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iShares Silver Trust Message Board

livestrong1003 37 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 13, 2015 12:15 PM Member since: Apr 18, 2011
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  • livestrong1003 by livestrong1003 Feb 13, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    Silver has bounced off decisively from the 50 dma. It has not been below it this year.
    At $18.25 it will cross the 200 dma. This will be significant.
    Monthly MACD has issued a buy signal.
    We have 3 monthly gains for silver. If April is a gain, this will be a first since 2010.
    Daily RSI, stokes, and MACD are strong.
    Inverted head and shoulders held.
    The COT report is not a measure to forecast lower prices as the experts have claimed.
    Technical factors are a measure to forecast significantly higher prices to come.
    Hedge funds are still buying silver.
    Silver goes higher.

  • Reply to

    Last time I checked...

    by idealcarpentry Feb 8, 2015 9:33 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Feb 8, 2015 11:14 PM Flag

    I don't know.
    I would watch for a loss in confidence. We now have a confidence in debt and stimulus in a quasi economy. At some point, the confidence will change. All things are cyclical. The rubber band has a lot of elasticity. It is difficult to see what lies beyond that.
    2-5 years, but that is a guess.

  • Reply to

    Last time I checked...

    by idealcarpentry Feb 8, 2015 9:33 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Feb 8, 2015 9:52 PM Flag

    I wouldn't call printing money toilet paper. It's money. Everyone wants the dollar. For now. We are king.
    What is ironic is that the government spends $3.6 trillion this year and about $4.0 trillion in 2016.
    That means that 25-30% of spending is debt. Back in 2009, it was about 50%. No entity can sustain itself that way.
    We are in a Goldilocks era in an unparalleled experiment of stimulus. Is it a bubble? Is $18 trillion a bubble? Will we repay, default, lose confidence? That is the crux of the matter. Is it better to delay the inevitable, as we have? The key is watch is sentiment and world perception. It mightl be a snowball heading toward an avalanche.
    Silver goes higher.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Feb 8, 2015 6:23 PM Flag

    TF and TB do not know what they are talking about. Banks that short have been notoriously wrong as have TF and TB. The COT report does not confirm that lower prices are coming because the COT report is not a prognosticating measure.
    TF and TB are perma bulls and have been wrong. Now they are wrong by capitulating at the lows.
    Is that the bull indicator you are searching for MR ALL CAPS.
    Silver clearly goes higher.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Feb 8, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    This information is not accurate. The total net positions is 0. There is 1 long for every short position futures, or you have delivery. Commercials hold 275 million ounces short positions and just add 25 million ounces long in the last report.

    Back in 2011 commercials held and even deeper short position and silver rallied $15 to $50. Ted is not a good source for prognostication.

    THE ALL CAPS LOCKS DOES NOT MAKE BAD ADVICE MORE CREDIBLE.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Feb 7, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    If we squint our eyes and try to filter out a few facts, America is humming along.
    Corporate profits are strong. Equities are strong.
    Banks are swimming in profits.
    But if we look at what is chasing us, it is not so rosy.
    The real unemployment rate is around 23 million. That has grown since 2009.
    The debt is $18.1 trillion and is unsolvable.
    An increase in interest rates will have a domino effect of destruction.
    All things are cyclical.
    We are living on borrowed and created money.

    So, to say that the markets will explode. You may be right on that, just not in the direction you think.
    There will come a time when the average investor and the big investor will not trust that stimulus
    and holding debt of any form is trustworthy.

  • livestrong1003 by livestrong1003 Feb 7, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    Revenue is $9700 per citizen. A big gap.
    The debt silently just went up $100 billion. Is that real money that you will pay or is there no problem?
    We have come to ignore debt levels. What is the consequence of denial?
    Federal expenditures is currently at $3.6 trillion.
    The proposed budget for 2016 is $4.0 trillion. An 11% increase.
    More stimulants please.
    The only effective countermeasure to what lies ahead is planning a strategy now.

  • Reply to

    Japan having to make LAW

    by idealcarpentry Feb 6, 2015 10:55 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Feb 7, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    An interesting consequence to increasing interest rates is shown in the video:
    "Japan's debt problem visualized".
    A 1% rise in rates means a 23% loss in revenue spending for Japan.
    When interest rates rise, silver goes up, as global debt problems arise.

  • Reply to

    Japan having to make LAW

    by idealcarpentry Feb 6, 2015 10:55 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Feb 7, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    Japan is in a very difficult situation with nearly $11 trillion of debt which is 250% of GDP. This is scarey. They cannot fix their debt. They only way they are not in default is if they keep interest rates near 0% and domestic and foreign investors buy the debt. BUT when the US an other countries start to raise interest rates, Japan will be forced to raise theirs in order to compete. Debt holders want interest.

