Basis is always transportation + carry + profit right? Thats the definition.
My point is that it looks to me like the surprise on basis right now is to the positive.
I'm going to try this one more time. was posted here by elahans that basis was currently $1.20 and also mentioning some higher numbers - i replied to that asking where that number comes from but I posted link that seems to cause yahoo to remove the post. nevertheless what I said is that Ive been watching basis via USDA CA weekly grain report in the market news reports on their site.
Latest report shows rail to LA at $1.98/cwt x 1/100lbs x 46lbs/bushel = 91c per bushel
By truck to Stockton is less than that via same Sept 11 report.
please advise if this is incorrect.
The heading should read Impac earned $1.50 per share in Q3 - not Q2
Sentiment: Strong Buy
GAAP earnings at Impac are misleading because they include the mark to market and REO adjustments of trusts that the company holds residuals in but that are non-recourse to the company (the company defines this as its Long-term Portfolio segment). To see the operating earnings of the business the long-term portfolio (which is in run-off) should be ignored.
Looking at the Q3 EPS from operations (from the news release):
Long-term Portfolio $(0.61)
Mortgage Lending $1.04
Real Estate Services $0.46
If you remove the effect of the long-term portfolio, Impac earned $1.50 for the quarter.
If you were to annualize the quarter the company would be on target for $6 of annual operating earnings.
On top of that, the company said during its Q3 conference call that origination volumes for October were $290 million, which is another 19% increase in volume over the average monthly volume for Q2.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yes, risk factor warnings can sound very scary. Just read these 10-K excerpts:
"It is reasonably possible that the Company could experience an increase in foreclosure-related litigation in the future. However, the amount of any losses in connection with such matters cannot be reasonably estimated given the inherent uncertainty around the outcome of such matters."
"the Company has received inquiries from regulators and attorneys general of certain states as well as from the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee, requesting information regarding foreclosure practices, processes and procedures, among other things."
And how about these:
"Litigation and government proceedings may require that we pay significant legal fees, settlement costs, damages, penalties or other charges, or undertake remedial actions pursuant to administrative orders or court-issued injunctions, any of which could adversely affect our financial results."
"Losses incurred in connection with actual or projected loan repurchase and indemnification claims may exceed our financial statement reserves and we may be required to increase such reserves in the future. Increases to our reserves and losses incurred in connection with actual loan repurchases and indemnification payments could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position, results of operation or cash flows."
Clearly these statements sound like a lot of trouble. Look at the language they are using: "material adverse effect", "adversely affect our financial results", inquiries from regulators, the House of Representatives and the U.S Senate Judiciary Committee... must be a pretty big problem.
Except that all of these excerpts are taken from the PHH Corp and Ocwen 10-K.
The truth is that you could step through the risk factors of just about any financial company and cherry pick scary litigation language in the risk factors.
We all know, and I'm sure you know, that mortgage companies are constantly subject to legal proceedings. As Impac stated on the CC, "in the course of business there is always a lawsuit pending"
Yet Impac addressed a question specifically about its remaining legal issues during the third quarter conference call with the response that "we don't have any large lawsuits currently" and that they are comfortable with the position they have taken on those.
The one remaining legal issue, which is the repurchase demands from Fannie Mae, showed a decrease in repurchase requests from $2.3 million to $1.8 million quarter over quarter and they are following the falling trend that you see at other originators like PHH.
Sentiment: Strong Buy