Well that sounds depressing. It sounds like the common stock has zero value and the unsecured bonds very little value.
As they edge down in cash, I might try to unload a few of my 2019 if they are in the mid 40s. I don't want to get stuck with stock in TC since Perron will probably stay on running THAT into the ground too.
The 2019 has traded today in pretty good volume (500k for 42 and 50k for 39) which is higher than I thought it would be. Not much trade on the 2018 although it has a bit higher price.
Their plan is hope. Hope for some angel investment bank, or hope for metal pricing to save them.
Their short term plan is to hoard as much cash as possible to make sure they can make payroll as long as possible, in addition to making interest payments on the notes. I would not be greatly surprised to see some bonuses paid out this year due to the great safety record.
I now expect the Nov 2016 note payment to be made, along with the May 2017 payment. A bankruptcy or re-org filing some time in late 2017, possibly missing the Nov 2017 payment on the 2019.
I don't have time to mess with TC today...packing up for our trip across the country to sail in the Florida Keys. Going to do Alaska next year (or the year after if we really like the Keys).
That is kind of grasping at short straws, suggesting manipulated accounting. They have just gotten big, and big ships turn slow.
The above is the best post probably in years. This is likely exactly how things are playing out. Management just hired the consultants so they could not be accused of being complacent. They have no real plan except hope on metal. They do plan to collect paychecks for as long as possible, which means you don't buy debt, you hoard cash for payroll.
I thought Gilead was all doom and gloom because Merck was stealing all their business. $50m is like what Gilead makes in Usbeckibeckistanstan.
You can feel their excitement with 1456 and almost more so with 1169. The CAR T-cell research is just bonus gravy but has the potential to be the real money maker (not just little billions of dollars)
I bought another 3000 shares just now at $3.40 after reading the CC. This is just too cheap for all of the news that is coming out later this year. It really is too cheap at $10 a share, but at cash level it is just stupid cheap.
I would believe #3 back when copper was $3.50 but now I am not sure it is so easy to just go to a bank and refinance when your credit rating is 390
They have to toss the board a bone so it can tell shareholders how hard it worked to maximize their value. If they offer $0.50 a share, it could look bad.
Actually reading some of the other threads I have noted at least four of you with this exact same theory...maybe not so way out there.
A buck a share would be $225m plus if they spent about $200m buying $500m of debt, they then get TC for around $600m out of pocket debt free.
$600m for a $1.5b mine in a safe environment, moly stuff is freebie.
This is so unlikely but sometimes you never know...
Some entity is going to make a lowball offer on TC later this year. That entity has been buying debt instead of TC. Obviously when things get dire toward 2017, shareholders will be willing to take some pittance for fear of getting nothing. So by then this entity owns a quarter, third, half of the outstanding debt, offers TC a buck a share, and ends up sitting very pretty.
This is kind of how I would do it if I were a vulture with some big bucks.
Executives hired them not for TC but to see how the executives could come out of this mess with some profit if TC goes under.
I worry that it could get sold for less than it really is worth, as these things do happen. There may be investors who would take $20 a share even though it is worth $40
Me like. I just added 5,000 at 3.63, which is a great entry but it may go lower with the Trump factor and all.
I might sell these at $15 when they partner and hold the rest for the mid $40s.