecured right with TC, as the price of the bonds will jump 20 to 30 points after the 30 day period is over.
2019 bonds can be had for about 45% to 50% of par right now and 2018 at 38% to 44%. Really any money you want to dump into TC, dump it into the bonds at this level.
I do not see how we fail to start seeing actual cures (reduction of tumor volume to zero) with these dosing levels. These levels are as high as the ones in the animal trials.
There has to be some firm examining these results and thinking about taking over Endocyte before the stock price can rise.
For some reason it cheers me up to see the 2019 bonds doing what they are supposed to be doing, even if the price you can sell them for is in the toilet.
I am probably not going to post much here anymore (can you hear Ultra cheering?) but just sit on these bonds for several years and let the money come in, then invest it in something less risky, like bitcoins.
I do hope everyone has a good holiday season!
Be nice if they could keep Lang and get rid of TCM and Endako. That would add a few million to the bottom line.
Ok, here is what I am thinking for TC in 2016
230,000 ounces of gold, 80m pounds copper
At $1100 realized price of gold and $2.30 copper, gross sales from MM of roughly $360 million with a cost of $280 million.
$80 million profit from MM operations, ignoring tax and depreciation
This isn't enough to even cover the interest payments on the bonds.
They are going to slip year by year but they can keep out of bankruptcy until the 2017 is due.
You have to wonder when Perron and company are going to realize they need to have a yard sale in order to live past 2017. Things they can sell are 15 to 25% of the remaining gold in a stream, Endako, TC moly operations, Lang, and Berg.
They need to knock the debt down to about $500m total. With $80m profit they could get a good (9%) rate on $500m.
It will be an interesting yard sale. My guess is they sell all the moly operations, Lang, and Berg.
I got a notice the price of the 2019 had declined to 45% of par but if you examine the trade history you see the recent trades were above 50%.
I have put in an order for $10k in face value bonds for $4700 but I expect it to be rejected. Since we just passed the interest payment date, this $4700 will be paid for by the 6 month interest on my existing bonds.
My plan is to re-invest the interest payment back into the 2019 bonds for as long as TC keeps paying me interest.