Indeed...That was an optimistic call. Specific companies were identified as opposed to "making progress". Who on earth believed that it would be a "good quarter" just weeks after several insiders bought at $3.22?
We're all reading tea leaves here until something is formally announced. I have no specific insight when or if it will ever happen. My take is that several big money guys put relatively big money behind this. You have a CEO with a Skadden background who won't make much money unless this thing takes off. If Shaulson were to leave it would be a race to the exits--and, all he's done is put more of his own skin in the game.
My gut tells me that they will have a deal with Honeywell announced sooner rather than later. Shaulson and his Wharton degree certainly can calculate his monthly tax burn. My belief is that something will get done but until that happens this will drift downward on no news.
We are in agreement that MBLX has to generate "real revenues" as Shaulson referred to in the last conference call. Lack of analyst coverage does not concern me. The ability to produce a cash generating product is all that really matters.
Will they ever get to that point? And if they are able to produce something, when will that occur? Those are the questions that matter most. The one analyst who does come to the conference calls is borderline worthless.
What is not debatable is that some very smart people threw substantial amount of money believing that this management team would be able to accomplish the aforementioned. Additionally, a number of mid level insiders bought stock as well. And lastly, the tone of the last conference call was, in my mind, optimistic for the first time.
I'll close by stating something else that we will agree upon. I have no certain answers to the questions posed. If I knew that they would be able to come up with a salable product (i.e. Honeywell and Metabolix make a joint announcement regarding beads with L'Oreal as its first customer) they certainly wouldn't be telling me or for that matter anyone else until they file an 8-K.
We are in agreement that they cannot continue along this path forever.
Your ability to attack dwarfs your ability to analyze:
MHG produce COMMODITY PHA. while MBLX's pilot facility will produce SPECIALITY PHA. MBLX abandoned commodity PHA long ago. If you read MBLX's conference call presentation or maybe actually LISTENED to what Mr. Shaulson said you might be able to understand this.
That said....MBLX still has to show some real revenues (also on the conference call) sooner as opposed to later. But get your facts straight. There's plenty to criticize regarding this company's execution but you certainly lose credibility when you botch up basic facts.
Being that Blackstone is a moron--I thought it might be helpful to some to go over what certain filing requirements are:
1. 13F's are required by all folks who manage other people's money. What's required is that these money managers must list all of their holdings as of the end of the quarter--the last one of course being June 30. At that time, the Baker Brothers revealed that they had sold ALL of their TTHI holdings. Being that the disappointing D5 data had occurred just a few days earlier, it is apparent that they were major, major sellers during that week. Of course, it is always possible that they bought some back for 401 (though for tax reasons, I can't believe that it would occur before 31 days), but there is no way to know. My guess is that they are out and out for good.
2. 13G's and 13D's are for those who own more than 5% of the company. In some instances (i.e. Oracle, Fidelity) these are the very same folks who issue 13F's. However, if only private money is involved (i.e. Schuler), this is the only filing required. These 5% positions have to be amended in X number of days when a position changes depending upon whether 10% or 5% is owned. It is virtually certain that Schuler, Oracle, Strobeck (Birchview) and Fidelity have NOT changed their position since the D5 failure.
It's a shame that someone as ignorant as Blackstone will probably make money on TTHI--quite a bit of it in fact.
If I had to make a guess regarding the probability of 401 success, I would go with 70-30. 401 is VERY important to LLY's diabetic franchise and they are spending a lot of money (not TTHI's) to get this over the finish line.
The D5 failure was horrific in that the pay off was much, much more enormous in that TTHI owned the entire drug, not just royalties and the potential market was FAR higher than the $2.7B that Victoza brings in. So throwing out figures like "It should have been over $6 after its failure" is silly.
There is considerable question as to what TTHI is worth in the event (note the qualifier) that 401 is a success. SEC filings indicate that there will be a total of $240MM in milestone payments as well as a "low double digit royalty"--but details beyond that (i.e. when will TTHI get paid milestones and in what increments) are completely unknown.
My best advice to Blackstone is to take his winnings (which may or may not occur) and invest it in 1% money market funds. Your lack of due diligence is astounding even though you are probably correct on TTHI's probable success with 401.
Again....Blackstone and the "pure weight loss guys" are on the wrong track here.
It boils down to this. Lilly owns 401. Lilly NEEDS 401 to succeed. Currently Victoza enjoys a 70% share of the GLP-1 market and Lilly needs something very badly to counter that success in the Diabetes II market.
NUO (who owns Victoza) ALSO has a weight loss drug in Phase III trial. NUO needs this drug to succeed because Victoza goes off patent in 2017.
There is also differentiation regarding daily and weekly dosing. And a host of other issues. But let's be clear here:
1. 401 is NOT conducting trials for weight loss outside the diabetes realm. Comparisons to VVUS and other drugs are stupid,
2. 401 is owned by LLY and TTHI is entitled to milestone payments and royalties which would be worth far more than the $2.20 that the stock is currently selling for.
3. LLY is conducting these present FDA trials. TTHI has handed over the baton and has nothing to do with it from here on out. LLY very badly-desperately needs 401 to succeed.
4. Talk to any seasoned investor and ask him if there's ever such thing as a "slam dunk" for a Phase III trial and he will roll your eyes. 401 is NOT a slam dunk. Given the importance to LLY's portfolio and the amount of money that LLY is spending on this trial it appears that there is cautious optimism and and that's why I am long this stock.
As I mentioned, I am long TTHI and am hopeful that Lilly can get 401 over the finish line. The signs are indeed promising and given Lilly conference call of last week--it appears that 401 has emerged as a very important cog in their pipeline. (Are you aware that Lilly owns the drug and is conducting the trials? TTHI handed the baton to these guys at the end of proof of concept testing and are due only royalties and milestone payments.)
