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Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG Message Board

linusfm 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 8, 2013 5:48 AM Member since: Feb 18, 2009
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  • With more and more states in the US and countries in Europe looking to collect more (or rather starting to) sales taxes (and in the EU income tax) from AMZN, which to me is a clear sign of losing some of the advantage over other retailers, would that not mean a lower future margin? In CA sales tax is around 10%, if that is gone, in many cases that is what AMZN used as a strategic advantage. So should that mean that the margin has to come down in order to compete, especially on big ticket items?

    Either way, I think AMZN has done a lot of innovative things and is constantly improving in terms of faster delivery, no doubt a great company, but the valuation seems very aggressive even for a diversified retailer and Business fields. With any valuation model I use I cannot get to that market cap. DCF, PE multiples, etc. There really seems to be basically no economies of scale, sales are rising, but yet the margin improvement is not there over the last 3 years. After the move over $360 I went short because I felt it feels a Little like 1999 for this stock. Again, great company, but not a great stock.

  • This company has long been under the radar. They have the best product and service in a growing field world wide and now they started the expansion strategy this year. This can become a very high market cap stock within the next 2-3 years if the strategy plays out. The stock has risen a lot in the last 9 months, but taking into consideration, that EBITDA forecast for 2013, it is only trading at a multiple of about 2 to EBITDA, which means regardless of the past performance, it is still a very cheap stock because the data has changed significantly over the last 9 months. If they play their cards right, there is no obstacle why this should not be trading at an average EBITDA multiple, it can very well be trading at 60 in three years. I am a long term investor, so I do not care too much about short term drops and pumper and dumper talk from people that are short or are looking to make a quick profit. Solid companies with a good strategy will do well in the long run.

  • Reply to

    Management Issues

    by linusfm May 2, 2013 3:57 AM
    linusfm linusfm May 2, 2013 9:28 AM Flag

    no, just a former long, waiting for the stock to drop to where it belongs so I can sell call again to all those that are short. This stock will drop, maybe not today, but in the long run no doubt.

  • Reply to

    Management Issues

    by linusfm May 2, 2013 3:57 AM
    linusfm linusfm May 2, 2013 9:13 AM Flag

    Also, as far as your "wonderdrug" goes. Independent studies show that the drug is far less effective in real life than the FDA study, in which only 15 people participated. Empirical research with about 800 participants has shown the real results to be about 45% less effective and less effective than their closest competitor. Make your own conclusions..

  • Reply to

    Management Issues

    by linusfm May 2, 2013 3:57 AM
    linusfm linusfm May 2, 2013 9:04 AM Flag

    Lots of talk there and no substance. Most of the shares sold are not automatic sales, you need to take a look. You also did not understand about being ethical and the investment approach related to it. This is not about mantra or whatever you call it. Good luck to you, hope it works out for you junior.

  • Reply to

    Management Issues

    by linusfm May 2, 2013 3:57 AM
    linusfm linusfm May 2, 2013 8:23 AM Flag

    3am where you are..not in the UK..and I do not have a position right now, I used to be long and sell call options on it, because with the high vola you get a nice reward, but after the last results the downside is too high for me to hold a position just to sell calls. Believe what you want, good luck to you, hope it works out. I might get back in as a long and sell calls again if it drops.

  • Reply to

    Management Issues

    by linusfm May 2, 2013 3:57 AM
    linusfm linusfm May 2, 2013 8:15 AM Flag

    Either way, IMHO this company has a bunch of issues that show well through management behavior. I honestly have no position in it as I used to be long and sell call options on it, but not anymore. Good luck to all, hope you make a profit here, I reinvested in other stocks now.

  • Reply to

    Management Issues

    by linusfm May 2, 2013 3:57 AM
    linusfm linusfm May 2, 2013 8:12 AM Flag

    well, 600k USD, and a month before that 1.5 Mil., USD, but the point is that at that time both already knew about Q1 numbers. I agree, they are still holding a good number of shares, but I do not know how many of those they HAVE TO hold since the vesting period might not be over yet. Either way, management selling about 50-60 Mil USD a year in shares is not a positive sign for a company.

  • Reply to

    Management Issues

    by linusfm May 2, 2013 3:57 AM
    linusfm linusfm May 2, 2013 8:01 AM Flag

    10 million USD, not shares. You really need to pay better attention. You are really trying hard to misunderstand everything and you are clearly blind to what is going on there. You also have still not understood the premise about ethics. I did not make a statement on my ethics or your ethics, it is just about what in the long run happens to companies, plain and simple. Since you are not even disputing that this management is clearly unethical, that is fine. Since you only want to believe what is positive for you, I hope you are finding a good exit point, the high short ratio has indeed great short squeeze potential. I suggest you take a look at the last 12 month of insider sales..about 50-60 Mil. USD and take it from there about how management believes in this company and keeps on cashing in on it. Good for them, bad for investors.

