At least the bond prices are increasing now. I was starting to wonder if the 12.5% return 2019 might eventually get to 12.5% of par at the rate they were falling :-)
I show a paper loss on my 2019 bonds, but in this case it actually is only a paper loss, as I get paid $7500 a year no matter what the bid/ask is on the bonds. It is not like a dividend that can be cut, or shares in a company that can be diluted. Bankruptcy is the risk, and TC is not going bankrupt.
I hope some of you picked up those juicy bonds when they were 50% of par.
They have to keep spending more and more on content because people now watch an entire series in a weekend, or even a day. When you dribble a new series every few months, will it be enough?
Sure, you can dredge up an old series, but how many people really want to pay to watch The Brady Bunch.
House of Cards cost them $100m. If they want to keep churning out that type of content, they will need to significantly raise the monthly fee. Internet providers have to shoulder all of this bandwidth...how long before they decide to raise their fee?
Serious. I hate to see anyone suffer like Stan is.
Beats earnings every time but market is convinced NEXT quarter will be the quarter they miss. Then they beat that quarter and the NEXT quarter has to be the one they miss, just has to be.
In between quarters, the stock sneaks up to a new level. Apple went from 400B market cap to 700B while everyone knew they would be missing earnings soon.
Probably. Or maybe it goes to $4, then pops 289% and moves to $15.50
2019 had strong volume around 70% of par, which while still ridiculously low, is off of the bottom.
2017 went up to 96, 97% of par.
Maybe this was a reaction to copper's fall being halted.
If the 2019 gets back in the 90s I will consider buying some common stock again.
I purchased 20 Sept $110 call options for $6 Friday but got nervous Monday and sold 10 August $110 calls for $5.
Now what to do here. I was expecting good earnings but had hedged for the traditional drop after earnings.
Wish I had not wrote those August $110, as they will likely go from $5 to $8 or $9 today.
This company is run so poorly now.
Bonds are still in the toilet. Until the bonds recover to reasonable levels, there is no faith in the company and thus nothing to drive the stock price back to "reasonable value".
I wouldn't buy any stock where people are afraid to buy bonds in it that pay a 48% return.
I am worried maybe Stan lied?
Sybs, how come you sometimes sound so rational, like when you were listing rules by which to trade options if one were foolish enough to choose that path, yet other times you sound like a loon.
Netflix is going to fall, probably back to the high 90s, but it isn't going bankrupt or delisting. The market is not going to drop 75% anytime soon. I would be shocked if it dropped more than 10% from here.
Do you just post the outrageous stuff to be amuzing?
I should have bought them today...I bet they are worth $3 in a few days the way FCX is tanking.
Unfortunately, FCX management was corrupt and rewarded themselves with a bailout purchase of oil and gas that they had a major stake.
Without that fiasco, they would easily have weathered this downtrend in copper and gold.
If it is true that the 2017 was artificially inflated due to TC's purchases, then there is great opportunity here over the next few weeks to make some decent, fairly safe cash. Buy the 2017 at 88% to 90% of par and sell them this quarter at 102% of par when TC starts buying again.
You just know they will do that, since it is about their only option now.
If I am going to try to hold puts or calls close to the money through expiration, I usually have a diagonal going. This protects me from adverse news over the weekend, because the longer dated option protects my expiring position.
Those two bonds are massively different.
The 2017 is secured by pretty much all of TC's assets
The 2018 is like a credit card debt
The yield is misleading also. While it is true that both bonds now pay a similar current yield (10.57 vs 11.66), the 2018 pays a massive return at par call because it is trading so far below par.
I like the 2017 better now as I believe TC's assets do have value, and you get paid 10.57% to wait on either a metal price recovery or you get to own a stake in a reorganized new TC with little debt.
If they run the business for 20 years without making any significant profit, then yeah, they are crazy.
2.) I have violated that before, but it was back pre-split on Apple when it was $400. I was 30% of my account in a option spread that made me a small fortune
3) Hate weeklies. I have considered selling them though.
4) Definitely. The only way to make money.
There were a few trades that did go through near 50 cents but the significant ask was around 73% of par for the 2019...still very bad though.
I always post what the ask is...as you say, the bid is somewhat meaningless. I could put a bid in for a buck.