a 600 p/e, when the momo leave, the momo leaves.
The greater fool theory only lasts until the last fool, which was at 196. The stock is worth 50.00 a share, maybe 60.00
I'm in on this as much as I will be at 9.45, annoying as I timed it wrong. A flatline day is good to buy after a fierce sell off to really oversold levels. These things take time, I held SAM for 13 years, never even tried the stuff.
No, I think the action is very good, it stopped selling off and volume contracted, this is what I should have waited for. Oh well, I made 100% in two months on this and jumped off at 15, that was good tape reading, as for the early purchase, that was bad tape reading. However I want to invest in the firm and not trade it.
Pretty sure that you nailed on the head there, I just wish that I read the tape better on this one and traded out at the first bump which which was a 2% profit. The trend was down, I had no business thinking investment on a downward sliding stock. oh well, and now I wait for rationality.
This thing fell apart like a small biotech that had its one of two trial drugs disapproved by the FDA. Yet it is diversified and growing at 30% a year.
I've now lost (on paper) 20% of all that I made on the ride up from 8 to 15 where I sold, isn't the market fun sometimes?
That is because my average is 9.45 on twice as many shares.
I was clearly on the wrong side of the tape on this one, however in the past all the SNFCA recoveries have been quick, even to the hour, not this time, just one slide after another. Oddly making the stock more and more valuable each day.
What surprises me is that they did it without any rumors at all, no CITRON or Mudddy Waters research report or anything, just pure selling below the bid probably, and it worked so well, and when the avalanch started it garnered a life of its own.
Damn, and this is now 10% of my stock portfolio too.
I'm patient though, I'll wait the manipulators out. I held SAM for 13 years.
So far so good, glad that I didn't have to watch this one too much, just let it ride. Wish they could all be like that.
I don't know where the triple from two yars ago came in, perhaps I was thinking of another stock?
I sold at 15 form 8 because it stalled, also it had risen too fat too fast, 3 hours later a huge 160,000 share sale went through all at once. That was institutional.
The stock recovered quickly and then continued to fall, that recovery was the point at which to go short (the first attempt at a rally after a sever break) however I didn't do so. Take a look at any variety of charts for that, although MCP in May 2011 is a great example.
This seems like far more of a coordinated move to bring the price down rather than retail profit taking, the key variable being there have not been any meaningful spikes since the selling began. The derivation of that is that whomever is controlling the attack meets every buy with a sale (often under the bid) and therby prevents the rise.
The key is to hit the stop loss orders which are (thanks to the SEC) available for the MM's to see. Then the retail crowd starts to think that something is really wrong with the stock because "the market is telling them something" and they sell sell, then further stop losses are taken out as the avalanch has now gathered a life of its own.
Often what is found is that MM's are part of the selling group, how they bribed the SEC to let them see open stop loss orders is simply a matter of corruption.
If you want to see Jim Cramer explain this when he didn't think he was being taped go to youtube and look up "Jim Cramer Explains How The Stock Market Is Manipulated" His use of the words "scaring the moron longs into thinking there is something wrong with the company" should shed light onto the aformentioned short tactics.
I've seen it many many times, although rarely to this extent, it is almost always done in micrcap stocks, see QCOR and GMCR - both oddly to 17.
Often what shorts will do is start rumors or blog a fraud post or send out a guy like Bill Ackman (HLF). The DOJ should bring charges against Ackman, a blind Monkey could see it was a scam. however I'm not holding my breath for them to act..
As small investors we take advantage of these fire sale prices by buying in after the panic has subsided and wait for the stock to catch up to the fundamentals, and the shorts preceed to cover. At least that's what I've done in the past, and it seems to work.
The net present value of the stock implies a revenue growth rate of 7% a year, where for the past three quarters it has been growing revenue at 39%, you should be careful about looking for easy answers. The stock should be trading at 18 and moving higher.
I sold at 15 from 8 because it stalled; also it had risen too fat too fast. Three hours later a huge 160,000 share sale went through all at once. That was institutional.
