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Triangle Petroleum Corporation (TPLM) Message Board

limitspecs38 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 7, 2014 4:37 PM Member since: Sep 6, 2012
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  • The International Energy Agency said most of North Dakota’s vast Bakken field “remains profitable at or below $42 per barrel. The break-even price in McKenzie County, the most productive county in the state, is only $28 per barrel.”

    Efficiency is improving and drillers are switching to lower-cost spots, confronting Opec with a moving target. “The (price) floor is falling and may not be nearly as firm as the Saudi view assumes,” said Citigroup.

    Mr Morse says the “full cycle” cost for shale production is $70 to $80, but this includes the original land grab and infrastructure. “The remaining capex required to bring on an additional well is far lower, and could be as low as the high-$30s range,” he said.

    Critics of US shale may have misunderstood its economics. There is a fast decline in output from new wells but this is offset by a “long-tail phase” for a growing number of legacy wells. The Bakken field has already reached 1.1m bpd, and this is expected to double again over the next five years.

    Other oil projects around the world may be more vulnerable to a price squeeze, including the North Sea, the ultra-deepwater ventures in the Atlantic off Brazil and Angola, Canadian oil sands, or Russia’s contentious plans for the Arctic in the “High North”. But the damage will be gradual.

    In the meantime, oil below $70 is already playing havoc with budgets across the global petro-nexus. The fiscal break-even cost is $161 for Venezuela, $160 for Yemen, $132 for Algeria, $131 for Iran, $126 for Nigeria, and $125 for Bahrain, $111 for Iraq, and $105 for Russia, and even $98 for Saudi Arabia itself, according to Citigroup.

    Opec may not be worried about countries such as Nigeria, but even there a full-blown economic and political crisis could turn the north into a Jihadi stronghold under Boko Haram.

  • Reply to

    Over supply of crude in October just 200,000 bbl

    by winallin12 Nov 28, 2014 11:17 AM
    limitspecs38 limitspecs38 Dec 3, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    According to the Energy Information Administration, the third quarter of 2014 reported global oil supply totaling 92.55 million barrels per day (mb/d). This represents a 1% increase over the 91.64 mb/d reported for the second quarter and was 2% greater than the 90.71 mb/d seen the same quarter last year. Demand for that oil, however, came in at 92.31 mb/d, which is just 1.2% larger than the same period last year and 0.3% lower than total supply. Put another way, there were 240,000 extra barrels per day (globally) than there was demand for, pretty much all of which can be attributed to a 1.51 mb/d increase stemming from the U.S. as hydraulic fracturing continues to increase output.

  • Reply to

    Rock Pile sale effort

    by pc4me58 Dec 2, 2014 10:56 AM
    limitspecs38 limitspecs38 Dec 2, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    I hear you pc..........RockPile/TPLM is not folding up the tent....and yes, stock price has been slammed........RP business has been strong enough to add a 3rd spread in September......there are 600+ Bakken wells as of late October that have been drilled ($ already spent} and need fracking......Bakken drilling also is not closing shop - slow down - yes....America drillers want market share as does Saudi and the larger and healthier drillers will continue to drill thus more wells to frack......only the smaller, weaker, less funded drillers are in danger...........

  • Reply to

    Rock Pile sale effort

    by pc4me58 Dec 2, 2014 10:56 AM
    limitspecs38 limitspecs38 Dec 2, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    pc, my point is that the only fact you/we have is that TPLM "began seeking an advisor...." no mention of an attempted sale........if you keep reading you will find that TPLM CEO stated that RockPile would be spun off or IPO'd.............the outright sale of RP has tax consequences and is the least probable scenario............

  • Reply to

    Rockpile Sell?

    by alsteele_99 Dec 1, 2014 3:05 PM
    limitspecs38 limitspecs38 Dec 2, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    pc, you assume wrong. If RockPile business had slowed, they would not have added a 3rd spread in September........As of late October there were 600+ bakken wells waiting to be fracked........also, please advise where you find that TPLM attempted to sell RP............that's a lie............

  • Reply to

    TPLM cost to produce - $52.08 boe....

    by limitspecs38 Nov 26, 2014 8:41 AM
    limitspecs38 limitspecs38 Nov 26, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Nov. 20 Seeking Alpha article "3 Pillars of Success"......

    "If you think that BOEs distort the true cost of oil extraction (like me) and want to try to back out the natural gas expenses to get just the production cost for a barrel of oil you can. I like to use this number as the baseline to compare that to the price of oil to see what they must sell oil at to make an operating profit. I have calculated in the most recent quarter that the cost per barrel is $52.06 whereas the year before it was $55.07. No matter how you look at costs they are going down for Triangle." Less

  • down from $55+ last year.......the benefits of being fully integrated via their RockPile fracking division and their Caliber pipeline division.........currently gathering/selling 90% of their produced nat gas........time it takes to drill wells has been reduced to 18 days vs 29 days 2 years ago......

    yep, we'll take $75-80 oil for now but will go higher in the future as it always does.........