    It is a matter of time before inflation starts to emerge and global rates increase. It will occur as all things are cyclical. The Goldilocks period of low inflation and low interest rates will not last forever. Silver will be one of the few investments that will benefit to the scenario that will unfold in the next 5 years. All countries are taking stimulants and narcotics and feel good doing so. This is temporary. The buzz will wear off soon enough. The greater the high, the greater the fall. Plan now. It is not going to be pretty. I am not a gloom and doomer, but there is a consequence to what is being done.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 31, 2015 8:44 AM Flag

    Here is a topic for readers: "JP Morgan Holds Highest Amount Of Physical Silver In History"
    Banks hold physical silver and can move the price through shorting. Banks understand the fundamentals of silver better than any other institution and have the financial power to move the price easily. There is roughly a 1 billion ounce supply of silver while banks short it.
    Indiivdual investors are for the most part long silver.
    The bright spot in all of this is that the lows are in and market dynamics have changed. Hedge funds continue to buy in long positions and just set another record (prior to the recent drop). Hedge funds would have sold this week.
    The important thing to do is to try to understand what is going on and develop a strategy accordingly. JP Morgan made $5 billion in the last quarter. They are the movers, not the followers.

  • Each year Congress projects their forecast for future deficits and total debt.

    They forecast that the deficit will drop this year and next to a low of $467 billion, then rise.
    They project after 2016 that the deficit will rise continuously to surpass $1 trillion annually in the 2020's, and will not drop below $1 trillion again.
    Daunting, unless you plan now.

    By 2025 their most optimistic forecast is that the debt will stand at $27.3 trillion.

    Based on their own forecast, these are the best of times,
    to own silver.

  • Reply to

    Can silver go higher?

    by livestrong1003 Jan 24, 2015 11:19 AM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 25, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Yes, to question 1.
    Average volume is dependent on which exchange you track, but is normally over 100 times held positions. ie. Volume reflects day-trading algorithm activity primarily.
    Please keep in mind that many or most posters on this board are disingenuous. Continue with your own research and always have a contingency of being wrong. Develop a long term strategy if you have anything to do with silver.

  • Reply to

    Silver $1.67 over spot on e bay

    by livestrong1003 Jan 24, 2015 9:16 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 24, 2015 10:41 PM Flag

    Obviously good. Bought more today.
    When have you seen markup so low?
    I see higher prices in the future. So, I consider this to be the lowest price you can get.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 24, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    Maybe. I try not to read bad into things and try to take a broad picture perspective.
    The unemployment rate dropped to 5.6%. I am not arguing if that is good or bad.
    I am saying that stimulus is not in the near future. That seems far off as the US economy is by far the strongest as Europe and China ease going forward.

  • Reply to

    Can silver go higher?

    by livestrong1003 Jan 24, 2015 11:19 AM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 24, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    Let's be clear. Silver does not track any economic/political factor except gold, and gold does not correlate to anything.
    Silver is controlled by large US banks. London and China are minor players. Hedge funds can move silver higher if they have the resolve. As an individual investor, it is incumbent upon each person to do their own research and to detach themselves from so much noise.
    I use technical analysis and market sentiment to try to figure out what direction markets will go. Technical analysis says that silver should go higher, since all of the downward momentum has dissappeared.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 24, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    I am not so sure. The US economy is growing at 5%, which is a peak rate over the last 20 years. It iis the strongest economy by far. The deficit has dropped to an 'acceptable' range. So, the need for stimulus is unnecessary. The demand for US bonds and bills is strong. The Fed has achieved what it wished to have achieved.
    In spite of the 'rosy' picture, silver will go higher on its own merits.
    Another recession that will require stimulus may be years away.
    In this strange environment, stocks can go up, the dollar go up, yields can stay down, inflation can remain low, and silver can go up.

  • Reply to

    Can silver go higher?

    by livestrong1003 Jan 24, 2015 11:19 AM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 24, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    The price has been controlled down for years.
    I am suggesting that we are at a crossroads as buyers have peaked.
    Back in 2011, this kind of activity led to higher prices.
    For the last 3 years, it has led to lower.
    Technically speaking, sideways to higher. I would think.

  • livestrong1003 by livestrong1003 Jan 24, 2015 11:19 AM Flag

    The no. 1 factor for silver going higher is hedge fund buying of paper silver contracts as reported by the COT report.
    Large speculator buying now stands at 50,000 long contracts, which has been historically the peak amount of positions held by longs. Speculators have gone from 10,000 to 50,000 positions in only 2 months. That was enough buying for a $20 move, but silver has moved $3.
    Banks are now short approximately 60,000 contracts and are near historic peaks.
    So, what happens now?
    Historically, 1 of 2 scenarios plays out. Speculators unload and silver drops fast, or banks unload and silver travels sideways and then higher.
    I would be surprised if silver heads higher into next week. I would think a pause, then higher according to technicals.
    Speculators have peaked (for now).

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 21, 2015 11:22 PM Flag

    Not sure what your question is. According to netdania, they calculate volume as the cumulative total of the top 5 metal exchanges. I would surmise that 99% of that volume is daytraders, hedge funds, and banks competing against one another. Us tadpoles are along for the ride.
    The ride will go higher.
    Another historic day.

  • Extremely heavy volume today as silver ended higher.
    120.4 billion futures ounces traded.
    Bull market will remain intact.

SLV
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