Goldcorp was the real tip off. They had meetings with TC where TC told them straight up "Look, we are going to run this company into the ground, so you might want to exit at $3 while you can"
They don't care about us. All of the good CEOs will usually buy shares, unless they already are major owners because they founded the company. Corning's board members bought shares. John Fredrickson of Seadrill bought 2 million shares even as oil was going down. Elon Musk buys shares all the time (actually one of the brightest CEOs around and if SpaceX ever goes public I am buying into it no matter what the IPO)
Yes I made a good bit of money on TC trading it (back when I called it my ATM lol). I also made a great deal of money on Gilead.
But then I fooled myself into thinking Perron was up to something that would significantly increase shareholder value. The T-med deal and meeting with bondholders had me seriously thinking a buyout was in the works and I got greedy and increased my holdings to near 50k shares. I have now lost about all of the profit I made trading TC AND Gilead and am flat for the year in those accounts. Now you might say being flat is fine, you are doing a lot better than most, but I don't see it that way. I see it as being up near 60% in those trading accounts during the summer then throwing it all away and being at near 0% for the year. So I am bitter.
I have the day off and nothing better to do except watch my remaining options go further underwater. I am also playing the game Puerto Rico on Brettspielwelt in another window.
Well, they can't pay down the debt now without severe penalties that would far exceed any benefit. They have to wait until sometime in 2015 at the earliest.
I got one for you. Gencore (GENC). Zero debt, cash on hand $95m, market cap $91m, positive earnings. It is one of the strangest stocks on the market. I owned some when it was $7 and had $25m more cash than market cap but sold when it went up to only having $10m more cash than market cap.
carl, let me smash those rose colored glasses for you.
There. Better. Now see what is reality. Endako is a piece of Yahooshit that couldn't turn a profit if they had diamonds mixed in with they're ore (shout out to Ultra!)
Thompson Creek moly mine is going to spend $10m a year on 2 guys and a bobcat, or five guys and a craigslist backhoe, but either way, they are going to spend $10m a year plus any extra work they need to do on the tailings dam. I will be nice and call it $20m a year total for the next 2 years.
Mount Milligan is still not even at 80%. They are hemming and hawing about how they might need a $50m to $75m crusher to get to 100%, justifying that by saying they might be able to exceed 100% some day. We know from past experience that when they price out something at $xx you can multiply that figure by 1.5 to 2, so the real cost of the crusher will be $75m to $150m. It will cost the mine several weeks of limited production, which will hurt some quarter's results for sure. Then they will have some other issue that needs a big purchase, or the miners will require a pub to be built on site for $20m cap-ex.
I am still in it for $1800 on those Jan $2 calls but that is it for me. That is a long way from the near 50,000 shares I used to have. Actually I am not even sure I could get $0.20 each for the calls as the bid is 0.15 and ask is 0.25. Likely when I placed the sell order the bid would drop to $0.10, so call it $900.
I hang around here for $900. Who is more pitiful, me or Ultra?
He makes $521,000 a year. A purchase of 5000 shares would cost him under $10,000, or one week's pay. The message it would send to the market would be worth $10,000,000 to the market cap.
How exactly has Gilead punished you? Did you expect to buy it in the past month and make 100% by Christmas? The stock is up like a gagillion % over the past decade and up quite a bit for 2014.
It will be worse than that. Average gold price is lower and moly is in the toilet. $40 million at best for the 4th quarter, then only $10m to $20m for Q1 2015.
The morons at TC (or not morons, since they all draw a pretty hefty salary and don't invest any of their personal money in TC stock) are great at doing nothing for shareholders.
Claude generated 7m in cash this quarter at these gold prices with a market cap of $34m. If you multiply that by 4 quarters it is pretty close to generating the same in cash per year as the market cap.
$200M in cash flow from MM after or before interest expense? And based on $1160 gold or $1200 gold or ?
Because of the drag of the moly assets, I believe now the actual cash flow after interest expense, tossing $5m down the drain at Endako, and spending $10m at TC will be under $100m. And that is with $1200 gold, $3.10 copper.
With $1000 gold, more like $70m.
Not going bankrupt by any means but certainly not exciting.
It does get exciting if we get back to $14 moly and $1400 gold, but that is looking like rear view mirror stuff now.
I am eying those cheap Jan $8 calls...
VRNG $0.94 per share LOL
Patent trolls lose in today's world
muffin speaks a lot of truth here. I should have realized TC was going nowhere when they failed to do anything about Endako.
If gold drops to $1000 (some are saying $800) and moly drops to $9 (even TC sort of thinks this is happening over the next few years) then all we have is marginal profits from Mount Milligan (maybe $40m a year after debt service) which will be eaten up by $10 mil a year at TC (doing the two men and a bobcat slow strip dance) and $10 mil or more at Endako (who could barely eek a profit with $14 moly).
So maybe we gain $20m to $30m a year. We don't make progress on the debt because the crusher they just had to have went $30m overbudget and caused 3 weeks of downtime.
They might be a decent investment in 2019 or thereabouts. Maybe that will be the year an insider actually buys 100 shares with his/her own money.