  • Reply to

    Added More Today!

    by mikeinwestsac Nov 24, 2014 8:43 PM
    limitspecs38 limitspecs38 Nov 25, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    Nov 20 article - "3 Pillars of Success"

    "If you think that BOEs distort the true cost of oil extraction (like me) and want to try to back out the natural gas expenses to get just the production cost for a barrel of oil you can. I like to use this number as the baseline to compare that to the price of oil to see what they must sell oil at to make an operating profit. I have calculated in the most recent quarter that the cost per barrel is $52.06 whereas the year before it was $55.07. No matter how you look at costs they are going down for Triangle." Less

  • limitspecs38 limitspecs38 Nov 22, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    win, that is true concerning OPEC's lack of discipline..........The SA article also talked at length on the weak seasonal demand period we are currently in and concluded:

    "With the end of shoulder season and gasoline production expected to begin cranking up next month (December) crude stockpiles should soon start to draw down from today's burdensome levels. This factor alone should begin to shore up crude prices in the coming 4-8 weeks.

    In the meantime, a production cut in this month's OPEC meeting would be a boon to oil prices. We don't want to bet on that, however, and neither should you. If it happens, great."

    "

  • limitspecs38 limitspecs38 Nov 22, 2014 7:35 AM Flag

    Comforting to know that TPLM's cost to produce is in the low $50's boe..........

  • OPEC ramping up production to near all time highs in September, October (purposely) coinciding with US Seasonal Weak Demand does two things for OPEC.

    1.It sends the message "we are still in charge here" and shows the rest of the world who still runs the show.

    2.It gives US producers, speculators and oilmen pause in starting and pursuing new ventures, wells and production. It can even put some existing ones out of business. This is especially true for smaller, marginal players in which cost to produce a barrel of oil can reach $75. At a price of $100 per barrel, they get rich. At $70, they go bankrupt.

    While this muscle flexing may have little effect on long-term US oil production, OPEC hopes the short-term psychological effects will slow industry growth in the US for a bit. It is no coincidence that OPEC output levels reached peaks in September and October - a weak demand season for crude in the US - therefore making prices most susceptible to a tumble.............

    However, OPEC countries cannot live long term with $75 oil.................

  • Nov 20 article - "3 Pillars of Success"

    "If you think that BOEs distort the true cost of oil extraction (like me) and want to try to back out the natural gas expenses to get just the production cost for a barrel of oil you can. I like to use this number as the baseline to compare that to the price of oil to see what they must sell oil at to make an operating profit. I have calculated in the most recent quarter that the cost per barrel is $52.06 whereas the year before it was $55.07. No matter how you look at costs they are going down for Triangle."

  • I thought shale drillers shut it all down.......what's up with that?

  • down $600 million due to lower prices............WLL/KOG (large TPLM customer), OAS and all the other TPLM 10 x 3rd party customers still drilling.............who's gonna frack all these newly drilled wells plus the 600+ well backlog?

  • as of mid October - up from 500 in May. Don't believe drilling came to a sudden halt so there will be a large backlog and a lotta fracking work for a long time to come and ditto with Caliber........

  • 57% came from RockPile and Caliber.............Rockpile since has added a 4th spread and Caliber signed up 3 additional (6 total) service agreements from 3rd parties.....

  • TPLM originally issued production guidance for the FY which ends January 31, 2015 at 10,500 boepd - 11,500 boepd. Then several months ago, they increased guidance to 11,500 boepd - 12,500 boepd. Now, in their latest October presentation, production is at 13,000 boepd with 3+ months remaining in the FY

    Should get to at least 15,000 boepd by fiscal year end.................

  • limitspecs38 by limitspecs38 Oct 23, 2014 6:57 PM Flag

    per 10/23 NDIC..............

    #28172 - TRIANGLE USA PETROLEUM CORPORATION, WAHLSTROM 152-102-34-27-4H, LOT3 3-151N-102W, MCKENZIE CO., 955 BOPD, 1716 BWPD - BAKKEN

    #28173 - TRIANGLE USA PETROLEUM CORPORATION, WAHLSTROM 152-102-34-27-3H, LOT3 3-151N-102W, MCKENZIE CO., 836 BOPD, 1481 BWPD - BAKKEN

  • company that drills?

    This past Q, Rockpile generated $102 million in revenue vs $80 million on the drilling side. A 4th RP spread just started this month and a 5th spread in 2Q next year so lotta growth going forward.

    The drilling side, however is growing as well.......produced 10,551 boepd average production this past Q vs 8129 boepd the Previous Q.......lotta growth as well.............

    OT - EBAY news today - spinning off PAYPAL and stock up big on the news..............

TPLM
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