I did sell another $20k at the same price, but there are no current bids for any more so I cannot "get out today" even if I were so inclined.
I just sold $20k of the 2019 for 42% of par (only bid). I did a reality check and determined I don't need the worry of how a TC bankruptcy or reorg settles out while on the road in our RV. It will take awhile to unload all $230k but maybe this price will hold for a bit. Copper back down around $2.13, TC not buying debt, insiders selling at a few cents, if the warning lights were any brighter we would all be blind.
It is rats leaving the ship. I just sold 20k of my 2019 for 42% of par (it was the only bid for them). I am getting out as fast as I can (which will be slow).
Muffin, have not seen you around in ages.
I don't think it has been 6 years, that is pre MM, back when TC was mining $35 a pound moly.
The company is going down the tubes unless they pull a miracle but it is still hanging in there and you shouldn't berate people for being interested in what is left of their money.
I need about 50% to break even, or I need 44% and November's payment. I am going to hold my 2019s just a little longer and hope.
I don't really have a great idea for another investment with the potential for high return anyway. Most of the stock market is really high.
Well, today I would not sell them for what is being offered (40.9) when someone is offering 42.5 for the 2018. That is just silly IMO.
I might sell some after the Nov payment or slightly before that if they spike into the high 50s.
I checked today and you can sell 2018 at the ask of 42.50 and you can buy 2019 at the bid of 42.21
Only about 100k but still. If you could sell 2018 you don't own and then buy the 2019 at 42.21, you could then service the 7.375% note payment with interest from your 12.5% note and pocket the difference, with no risk (assuming the notes are on equal footing in a restructure).
I would not buy TC today with a 15-20 multiple. They have to build up trust to get that type of multiple. Try more like 7 to 10.
I am not sure, maybe? Would the 2018 holders settle for a partial payment knowing the 2019 holders were still getting 12.5% interest for another year? It just seems both notes need to be addressed at the same time in order to make negotiations work.
In some sort of buyout, both notes would be paid off at the same time.
Again, you are assuming the 2018 can get "paid off" in 2018 while they are still servicing the 2019. I am going on the premise that they must address both notes at the same time, in late 2017 at the latest, thus the 2019 has a higher yield to maturity.
The caveat would be if the 2018 somehow come ahead of the 2019 in a restructure.
Well, only the 2019 traded today, for 42% on $790k face but both the 2018 and 2019 are very close in value right now.
If a restructure were a year out, the 2019 would trade about 5 points higher than the 2018. That they trade the same is troubling as it may mean we are a lot closer than 12 months to a restructure event. Or it could just be noise.
On the positive side, at least some people believe the unsecured is worth more than 42% in a restructure.
KKD just got acquired for just a 25% premium to recent levels. I would be upset as an investor if I had bought KKD in mid 2013 at $25.
So how does that work? How can you go bankrupt and keep shares? Was it not a real bankruptcy? Did American Airline bondholders eventually get paid in full or something?
Stephata, take a break from looking at the price. It is either going to be a winner or not, but don't stress out so much about it. Management sounded excited, almost to the point where I would not be very surprised to see some more insider buying over the next couple of months. I think they realize they are on to something big. Nothing in life is guaranteed though.
I read up on a few of the Moelis deals.
It looks like secured bondholders usually get paid in full, unsecured bondholders get about 50% to 65%, mostly in the form of a new common share, and existing shareholders get a tiny amount of new common shares (around 6%).
This was with MACH Gen. There are very few deals Moelis has been involved in where unsecured debt got nothing.
$90 was a good buy, $80 is a steal, $70 is back up the truck, $60 you start to get worried, $50 you really start to get worried, $40 you sell, $100 you wish you had bought, $120 you wish you had not sold at $90.
I think I agree with Ultra. If they manage to pay off the secured, they will not be able to get the unsecured for 45 to 50% of par. Instead, they will offer to extend the unsecured notes to 2021, maybe even 2023. Hopefully for them they manage to extend them without the harsh pre-payment penalty and they run the mine correctly from 2018 to 2023 to generate enough cash flow to pay off the bonds at full value.