This is an interesting development.
EXK was 10x normal volume.
Most of the silver miners were 2-10x normal volume on Friday on moves up.
Very interesting, why the positioning now?
The dynamics of both stocks and silver have changed. Low oil prices is affecting many countries negatively. The stock chart looks 'ominous' to me with an expanding triangle on the weekly chart. Is this just a correction? Tough to say just yet.
However, on the silver side, the silver pond is safe for a plunge. There are many bullish divergences, a historic key reversal, and hedge funds are actually buying. I guess everyone will come to know that we have seen the lows after the lows are in. We have seen the lows.
Purchases over time is best for silver.
A victory for silver.
The historic key reversal low has been confirmed by today's strong move.
It is time to accumulate silver in earnest as we are in a LT rally.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
According to the IMF, here is the ranking of cash plus gold reserves:
China: $3.9 trillion
Saudi Arabia: $.74
US: $.45 was $.57 in 2012
I would not have expected that China holds 8X the money and gold reserve of the US. The US has dropped for 4 years.
40 million ounces.
They are projected to import 6400 MT for the year or 200 million ounces of silver.
December 1, 2014 for spot silver.
Do not underestimate the historic significance of this day.
Today is the turning point.
More green to follow.
On the 1st day of the trading month precious metals launch their biggest daily up reversal in history.
Today's move has nearly taken out the entire move for the entire month of November.
This is unprecedented.
I believe we have seen the capitulation and bullish divergences will continue to emerge.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The lessons everyone should learn is that the dynamics have changed in a global economy.
The middle class is shrinking because being average is not good enough for success.
Every person needs to figure how they are going to survive and thrive for what is to come.
Complaining is common. Doing something to get ahead is rare.
Are you part of the problem or part of the solution?
I've done my part, real estate, stocks, and soon metals.
If you realize what is to come, metals are golden.
Complainers: complain all you like, unless you have a brain that can work.
The economy shows slow improvement over time. That is the new reality for the US.
We will never go back to the 'golden era' of growth in a global economy.
Every person must properly access opportunities and determine how to thrive, especially since the dynamics continually change.
I don't spend much time on what is wrong. I spend time on figuring what is right and what will be opportunities.
I've done well in RE and stocks. Now, metals will have their time again.
SLV is an algorithm, silver futures controls the price.
Silver moves on sentiment and it has moved from record bear territory.
I would expect hedge fund buying to show up in the weeks to come.
The bear market is over.
This is good news. If prices went up with more shorting then it had to be met with stronger longs. SLV shorting is a hedge and cannot affect the price as in paper futures.
Since we are coming off of all time record bearish sentiment we are coming out of the low. The low has been set and silver will definitely move higher.
I was cautious based on last weeks COT. Future COT reports should show outright buying by hedge funds.
We are out of the woods.
Silver goes higher.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Considering that the US debt is public debt owned by you and by me, we are all in denial. If $10 trillion doesn't matter, what difference does $18 trillion make? Your portion is about $200,000, so is mine. It doesn't matter right now if you don't think about it. It will mater to our children though because it doesn't matter to us right now.
It doesn't matter.
I am long physical silver.
I think caution is needed when it comes to supply and demand.
Production may be down by design not by loss.
Miners are withholding and curtailing production numbers as prices drop and they are
shorting silver at the same time.
The mint curtailing production may be the same thing. Ration sales due to the price drop.
Inventory may be large when considering Comex, LME, and ETF inventory.
So, it may be a mixed picture that most people misinterpret.
Let's say that I am correct. This would explain the prolonged drop.
I try to simplify what causes the price of silver to rise to 1 factor:
Hedge fund buying.
All prior rallies in the last 10 years were caused by it.
This means interpreting the fundamentals is not necessary.
Silver cannot move up $5 without paper buying, meaning hedge funds.
All other rallies were preceded by hedge fund buying against commercial shorting.
This is not occurring at this time. The next few weeks are important.
Hold your horses. Friday was mildly bullish and the COT report is bearish since the rally so far has been short covering and no buying.
At best, there are contradictory signals and future COT reports will tell if there is going to be any real long positions established.
So far, I would not even be cautiously optimistic. Why? Future slow down in growth particularly in China, deflation, and rising interest rates may become detrimental.
So, the COT will reveal what will happen.
SLV is essentially an algorithm.
As long as enough people have enough confidence in what is happening with the economy, we live with status quo,
What I find ironic is the US Debt is called public debt, meaning it belongs to me and you. I own the debt that the government spends. It's not called government debt. We are trusting our future to a $20-25 trillion dollar monster, which cannot be paid.
The debt is no longer a problem in the public's eye. The question is when will it become real? Metals are 1 of a few things that is real in a paper menagerie world.
So, to make things real. The US Debt should be called "How much we spend today and take away from your children's future". ie. paper menagerie
So, how do you interpret SLV shorting numbers?
I think new long paper positions need to be established for the rally to sustain itself.
We should be able to see that in 1-2 weeks.
According to the COT report, hedge funds have been closing short positions and are not adding long positions. They have been reducing long positions. Historically, hedge funds need to take on long positions against commercial shorting. Banks have been adding to short positions in recent weeks.
The record setting volume seems to be day trading algorithms.
In order for the rally to continue, hedge funds will need to add long positions very soon.
Weekly records have been set 3 weeks in a row for both.
This may be the new norm.
Much higher liquidity.
Will we see another pop before the end of the day?