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iShares Silver Trust Message Board

livestrong1003 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 26, 2014 12:25 PM Member since: Apr 18, 2011
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  • Reply to

    economy is doing great if your a skydiver

    by skarielarry Nov 26, 2014 11:43 AM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 26, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    The economy shows slow improvement over time. That is the new reality for the US.
    We will never go back to the 'golden era' of growth in a global economy.
    Every person must properly access opportunities and determine how to thrive, especially since the dynamics continually change.
    I don't spend much time on what is wrong. I spend time on figuring what is right and what will be opportunities.
    I've done well in RE and stocks. Now, metals will have their time again.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 26, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    SLV is an algorithm, silver futures controls the price.
    Silver moves on sentiment and it has moved from record bear territory.
    I would expect hedge fund buying to show up in the weeks to come.
    The bear market is over.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 26, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    This is good news. If prices went up with more shorting then it had to be met with stronger longs. SLV shorting is a hedge and cannot affect the price as in paper futures.
    Since we are coming off of all time record bearish sentiment we are coming out of the low. The low has been set and silver will definitely move higher.
    I was cautious based on last weeks COT. Future COT reports should show outright buying by hedge funds.
    We are out of the woods.
    Silver goes higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Maybe U.S. debt really doesn't matter anymore

    by bhodabs50 Nov 23, 2014 5:39 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 23, 2014 6:40 PM Flag

    Considering that the US debt is public debt owned by you and by me, we are all in denial. If $10 trillion doesn't matter, what difference does $18 trillion make? Your portion is about $200,000, so is mine. It doesn't matter right now if you don't think about it. It will mater to our children though because it doesn't matter to us right now.
    It doesn't matter.

    I am long physical silver.

  • Reply to

    Friday was extremely bullish

    by dlamich Nov 22, 2014 12:21 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 22, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    I think caution is needed when it comes to supply and demand.
    Production may be down by design not by loss.
    Miners are withholding and curtailing production numbers as prices drop and they are
    shorting silver at the same time.
    The mint curtailing production may be the same thing. Ration sales due to the price drop.
    Inventory may be large when considering Comex, LME, and ETF inventory.
    So, it may be a mixed picture that most people misinterpret.
    Let's say that I am correct. This would explain the prolonged drop.

    I try to simplify what causes the price of silver to rise to 1 factor:
    Hedge fund buying.
    All prior rallies in the last 10 years were caused by it.
    This means interpreting the fundamentals is not necessary.

    Silver cannot move up $5 without paper buying, meaning hedge funds.
    All other rallies were preceded by hedge fund buying against commercial shorting.
    This is not occurring at this time. The next few weeks are important.

  • Reply to

    Friday was extremely bullish

    by dlamich Nov 22, 2014 12:21 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 22, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    Hold your horses. Friday was mildly bullish and the COT report is bearish since the rally so far has been short covering and no buying.
    At best, there are contradictory signals and future COT reports will tell if there is going to be any real long positions established.
    So far, I would not even be cautiously optimistic. Why? Future slow down in growth particularly in China, deflation, and rising interest rates may become detrimental.
    So, the COT will reveal what will happen.

  • Reply to

    Will the rally be short lived?

    by livestrong1003 Nov 22, 2014 11:02 AM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 22, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    SLV is essentially an algorithm.
    As long as enough people have enough confidence in what is happening with the economy, we live with status quo,
    What I find ironic is the US Debt is called public debt, meaning it belongs to me and you. I own the debt that the government spends. It's not called government debt. We are trusting our future to a $20-25 trillion dollar monster, which cannot be paid.

    The debt is no longer a problem in the public's eye. The question is when will it become real? Metals are 1 of a few things that is real in a paper menagerie world.

    So, to make things real. The US Debt should be called "How much we spend today and take away from your children's future". ie. paper menagerie

  • Reply to

    Will the rally be short lived?

    by livestrong1003 Nov 22, 2014 11:02 AM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 22, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    So, how do you interpret SLV shorting numbers?
    I think new long paper positions need to be established for the rally to sustain itself.
    We should be able to see that in 1-2 weeks.