The stock recovered quickly and then continued to fall, that recovery was the point at which to go short (the first attempt at a rally after a sever break) however I didn't do so. Take a look at any variety of charts for that, although MCP in May 2011 is a great example.
This seems like far more of a coordinated move to bring the price down rather than retail profit taking, the key variable being there have not been any meaningful spikes since the selling began. The derivation of that is that whoever is controlling the attack meets every buy with a sale (often under the bid) and thereby prevents the rise.
The key is to hit the stop loss orders which are (thanks to the SEC) available for the MM's to see. Then the retail crowd starts to think that something is really wrong with the stock because "the market is telling them something" and they sell, then further stop losses are taken out as the avalanche has now gathered a life of its own.
Often what is found is that MM's are part of the selling group, how they bribed the SEC to let them see open stop loss orders is simply a matter of corruption.
If you want to see Jim Cramer explain this when he didn't think he was being taped go to Youtube and look up "Jim Cramer Explains How The Stock Market Is Manipulated" His use of the words "scaring the moron longs into thinking there is something wrong with the company" should shed light onto the aforementioned short tactics.
I've seen it many, many times, although rarely to this extent, it is almost always done in microcap stocks, see QCOR and GMCR - both oddly to 17.
Often what shorts will do is start rumors or blog a fraud post or send out a guy like Bill Ackman (HLF). The DOJ should bring charges against Ackman; a blind Monkey could see it was a scam. However I'm not holding my breath for them to act.
As small investors we take advantage of these fire sale prices by buying in after the panic has subsided and waiting for the stock to catch up to the fundamentals and the shorts proceed to cover. At least that's what I've done in the past, and it seems to work, provided of course that the firm is diversified, solid, growing, and inexpensive.
eventually true value is realized, this is a classic sucker stock, the value is 50.00
looks stable, falls, rinse, repeat. people are giving up in a wholesale way on this company, and forgeting the lessons of history in the process. I'm sympathetic, every day in the past ten days was a a day when a person could have sold and made a more effective decision to buy the next day.
You mean manipulation to 196? No, that was a retail bubble, as for calling the SEC you might as well shine a light and wait for Batman.
I'm symathetic towards anyone that shorted based upon fundamental value, bubbles have a life of their own.
look at all the guys that shorted the internet bubble in 1999, and stuck with their losing positions. I said 191 was a safe short entry.
If they get bought at 16 it will, this will probably take months to return to 15 because so much technical damage has been done to the stock. The odd thing is that people will want the stock only after others want the stock, regardless of the fundamental value of the firm, as you've seen the same thing happens in reverse.
Then again after they report their earnings the stock could jump back to 15 quickly, frantic short covering and all that. It's a real toss up, so I don't try to predict the future, unless of course I predict that in the future it will be equally as hard to predict the future as it is today.
My motto of buying panic in a good firm and being very patient has worked for years, the stock price between when I buy and sell is in actuality nothing more than an amusing passtime that reflects perception and not reality.
The president of the firm own 4 million shares, and he wasn't madly selling at 15 was he? If I remember your in school, go order get a copy of this book for $10.00, Pushing to the Front. It is basically many (small) lessons in the timeless the art of living well. I was written in 1894 or so, it stuck around this long so you know it's good. It will put you well ahead of your peers.
Now go study.
The stock should fall to 50, however when to cover is a day to day choice, as long as the stock acts well (goes down or remains stable) there is no need to cover, however I would assume that it would be good to be uninvolved prir to earnings, as that when the real gamble exists.
I'm also recently long SNFCA, that stock is odd, its growing far faster than NFLX yet lost 1/2 it's value in ten days on no news, they are in cemetaries, insurance, and morgatges, you know, the real wiz bang stuff.
I'm an old school fundamental guy who respects the tape as well.
It looks like they could only drive it down so far before the snap back, p/e of 8 and growing at 39%, c'mon., then again NFLX has a p/e of 600 and is growing at 12%
Probably, I try not to confuse the price of the stock with the value of the company, in a year SNFCA should be much much higher.