I checked today and you can sell 2018 at the ask of 42.50 and you can buy 2019 at the bid of 42.21
Only about 100k but still. If you could sell 2018 you don't own and then buy the 2019 at 42.21, you could then service the 7.375% note payment with interest from your 12.5% note and pocket the difference, with no risk (assuming the notes are on equal footing in a restructure).
I would not buy TC today with a 15-20 multiple. They have to build up trust to get that type of multiple. Try more like 7 to 10.
I am not sure, maybe? Would the 2018 holders settle for a partial payment knowing the 2019 holders were still getting 12.5% interest for another year? It just seems both notes need to be addressed at the same time in order to make negotiations work.
In some sort of buyout, both notes would be paid off at the same time.
Again, you are assuming the 2018 can get "paid off" in 2018 while they are still servicing the 2019. I am going on the premise that they must address both notes at the same time, in late 2017 at the latest, thus the 2019 has a higher yield to maturity.
The caveat would be if the 2018 somehow come ahead of the 2019 in a restructure.
Well, only the 2019 traded today, for 42% on $790k face but both the 2018 and 2019 are very close in value right now.
If a restructure were a year out, the 2019 would trade about 5 points higher than the 2018. That they trade the same is troubling as it may mean we are a lot closer than 12 months to a restructure event. Or it could just be noise.
On the positive side, at least some people believe the unsecured is worth more than 42% in a restructure.
KKD just got acquired for just a 25% premium to recent levels. I would be upset as an investor if I had bought KKD in mid 2013 at $25.
So how does that work? How can you go bankrupt and keep shares? Was it not a real bankruptcy? Did American Airline bondholders eventually get paid in full or something?
Stephata, take a break from looking at the price. It is either going to be a winner or not, but don't stress out so much about it. Management sounded excited, almost to the point where I would not be very surprised to see some more insider buying over the next couple of months. I think they realize they are on to something big. Nothing in life is guaranteed though.
I read up on a few of the Moelis deals.
It looks like secured bondholders usually get paid in full, unsecured bondholders get about 50% to 65%, mostly in the form of a new common share, and existing shareholders get a tiny amount of new common shares (around 6%).
This was with MACH Gen. There are very few deals Moelis has been involved in where unsecured debt got nothing.
$90 was a good buy, $80 is a steal, $70 is back up the truck, $60 you start to get worried, $50 you really start to get worried, $40 you sell, $100 you wish you had bought, $120 you wish you had not sold at $90.
I think I agree with Ultra. If they manage to pay off the secured, they will not be able to get the unsecured for 45 to 50% of par. Instead, they will offer to extend the unsecured notes to 2021, maybe even 2023. Hopefully for them they manage to extend them without the harsh pre-payment penalty and they run the mine correctly from 2018 to 2023 to generate enough cash flow to pay off the bonds at full value.
I went back before the Olympics. I remember trying the different formulations of Coke from around the world and the Coke spitting liquid display. (We did go to a few Olympic events right before we left Atlanta too).
What is the Hive? It sounds like something to do with yellow jackets but not heard of it. Has been 20 years since I was on campus.
Heh, my nephew is a dawg so can't be too down on em.
Shining is when you hunt deer at night using a spotlight. Very very bad if you get caught by the game warden. They take your truck, gun and wife.
The No Name Pub is on my list...I just found out about it a few months ago.
I think I have an account on SA, if not I will make one.
Cool! I am a ramblin wreck so quite familiar with ATL (at least ATL up until 1996). I will definitely try to meet up with you if you are available. We are in a custom built RV (we designed and built ourselves!) pulling a small sailboat, so can't exactly park at the Varsity. We do carry dual sport motorcycles in the garage of the RV, so we could park outside Atlanta and drive to where you want to meet for lunch/dinner.
It will probably be some time in November. We want to be sippin mojitos in Key West (or one of the other keys, not sure) by Christmas but I have to spend some time with the parents in south Ga (maybe thanksgiving with them plus a week). My brothers have a farm down there so might get in some deer hunting (they are always getting caught shining, the rednecks, but I love em).
Was thinking of going from the Great Lakes in July/August, up to Maine in Sept, but maybe that is too ambitious? Then drive from Maine down to Georgia in October/November. I also have to work some gold panning into this trip somewhere, but I am going to store most of my equipment for the trip to Alaska next year.
I didn't get the impression you were picking on me. It is a good question you asked, but the people who really will decide are the big boys who hold millions of these notes.
I know about as much as Jon Snow.
I grew up in Georgia, so Waffle House is like mana. Scattered, smothered covered, chunked. I plan to hit about 5 of them as we drive from Seattle to the Florida Keys this summer/fall (going to go along the Great Lakes this summer since the south is too Yahoodamn hot until November).