Indeed, the Baker Brothers are very smart guys as are the "other big 4 holders". Presently, it appears that nobody has sold their shares after the failure of D5.
But to say that it doesn't "get any easier than this" is a sign that you are completely unaware of the risks of biotech. I am hopeful--maybe even confident--that 401 will meet their primary and secondary endpoints in their trial--but you are acting like it's a safe a place to put your money as a CD. Far from it. BIG risks in this one.
Blackstone---I won't resort to name calling. But if indeed 401 data is positive, TTHI's shares will soar past $8 without ever turning back. That indeed can happen. So where you get the $8 is beyond me. The $240MM milestone the structure of it has not been released) is worth about $8 all by itself without the low double digit royalty.
And...if 401 data isn't good the stock will go down.
What will 401's data reveal? I think that it looks promising that data will be very strong but I don't know for certain and nobody else does either and that's why the stock is where it's at.
How do I keep telling you that I'm long the stock but there are HUGE risks in this one. As per catalysts that implies "plural". There is but one catalyst and that's the fourth quarter release of 401 data by LLY.
401 does indeed have the potential to be a huge drug but we won't know for sure until that data is released. AND...What you tend to overlook is TTHI's involvement and potential with that drug.
LLY owns the drug. They always did. TTHI paid a bunch of money to do Proof of Concept trial on it. LLY liked what they saw. In return, TTHI gets a "low double digit royalty" and a potential of $240MM in milestone payments--the scheduling of which is not spelled out.
Presently, the ENTIRE drug class is at about $5B. So--no--I'm not new to biotech. However, I do my homework and actually look at SEC filings--something it appears you're having trouble with.
1. NOTHING about today's stock price is relevant as to where it will be by year's end. The TTHI share price will either be significantly higher or lower than it is today. It will not be $2.00. It will not be $2.50. We're talking that either it's trading at about cash (about $1) or very significantly higher.
2. REMEMBER...At this point it's all up to Lilly conducting a trial that reaches the primary and secondary endpoints for 401. TTHI has ZERO to do with the present trial. If this trial outperforms the placebo and Bydueron in both weigh loss and glucose reduction, we will have some very exciting news.
3. The CEO is a guy named Tony Cruz. My guess is that he knows about as much about whether or not this trial is a success that you and I do. The trial data has not yet been unblinded. To the idiot who posted, "Why doesn't he say something?" ---what indeed is he supposed to say? He doesn't know anything and even if he did he would be violating so many laws on the FDA and SEC front that it's not even funny.
4. Saying that the "thing will rebound to $4" is sheer idiocy. There is a great degree of risk--both upside and downside--at $2.00-$2.50. It all comes down to whether or not you think Lilly can bring this one over the finish line.
There is so much misinformation on this board that it's a bit scary...My source is the TTHI web site and I encourage others to do the same. I'm long the stock but "401 means $20B to TTHI" is insanely wrong.
1. Lilly owns 401. TTHI conducted POC (Proof of Concept) trials. Should the drug succeed, TTHI is entitled to a "low double digit royalty" (taken from the web site) plus milestone payments that eventually could yield to a payment of $240MM. However, those milestone payments are not spelled out.
2. 401 falls into a category of drugs called GLP-01. There are several drugs in the market that TOTAL $4B in sales (Thus the $20B to TTHI is Disneyland even if they OWNED the drug which they don't.). 401 would yield some true benefits in that its a weekly drug that would reduce glucose AND be the first one with FDA to be approved for weight loss. The goal is to be "best in class" vs. Nova's drug called Victoza which enjoys sales of $2.5B per year. Thus--even if 401 is a huge success (and replacing Victoza as best in class would be), you're talking about $250MM per year to TTHI, not $20B.
I'm long you idiot.
But do your homework:
1. Lilly owns the drug. They will pay TTHI a "low double digit royalty" plus milestones should it succeed.
2. 401 is a GLP-01 drug. There are several on the market already. Combined they do $4B a year--Victoza alone has $2.5B.,
3. 401 has to outperform Bydureon both in weight loss and glucose reduction. This is doable--and hopefully passable--but it is not a gimmee.
4. Do your homework. You sound like a moron.
First off--I'm long the stock and have a strong interest in 401's success.
But you need to get your facts straight about 401. Unlike D5, they do NOT own the drug. TTHI is entitled to a "low double digit" royalty on 401. Also, the potential market for 401--even if it becomes best of class and unseats Victoza--is about $2.5B. Hence, you're talking about a $200MM payday plus milestones--and that's your best case scenario. D5 they owned outright and had that drug been successful you would be talking about $3-4B. Hence, D5 was the home run of home runs had it succeeded--we all knew that AD's were hard to succeed at trial. And unfortunately, that turned out to be the case.
401 has a greater chance at success. Remember--at this point--TTHI has NOTHING to do with its approval. LLY is now 100% in charge. That in of itself is promising but not determinative.
Guessing where this stock will be as data gets closer is a fool's game and inconsequential for those who will be holding into the data. I can guaranty you with 100% certainty that TTHI's price per share will not be $2.10 by year's end. Whether it's half that still or significantly higher is anyone's guess.
It's apparent that many on the board are unaware of what's going on with this company.
D5 was a huge miss and a huge disappointment.
The focus is now centered upon 401. If their drug hits the primary and secondary endpoints TTHI will go up and if it doesn't it will get creamed. TTHI is no longer part of their own destiny in that Lilly is the one running the trials.
There's zero way you can predict what the data will read. Nothing of consequence will occur until that data arrives.