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iShares Silver Trust Message Board

livestrong1003 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2016 6:57 PM Member since: Jul 7, 2011
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  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 30, 2016 6:57 PM Flag

    Google- "comex registered silver" The 2nd item is an XLS spreadsheet.
    Cell G53 shows the daily drawdown.
    Hope that helps. :-)

  • From 36.3 to 28.5 million ounces. Biggest 1 day drop ever, i believe.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 6, 2016 11:37 PM Flag

    Not that you have a brain cell. This is the inventory that delivery is made from indicating strong withdrawals. Paper shorting will only make it worse for those attempting to short a diminishing inventory, not that you would understand.

  • A good sign of strong demand. Buyers are taking delivery in 2016.

  • The Comex Registered Silver inventories experienced a large one day decline yesterday. Nearly 10% of total Comex Registered Silver inventories were removed from the exchange on the last day of the year and reported on Jan 4th.

    According to the CME Group’s Metal Depository Statistics, 3.5 million ounces (Moz) of Registered Silver Inventories were withdrawn. At the end of 2015 (Dec 31st), there were 40.3 Moz held in Registered Silver inventories at the Comex. After this large one day transfer, only 36.7 Moz remains.

  • Reply to

    18,846 Trillion Dollars...

    by idealcarpentry Jan 5, 2016 10:02 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 5, 2016 11:22 PM Flag

    QE and debt are the grand experiment. Bernanke called it a grand experiment into uncharted territory. That is an euphemism for 'we are in a SL of trouble if nothing is done now. Nothing was done. Even Congress has conceded on doing anything.
    The period of bliss will not last much longer.
    Keep you chin up.
    Everything will have its time. We have seen it all before.

  • Reply to

    18,846 Trillion Dollars...

    by idealcarpentry Jan 5, 2016 10:02 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Jan 5, 2016 10:22 PM Flag

    We all have a mirror in front of it. "nothing to see here folks', mentality.
    When the next recession hits, adding debt to debt will not seem like such a great idea as it used to be.
    Somewhere in the next 1 to 3 years, it will become real and the mirror will go away.
    tick tock

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Dec 27, 2015 6:49 PM Flag

    The point is to introduce objectivity into the discussion.
    I think this one article has a firm handle on what is driving the price of silver now and going forward.
    There is a 3% or 34 million ounce shortfall.
    It will take a bigger catalyst than that to make the price go higher.
    It is an opportunity to accumulate with minimal downside risk.
    When the debt hits $20T or we face a recession, silver may be seen as a safe haven.
    How long will that take?

  • Search this topic and read the article for an "objective" outlook for 2015 and 2016.

    This is a good starting point on the fundamentals and outlook for silver.

  • Reply to

    PIP's Valuation PPS

    by livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 8:58 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 9:32 PM Flag

    Not likely.
    Buyers will want in and who would ever sell on the 1st day of an announcement like this?
    There should be continual buying pressure as everyone knows the outcome.
    PIP wins.

  • Reply to

    18 Trillion 797 Billion debt...

    by idealcarpentry Dec 23, 2015 9:15 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 9:29 PM Flag

    That's a stretch, unless more unfunded (mis)appropriations occur.
    I think the thing to watch is how each candidate is going increase the debt load, and when the next recession strikes how debt is going to accelerate again.
    The price we are paying for this recovery will be sobering to all.
    hoooo hah for the recovery.
    Buying more silver.

  • Reply to

    PIP's Valuation PPS

    by livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 8:58 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 9:17 PM Flag

    Pulled this out of archive files:
    I look at the value of PIP as the cash they will receive plus a couple of free options. First, PIP should receive close to $200m in cash, that's ~$3.60/shr. ($3.46 if looking on a fully diluted basis, and including the cash from option exercise). Plus, $0.50 for SparVax, or the cash value of the NIH award. With the positive data on SparVax so far, odds are PIP will receive the full contract. Plus, a residual interest in the theoretical value of SIGA's FDA approval milestone. Let's say that's valued at $100m, so PIP's share would be 32/100, or $32m, $0.60. The total value of PIP is around $4.70. (This calculation excludes the tax liability PIP may have, and the post-judgment interest, which they would be entitled to, which should roughly cancel each other out.) Even if one wanted to argue it will take 3 years for PIP to realize this value, which I don't think it will, and even if one wanted to discount the odds greatly, let's say 15%, which is way too high given the history of the case, that yields a value today of ~$3.0/shr.
    We should trade close to $3 tomorrow.

