I wish this would continue a bit. I would love to see $1250 gold and $3 copper. Pair that with a $1.39 a share TC and it would make a great Christmas present.
Gold $1216 as of this post. Copper $2.91.
Yesterday Gold $1203 and Copper $2.94.
Performing as expected, gold making up for depressed price in copper.
I bought 1000 today at $1.39...not because I really needed them, but just because I wanted to steal someone's shares for less than even fify thinks they are worth.
Yes ok, I agree with you there and am happy with this slow strip dance.
But can we please take old yellow Endako out back and shoot it? Foaming at the mouth it is.
What lesson? A lady in our state won $90m powerball...I guess she made a remarkable call too.
What if something goes wrong with the dollar. 20T debt is getting closer and closer, and that is a figure that is bound to make headlines because the media likes even round numbers. So many things going on right now, Russia, Middle East. Copper could drop to $2 and then be at $4 the next month. Gold could go from $1200 to $800 to $5000 (even higher if priced in dollars and somehow faith was lost in the dollar as the world's reserve currency).
You are the one who is stupid. Everything goes great until one day it doesn't. Seems like easy money shorting Seadrill at $12 until a war breaks out in the Middle East and oil zooms back to over $100. But something like that would never happen huh?
I don't blame someone from leaving this industry alone but you are foolish to think there is no risking in naked shorting this or any stock (except Radio Shack...you can short Radio Shack with no fear).
I would love to short steel right here. Been looking at X but it has already dropped today to $30. Still, that doesn't mean it won't fall to $15. Imagine buying the $25 puts 6 months out for a buck and then having them worth $10 in 2 months (this is what happened with Seadrill puts)
Hmm, unfortunate. Sounds like real costs of about $15M a year for TC just to keep things on idle and do some prep work for eventual restart.
$15M is a lot when your whole market cap is $300M Heck, you could buy back 5% of the company per year with $15M.
Right now they can get a 100% guaranteed return of about 9% by saving up money to pay off some of the bonds. For every $100m of bonds they pay off, they make $9m more per year in cash flow. That is a million pounds of moly at current prices.
If they can pay off $300m in bonds, that is like producing 3m pounds of moly for $0 all in sustaining cost. Where else are you going to find a mine like the bond mine where you can have a $0 all in cost of production?
I think those costs are after the by-product credit. Pinto valley only produces a few thousand ounces of gold for 40k tons of copper produced. Not much by-product credit in 2000 ounces of gold...
So what is the lowest figure they could go with and still get some value of work done? $5m a year?
I would be ok with them spending $5m a year at TC, getting things prepped for better days in moly if they would give serious consideration to selling out Endako to their partner...or just give it away and sign a deal for royalty payments on future moly production.
I want all of the cash flow from MM to go toward paying down the debt. Lang roasting and silver credits could fund the $5m a year maintenance costs on TC.
In the event moly goes to $25 and they regret selling Endako, they can always sell Berg at a much higher price, since it is a copper mining claim with strong molybdenum byproducts.
What I envision in this C&M is a few guys going around and greasing zerk fittings, firing up some motors and pumps, grading the roads every once in awhile, and repairing drainage issues to keep the pit walls stable. I could see all of that taking up a few million. I don't see them being able to hang a "keep out" sign on the mine gate and spend $0 without coming back to a complete wreck in five years....it would become a local shooting range full of old shot up washing machines and a swimming hole in the summer in the phase 7 pit.
1000 shares of TC at $1.39.
260,000 ounces of gold mined per year for the first 5 years of full production (maybe a bit more if recoveries improve).
52.5% goes to Royal at $435 for a $60 million dollar payment.
90,000,000 ounces of copper mined during the first 5 years of full production
$261,000,000 at $2.90 copper.
That is $321,000,000 of revenue costs around $260,000,000 to produce = $61,000,000 cash flow.
After $300m of bonds retired, remaining ~$600m of long term debt financed at average 8% = $48m
Leaves us with $13m for moly C&M and 123,500 ounces of free gold per year.
226m shares outstanding, so every year we produce about 0.55 ounces of gold per 1000 shares.
10k shares and 10 years gives you 55 ounces of gold, plus whatever the moly assets are worth then.
With oil at $62, iron ore at a 5 year low (so cheap steel), and shutting down of high cost mines, I do not see MM production costs going anywhere but down. Add to that Perron's conservative nature and maybe we see $0.50 copper cash costs.
If things can just hold out metal wise until part of the debt is retired and part is refinanced at 7%, this is going to be a gold mine.
I paid $1200 for 16 megabytes of computer memory in 1995, today I can buy 16 gigabytes for $120.
It is catching a falling knife but at this price level TC is a butter knife.
Anyway, we will know more next year at this time how metals and TC performed.
I have a bid in for 1000 at $1.39, 1000 at 1.29, 1.19, 1.09, and finally 0.99.
5000 shares additional. Just bottom fishing and fartin around.
It has worked ok pretty well holding.