I got in Gilead at the recent dip to the $65 area. While I am happy with the short term return and excited about the longer term prospects, it looks like ISIS could be what Gilead was in 2000 or so. If you had purchased Gilead back then with even a small amount of money you would be discussing which yacht to buy as a backup to your main one.
Any of you in ISIS?
Shouldn't make a difference in the stock price. We are in care and maintenance don't ya know?
You sound like a homophobe, but even so, I don't care if the execs have 6 sheep in their bedroom. If they can buy stuff like Sovaldi and make up their purchase price in just one year of sales, I will buy their stock.
Yeah I am not getting your point. Who cares about the personal lifestyle of the execs? Steve Jobs was a complete s... but look at where Apple went from when he came back to his death.
I don't see these lawsuits ever really benefitting shareholders. It isn't like the money just magically appears even if they win. Most of the people who bought big during the class action timeframe are still holding shares. By the time the law firm takes it's 30% cut they will net lose money on the drop in current share price.
You may be right. I can think of convoluted reasons why Perron went to such extensive trouble to get rid of the Tmeds but I keep coming back to one thing: Buyout negotiations.
I was trying to establish a bottom lowball number to show that TC is so incredibly undervalued. They could easily post $220m in revenue by speeding up a few shipments and selling some moly stockpile.
I have traded the August $77.50 calls eight times in the past month with positive results.
Last trade was today, sold them for $5.60 after buying them yesterday for $5. Yes it is only $0.60 but when you trade 30 of them it turns into real money. Lovely to get a 10% move on a 1% move in the stock.
Hey, you never know. They have sunk many hundreds of millions into Molycorp...perhaps they want a profitable gold/copper mine plus a free roaster and free moly assets (plus the Berg claim).
If they were to take a 10% stake it would kill shorts in a heartbeat.
I am bullish but $5.50 is a tad high near term unless there really are buyout talks.
$4 near term I could believe but there will be profit taking at that level.
That being said, if a outside active investor decided to come in and grab $50m of TC stock, the short squeeze would be epic.
As Ultra pointed out in some other post I have misplaced, the diluted share count should remain at 171.6M for Q2 calculations (or close to that). 171.6M was what was used in the Q1 report to calculate earnings per share.
I need to point out one more thing. From the earnings call:
"We have seen in April and May an improvement in hourly throughput as well as recoveries as well availability. So yes we’ve seen improvement in those key areas."
I was using three shipments based on Feb and March throughput and recovery. It is possible they will either have slightly larger shipments in April and May or they will have enough to actually make the third shipment early enough in June to get a provisional payment in June.
Either of those things could bump the revenue above 200M and make for a knock your socks off quarter catching analysts so off guard they will come to the earnings call in flip flops.
Three shipments in Q2, three payments recorded in Q2 (April, May and June payment for March, April, May shipments).
Copper sales: $45m
Gold sales: $36m
Moly sales: $102m (8m pounds at $12.75 avg. price)
Total Q2 revenue: $187m
Q2 operating cost: $145m
Non-GAAP adjusted net income: $42m or $0.24 per diluted share (171.6m shares)
Interest expense: $23.6m
Adjusted net income including interest expense: $18.4m or $0.10 per diluted share.
Revenue of $187m represents an increase of 59% YoY from Q2 2013 revenue of $117.8m
This is my LOWBALL estimate for revenue and earnings. I am upgrading TC to stronger buy and a one month price target of $3.50.
Well, 52K for sure. That would give me 100,000 shares, which is what I need for a million dollar profit when TC hits $13.