  • Reply to

    Management Issues

    by linusfm May 2, 2013 3:57 AM
    linusfm linusfm May 2, 2013 7:38 AM Flag

    your reply shows that you have zero idea about how approvals are done and that you clearly have not read the study. Regardless, this comment was mainly about how cheap it is to produce that drug, and how cheap it used to be sold at, until qcor took over the patent. Which is exactly what the FDA is probing right now.

  • Reply to

    Management Issues

    by linusfm May 2, 2013 3:57 AM
    linusfm linusfm May 2, 2013 6:51 AM Flag

    you misunderstood the premise, I believe that in the long run unethical companies will always go down, which is why it only makes sense to hold those short term on technicals etc, the high short ratio was also what got me long in this stock, but as you can see, even management sold massive shares again a week before the earnings, and the number of shares they are giving to themselves and then turn around and sell them right away does not point to trust in their own company

  • Reply to

    Management Issues

    by linusfm May 2, 2013 3:57 AM
    linusfm linusfm May 2, 2013 6:21 AM Flag

    no, I was long for a while, just on technicals, but I sold, as I only hold position long term in companies with ethical management, and this is not to be seen here.

  • I think it is clear to all that know the business model in a little more detail here, that all stock moves aside, the management keeps issuing stocks to themselves for about 10 million on average a quarter, which they then sell on the market. They are doing this because they know they do not have a sustainable model and are trying to cash in as fast as they can. In addition, this whole business model is based on a questionable drug which rights they bought a while back, that at this point cost 4% of what it costs now. They are selling only 4300 units a quarter, if the FDA investigation that is going on figures out this scam, the company is more or less dead. You basically have a firm here that sells 4300 units of Aspirin a quarter trying not to get caught with their scam. Their only strategy is to find new uses for their only drug, which until today only show questionable results in independent testing. Good luck all, I have no position in this anymore, but I will not participate in and own stock in business that are as unethical as this one.

  • linusfm by linusfm Apr 23, 2013 8:58 AM Flag

    Good results considering the current economic situation. SANM paid off over 200 Million in debt and keeps reducing it more. This will lead to savings that go straight to the bottom line. Also, combined with the share repurchase program, those two initiatives should increase EPS by 15%. They still need to work on the inventory reduction, but the remaining working capital has been handled well. At the current evaluation (below/at book value) and a PE of 8, this is a great buy in my opinion, because it basically has very limited downside and a lot of upside should the economy pick up again.

  • linusfm linusfm Apr 22, 2013 1:25 PM Flag

    well, I believe SANM is in a better position for earnings and cash flows. Also, SANM can leverage their earnings further by paying off their debt, which is what they have been doing, this will increase earnings, cash flow, etc. Also, looking at the other items on the balance sheet, SANM does have by far the better price to book ratio, especially looking at tangible book value. So, if you are only going by cash/debt, Klic is already trading at a premium compared to SANM. Both stocks are buys in my opinion though

  • With the cash infusion they got from the IPO they did some good moves with paying off debt and getting in a great position for expansion. Considering the earnings and low price to book ratio, this stock is trading at a big discount compared to peers in the industry. If they manage to expand in a smart way the company can easily double in value. They are in a great position with a specialized product and service mix in a field that cannot just easily be entered. It is still a small company in terms of market cap, so the market maker can still cause some swings (and the broker Stiefel Nicolaus does, especially at the end of the session), but the volume has been picking up very well lately, which is a good sign for things to come.

  • linusfm by linusfm Apr 4, 2012 2:34 PM Flag

    Now, I know that AWH is in a different sector than ZNGA, but just to show you how irrational the market is hyping internet brand names.

    ZNGA: Expected to make 27 cents this year, issuing new stock for billions. Market cap 9+Billion

    AWH: expected to make $6.88 per share (or about 400-500 Million) (usually they beat as well by a good margin), is buying back stock with all the free money, market cap 2.5B

    just something to think about..look at the numbers yourself..

  • linusfm by linusfm Apr 4, 2012 1:58 PM Flag

    There is no reason GRPN should still be worth $9B+, no reason at all, just look at companies like AWH with stable business models that are expected to make $400-500 Million this year, trading at a market cap of 2.5B...

  • Their is no reason they should survive.
    Blockbuster did not make make, B&N did not make it, what makes people think they will.

    I don't even hold a position in this stock (long or short), but have the people here holding shares actually been to a BBY recently? They have never anything brand new, or hot items in stock. Most people cannot help you with a specific question. Go try it, go in there and ask what the difference between two TVs is that are next to each other..what will happen is that the store clerk will read the little yellow sign...oh yeah, because I cannot read..

    That place has become a dump, the only way for them to survive is to close all stores and turn this into an online business. I tried returning something once I bought on BBY online..could not return it in a store...I was told I need to send it back..great..so the last reason to have those stores is gone for me as well...

  • linusfm by linusfm Mar 19, 2012 8:26 PM Flag

    I wonder why the estimates for Q1 are still so low, there have been no major losses in Q1 so far. Plus the EPS keep going up as the share buyback continues.
    My estimate would actually be in the $2.22 range.

AWH
36.84+0.02(+0.05%)Sep 30 4:03 PMEDT

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