I am also going to look at the puts for Jan expiration. At some point if Gilead goes high enough, a $77.50 or $80 put could be cheap enough that I can lock in my gains from my bull call spread by buying a put. (ie, if I can't sell my spread for $2.25 but I can buy a put for $0.20 that is above the higher leg, I have essentially locked in $2.30).
I hear what you are saying and will defend this purchase with the fact that I bought it when Gilead was trading at $70 earlier this year. Had I known Gilead would go to $94 so quickly I would just have purchased the $75 leg and not gone short the $77.50.
$1.90 fill on a $1 investment in a four month period isn't the worst thing.
Getting another $0.60 for fairly low risk (Gilead going back under $80 somewhat unlikely) would also be reasonable.
I do understand time value and intrinsic value. I normally do trade Apple options but have not done so since the split.
I have a bunch of Jan $75/$77.50 call spreads and can't sell them for a decent profit yet because of the bid ask (paid $1 but can't even sell for $2.25).
I can just hold them until expiration and get $2.50 but that means waiting 4 months and waiting through another two earnings.
Be greedy and wait for $2.50 or sell now for less than $2.25? I am leaning toward greed.
"named himself after jar of peanut butter"
Still cracks me up now when I see you post skip.
Sorry, but 20,000 shares on a 3 mil share day couldn't really have kept the price down much. I just decided the $2 jan calls had so little time premium to the stock (trading at $0.95 when you could sell stock at $2.91) that it was advantageous to switch out to some options.
Because for every $1 of moly increase, TC makes an extra $28m a year profit and moly has been moving by several dollars.
Copper has been largely staying in the $3 to $3.20 range which is only a few million extra profit (at $0.20 and current production levels, about $15m extra profit.
Glad you didn't have to sell them because of margin call, but I think even in the $2.70s you were safe from that. I unloaded 20,000 in the 2.90s when the stock didn't do what I thought it should have done after earnings but I rebought 180 Jan $3 calls and sold 60 Sept $3 calls against those. Essentially I am about at the same level as before but with more free cash.
Good luck to you and hope your financial concerns work themselves out for the positive.
Shhh, I sold Muffin Sept $3 calls and he is mad because they are going to expire worthless. He is paying for my child's education. Wait a sec, I don't have kids. Well, he is paying for my snowmobile or quad.
"one of these guy name himself after jar of peanut butter"
I am curious about those 60 Sept $3 calls I sold. Be nice to get called away on them but if not I pocket $900 off of it. Win win.
One analyst has 2014 year earnings at $0.13
Q1 was $0.02, Q2 was $0.10
He really thinks Q3 will be $0.01 and Q4 will be zero?
Are they going to wait until two weeks before earnings like they did in Q2 to raise that figure to a realistic $0.11 to $0.13?
July and August they are selling moly like crazy and should be getting around $13.75 a pound average price based on the one month lag.
None of this matters to the share price but it is interesting.
I said it was the real safe play not the most likely play.
If they got $300m for the moly mines and did not have to sink another dime into them (severance, tailing dam, stripping) then their cash on hand would be $516m. With Milly cash flow positive including debt, they would likely have over $700m cash on hand by 2017 when it is time to refinance. With that much cash they would get great interest rates instead of the payday loan rates they have now.
The safe play. Not the best play or the likely play but the safe play.
Yes, which is why the real safe play is to sell the moly mines (if there is a buyer for $300m) and lock in the future profit from Milly which is more secure. They can always get back into moly sometime in the future once Milly is debt free.
There was a *developing* headline just a minute ago that said Russia was sending in a convoy to Ukraine but now the headline is gone. Maybe pulled because untrue.
TC moly mine goes on C&M, one year price target = $2.82
TC sells moly mines, one year price target = $4
TC buyout, one year price target = $6
TC goes forward with fast phase 8 strop, one year price target = $4
Russia invades Ukraine, starts mild WWIII, gold goes to $2000, copper to $4, moly to $25, TC one year target = $20.
Never mind the if. Looks like Russia is invading so we get to see what metals do in WWIII after all. Grabbing the popcorn.
Was molybdenum in widespread use prior to WWII?
My prediction if Russia invades Ukraine is $1500 gold, $3.75 copper, $18 molybdenum (based on China hoarding and disruptions in supplies). I could have copper and moly totally wrong but I would bet dollars to donuts gold goes much higher than $1300.