  • livestrong1003 by livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 8:58 PM Flag

    It would be nice to have a good discussion of the opening price and FMV for Pharmathene.
    Current valuation anyone?

  • The Delaware Supreme Court affirms the earlier judgement by the Court of Chancery that awarded PharmAthene (NYSEMKT:PIP) $195M from SIGA Technologies (NASDAQ:SIGA)(OTCPK:SIGAQ) related to their litigation over the smallpox antiviral Arestvyr that began in 2006.

    SIGA chief Dr. Eric Rose says, "We are surprised and very disappointed by this ruling. Nevertheless, in anticipation of [the ruling], on December 15, 2015 SIGA filed a plan of reorganization in its pending case under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The plan, among other things, affords SIGA with certain options to satisfy PharmAthene's claim. The plan is supported by the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors appointed in SIGA's Chapter 11 case, of which PharmAthene is one of two members. We remain absolutely committed to continuing to produce and deliver our smallpox antiviral drug, Tecovirimat, to the U.S. Government's Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, pursuing FDA approval and operating our business."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    Maybe higher.

  • Reply to

    Debt vs GDP

    by livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 2:25 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    If I read this correctly, you are suggesting inflating our way out of this.
    I think this is a complex problem made worse at each election.
    We are hooked on unfunded liabilities and each candidate is declaring that they will add to it.
    As the US goes, so goes the world.
    Owning silver makes sense.

  • Reply to

    Debt vs GDP

    by livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 2:25 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    If you research, the debt was virtually non-existent until Reagan became President.
    He tripled the debt and now we are on a joy ride of expansion.
    The point of the topic was there is no growth. There is only debt expansion.
    When a candidate says they will "grow the economy", that can mean only 1 thing.
    Bigger debt.
    It may be that in 5 years, everything changes. In 10, it may be unrecognizable from this perspective.

  • livestrong1003 by livestrong1003 Dec 23, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    In 1995, the debt was $4.7 trillion and the GDP was $10.1 trillion.
    In 2015 the debt is $18.8 trillion and the GDP is $16.4 trillion.

    During the past 20 years:
    GDP grew 63% or 2.5% compounded.
    Debt grew 301% or 7% compounded.

    Deficit spending is considered part of the GDP, meaning $5 of government deficit spending resulted in a net of $1 of growth. While this may not be a direct correlation, that was the result.

    Any downturn in the economy will skew these numbers even further, as we are in an economic 'boon' period. The debt curve is on an exponential curve, while the GDP is linear or negative excluding deficit spending. I think we can conclude all US and global growth is the result of deficit spending, ie. more debt.

    You can figure out where this leads too.
    However you characterize the US or global economy, exponential debt is problematic and will become unsolvable.
    This is uncharted territory resulting in exponential monetary expansion.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 24, 2015 7:21 PM Flag

    It is amazing. I did not see your post. The debt is up nearly $2 trillion for the past 2 years, yet the deficit is claimed to be some low number. That is fuzzy to the point of funny. I guess they can make the number anything they want now.
    The saying use to be 'there is an ap for that', now they will say "there is a derivative for that'.
    Anymore surprises looming?
    Here is how I see the math. If the debt gets any bigger, the deficit will soon be 0.

  • The national debt has surged more than half a trillion dollars in the last three weeks, as the suspension of the debt ceiling in late October has allowed the government to borrow as much as it wants.

    Before the debt ceiling was suspended, the national debt stood at $18.15 trillion. But over the last 22 days, it soared $578 billion.

    As of Friday, total national debt stood at $18.72 trillion.

    The math is getting fuzzier by the day.

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