Yep. If they had any good track record with upgrades or new capability purchases, I would say yes on the crusher, but right now all they seem to be able to do when they upgrade is spend more money with little to show for it.
Proceeding with Phase 8 is something they know how to do. They know how to move dirt from one place to another. Stick with what you know.
Yes, this is the problem we sometimes get ourselves into when we try to value TC as a sum of parts. We think that just because you could not build MM for less than 2B that it is worth 2B to an outside party.
It is like my house. My insurance company has me insure it for the rebuild cost of $550,000 but the house only has a market value today of around $300,000. I can't sell it for $550,000 even though that is what it would cost to build a similar one.
Until phase 8 plans are announced, TC is fairly valued at around $3 a share and is a discounted buy at $2,80 (but not with zero risk)
Unfortunately, what you describe not only happens in mining stocks, but in almost all other stocks. It makes me a bit sick to buy index funds on things like the S&P500 because I know I am supporting so many companies that never pay out a dividend. At least Microsoft, dog that it is, starting paying back some cash to shareholders years ago, as did Cisco. Some companies, like Seadrill, probably pay too much back (near 12%), but a good 3% to 4% dividend is healthy IMO.
Share buybacks are ok too if it is not coupled with too much giving of stock and options to employees. Berkshire has never paid a dividend but it would be hard to argue that Warren has run the company poorly.
TC had some 700 million in cash a few years ago. They could have paid a special one time dividend of $4 or $5 per share but instead chose to put it all on a roulette wheel buying a huge mining claim package with little experience in setting up that large of an operation. Spending so much on Endako and then spending so much on Milligan was just an epic fail.
Wow muffin did your picture get leaked with the others on the Fappening? You seem upset.
I very well did sell shares at $3.01. I also sold some at $2.96 and just a couple thousand at $3.05.
Well, 660mm in shareholder equity, 600mm in net debt, yes that is about 1.3B
The problem is with no moly (as stupid said), then TC and Endako are liabilities not assets. They are a drain on the cash flow if TC stops producing moly (I don't think it will).
The stock is fairly priced at $3, maybe as high as $3.50 until Perron tells us what his plan is. Because people get tired of waiting for him to tell us, the stock falls below fair value to $2.78 and carpet baggers like me can make money on it.
There are misses and then there are misses. I have already missed a large portion of the ride up on Gilead because I sold some to buy TC. I have the strategy that it is better to make money now than hope to make money in the future.
Yep, it is fairly priced at $3 a share based on no future moly production.
This is why when it dips down to the $2.60 to $2.78 range it is a compelling buy for a quick flip at the $3 price. You get to trade the stock based on it ranging from underpriced to fairly priced.
Other stocks are so highly inflated (Tesla, Amazon, Netflix) that you can only trade from grossly overvalued to obscenely overvalued. It is not nearly so comfortable trading that range than trading the undervalued to fairly valued range.
Seemingly nothing moves it way or up way down but it has reliably been going up to near $3 for ages then falling back down to 2.80, or even 2.60 before climbing back to $3 again. It is a trader's wet dream.
I buy and sell all the time. I need to refill though after selling a lot at $3.01 a few days ago.
This stock is my ATM machine.
2.78 should fill, seems the bid is stuck around there.
See that 1 Jan $2 call purchased today at $0.95? That is mine baby!
(I need it to go to $1.05 just to break even on the commission...ridiculous)
I guess I should have done "no partial fills" but those type of orders never fill.
Yeah I know. I bumped my jan $2 call purchase up to $0.95 and it filled 1 stupid call. What idiot sold me just 1 call? (Guess I am an idiot too)
I think we get it today, don't you? Market is closed Monday so this is a very long weekend. Around noon the market should start selling off as everyone exits positions for the holiday. If TC has not recovered above $2.90 by then, it should fall to $2.82 but maybe as low as $2.78.
It is not a huge deal if I don't get any today at $2.79 but that is my target price.
I may buy some common at $2.79 today. That is $0.22 below where I sold a batch a few days ago and a significant difference.
Bad news could just be a 100 point drop in the regular market. I think that would get us to 2.79.
Yes, but I am eyeing the $2 calls today. I have a bid in for 50 of them at $0.85 which perhaps has pulled the price down a tad. At some point I will try to raise it to $0.90 and nab them, paying a nickel time premium.
Invariably TC will go back up to 2.95 to 3.05 over the next month which is where I will sell more Jan $3 for $0.40.
I guess this is why I am up 60% this year when all of my stocks are doing rather poorly :-)