  • livestrong1003 by livestrong1003 Nov 22, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    According to the COT report, hedge funds have been closing short positions and are not adding long positions. They have been reducing long positions. Historically, hedge funds need to take on long positions against commercial shorting. Banks have been adding to short positions in recent weeks.

    The record setting volume seems to be day trading algorithms.

    In order for the rally to continue, hedge funds will need to add long positions very soon.

  • Weekly records have been set 3 weeks in a row for both.
    This may be the new norm.
    Much higher liquidity.
    Will we see another pop before the end of the day?

  • More than double the next highest record.
    Daily volume each day this week has been higher than corresponding volume of last week's record volume.
    Divergences abound. Very bullish for silver.
    More fireworks are in store for silver.
    source: netdania

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 20, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    I do both.
    Paper is a zero sum game of short term strategy.
    Physical is an investment which you have illustrated with your posts. I have physical for a long term investment.
    The US debt and global debt will not continue forever without a consequence that the public will not accept.
    if you are unwilling to accept a $10 trillion debt yesterday, you will not accept a $20 trillion(roughly) debt today, you and you will absolutely refuse a $30 trillion debt tomorrow.
    Time is on the side for those who plan now.
    Yes, buy physical, while it is at a discount.
    It will not remain at a discount forever.
    A strategy for investment must be formulated by all for our impending future.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 20, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    I don't know and can only speculate.
    It can either be a renewed interest in hedge fund investing, which the COT would reveal. This led the 2011 rally.
    It can be the new norm of higher day trading volume.
    It can be a fundamental shift toward metals as the bull market resumes.
    I don't think anyone can say with certainty if it one or more of those, or even another factor is the direct cause for the record volume.
    It is all interesting, as today is yet another day of huge volume.
    Physical demand would naturally follow a surge in price for any reason postulated. Investors will chase what is hot.

  • livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 19, 2014 8:34 PM Flag

    The world is dominated by paper. The point of investing is valid too.
    99%+ of silver trading is paper futures.
    There is a fundamental shift toward metals now with huge volume.
    The little guy has to figure out what it means and how to stay ahead of the curve.
    I was expecting a little more volatility and it occurred.

    This is just the beginning of trading volume records of paper. Just as in oil. It's all paper.
    Technicals will lead a fundamental shift.
    There is more to interpret what is going on.

  • Weekly volume is on course for a 3rd record in a row.
    Monthly volume is nearly double of prior record

  • Fireworks are in order as big money continues to move into silver.

  • livestrong1003 by livestrong1003 Nov 17, 2014 9:46 PM Flag

    Huge volume again today. Higher than last Monday. Price action is reminiscent of last week as well. This does not necessarily mean a repeat performance, but the huge volume is interesting and means large money is competing for positioning.
    I think someone might get a call that prices are going higher this week. :)

  • Reply to

    How do you like this prediction???

    by commonsenseonly1 Nov 15, 2014 7:14 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 15, 2014 8:32 PM Flag

    This checks out to be valid. Marshall Swing has predicted a low of $15 consistently over dozens of articles. He said that the bank cartel will force the price down in spite of fundamentals. He also advised the continual purchase of silver along the way stating that banks and other investors will once again recognize that metals will be one of only a few investments to hold their value over time. He does not paint a good picture as to the outcome of $70 trillion of global printing. He uses the COT as his indicator, which I concur. It is worthwhile to read his articles.

  • Reply to

    Look at the 2 year chart dumb dumbs

    by stickwiggler13 Nov 15, 2014 4:32 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 15, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    Learning seems to be the most challenging thing of all.
    It is foolish to be so wrong, then continue to stand your ground.
    I guess that is the need to try insults instead. What else has he got?

  • Reply to

    Look at the 2 year chart dumb dumbs

    by stickwiggler13 Nov 15, 2014 4:32 PM
    livestrong1003 livestrong1003 Nov 15, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    Humans are fallible when making analysis and predictions, especially when they guarantee it.
    The movement of 700 billion ounces of silver into a rally is nothing to discount so easily.
    The best advise for shorts is be cautious because there is a lot of money in play now.
    The 3 year chart gives no clue for what will happen next week. Divergences abound.
    The less you say, the wiser you will become. :)

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