This is the first time in a LONG LONG time that I have been positive about Tower. I would have NEVER expected this from management. Wow.
I absolutely agree with that. Panasonic was a game changer. But, so was the Micron deal (for its time at least), which came and went. Also, the Panasonic ceal is not really creating any added net profit. It's just a revenue booster. So EPS should stay the same (not taking into account the $130 million they saved from the Japan fab closure). Perhaps I do not understand the market as you do, but I do have some adequate understanding of how the market works. I am asking you to elaborate on this: why should Tower's share price increase (or its market cap) to more than $700 million (which I think is generous)? Revenue of $1 billion, organic and non organic revenue growth combined of let's say 4-5% annually (which I believe is less than this), debt of $400 million (let's say $350 million), $180 million cash on hand, 10% gross profit (even 15% - on a good year), 50 million shares, another 25 million of convertible shares potentially coming in (it's only a matter of time) which is a 50% dilution rate, 7.9% annual interest to bond holders, and a market which has NEVER rated Tower favorably (look at their P/E which should probably be AT LEAST 6 but it non existent? So I am asking you to tell me, in your analysis, how you think Tower should be trading much higher than where we are today. This is not a rhetorical question, I am asking for your opinion.
Listen - I don't think my analysis is wrong. But, I hope, no - I PRAY - that you are right and I am wrong. I really really do.
The debt is also an issue, you can't just brush it aside. And yes - I agree the service of the debt is a main consideration. And look at Tower's terms. Are they favorable? No, they are not. How can you pay 8% to your bondholders when some years your gross profit is 6%?
I like Tower, I do...but there is too much non sense going on behind the scenes. I hope Tower reaches mid 20s - I will sell at that point, and I would urge anyone else to do so as well.
I have been with this stock since early 2009, been watching it since 2008. I know the stock history since 2004. I am pessimistic because I have been let down quite a few times by Tower over the past 5 years. Yes - I have made $20,000 on this stock, but I am currently down about $6,500. I am in at $22.50 ($1.50 pre reverse split). I am also pessimistic because of the MASSIVE amount of debt. I am also pessimistic because every time the share price increases, convertible bonds were cashed in or Tower management made an extremely poor judgment by getting "funding" on terrible terms (example: see YA Global Investments). Tower was primed to hit AT LEAST $2.50 per share. All analysts had a price target between $2.75-5. ALL of them. None of them hit...ever. There are reasons for this. The SAME reasons still exist today. You tell me - Tower increased revenue by 50% from 2008 to 2009. By close to 100% from 2009 to 2010. By close to 20% from 2010 to 2011. And so on and so forth. Yet the debt has largely stayed the SAME. 5 years ago the debt was $425-450 million. Today it is $405 million. Moreover, profit largely fluctuates and it is impossible to predict (only management has *some* type of understanding over it). In my years of investing in Tower, it has never been above 15% GROSS profit (not net). How then do we make money on this stock? We would need at least $2 billion in revenue. In order to reach that Tower needs funding, but that creates more debt...and so the cycle continues. THIS is my issue with Tower. Otherwise? Yeah, I wouldn't care what my neighbor says. But, unfortunately he may be right.
I actually know much more than most people about what is going on at Migdal Ha'Emek and their other fabs. My neighbor currently works at Intel in Jerusalem as a senior executive. He believes Tower will be gone - it's just a matter of time. There are a number of reasons for this, such as outdated technology and the fact that they have to constantly change projects in such a short amount of time (whereas Intel goes all in on one project and produces it for years). I don't have such drastic thoughts but as you said, what do I know? I clearly don't know what is going on.
EVEN keeping all of this out of the equation, you are really going to take the word of "analysts"? Okay, how has that worked out for Tower investors in the past? 4 years ago, Zach's put a price target of $5 (which would translate into $75 now) on Tower. Oppenheimer gave it a $3.50 (which would translate into $52.50 now) price target - all within 1-2 years. This was when Tower was trading at about $1.25 ($18.75). And what happened? There was a reverse split and it crashed to $4.
More importantly, you are not taking into account other factors which has always happened with Tower: more dilution, more debt, more bonds. So even if Tower adds revenue and profit, debt comes into play to average everything out. You will see - Tower won't trade above $25 (and that's being GENEROUS). And - you are wrong - I am holding 667 shares at $22.50. Over 6 years, I have lost confidence after seeing so much dilution year over year.
I 100% agree that Tower is under priced right now. BUT, it is not worth $30 or $40 as many people on this message board suggest. Debt **CAN** be paid down with future cashflow...the question is: will it? Look at history...it says it won't. THIS is my problem with Tower.
33 million? It's currently at 50 million outstanding shares, with a potential 25 million more (which would mean full dilution). It's actually not "potential" since it WILL happen - the question is when. And, we still have a few hundred million in debt. That's no joke. Momentum can take this MAYBE to $20 but as long as there is this much debt and dilution overhang, the market won't react THAT much. We have seen it over the past 10-15 years...twice. The same exact thing. Tower increases revenue by 100%, shoots up to $1.85 (which is now $27.75) and then comes right back down to Earth.
Tower WILL hit the (revenue) "numbers" but you will see - this stock won't go past $20-25 MAX.
Bio - I don't believe anything specific is happening. Tower deserves to trade at $12-15/share with the Panasonic deal. I have almost never seen a stock go from $4-5 to $12 overnight. It takes time. It's been one year since Tower was trading at $4 and this is considered an IMPRESSIVE feat.
Stocks that deserve to move up move up 5% at a time. That's all that's happening.
Other companies don't have this much debt (percentage wise) compared to sales. Tower has annual revenue of $850-900 million, of which 10-15% is GROSS profit (not net profit), and $405 million in debt. Any way you slice it - that is A LOT. I keep saying - IF Tower can take care of its debt (specifically by using its almost $200 million in cash on hand), Tower can reach $40/share, maybe even more. But as long as this debt is here AND they keep on diluting the share count, Tower is going no where.
Who cares about the estimates? It's all how the market reacts. The market could care less about EBITDA and NON GAAP net profit. So what if you have even $500 million in non GAAP net profit? If you GAAP net profit is negative $19 million, you ARE losing money. Plain and simple. Look at how Tower has traded, oh, the past 10 years. With the exception of one quarter, GAAP net profit was negative. The two times that Tower had a surge in price (2008-2010 and now over the past 6-10 months), it was all based on speculation. It had nothing to do with their fundamentals, because at the end of the day, Tower was and is losing money.
He is. GAAP net profits of NEGATIVE $19 million for Q3 2014. Even with all that revenue, Tower STILL cannot turn a profit. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
I thought I would NEVER say this about Tower but if you have more money to buy now, then I think you should do it. If I had more money and a higher tolerance for risk, then I would do it. In the past 6 years, Tower has never completely missed on earnings. Then this deal with Panasonic happened, while lowering their costs by $130 million per YEAR. It is almost impossible for Tower to go down on earnings release. Everything is a risk but this I think is a good one.
I think Tower will either beat earnings forecasts or be at the very high end of it. From watching this stock for 6 years actively now (and an additional 2 before that on and off), every time Tower beat earnings the stock shot up somewhere between 15-20% but then came down to 8-10% up on the day at the close of the market. Just following history, that's all.
This is my call:
Pre market on earnings day release TSEM goes up somewhere between 12-15%, finishes at 7-8% up at market closing.
Great, so loan payments were reduced for the year...but, they are still there (and now more). More debt keeps piling up. Anyone have a debt count for Tower?
For the first time I think ever, I fully agree with Cravi. This is a time to go all in with Tower. It will hit at least $12 by Q4 earnings release. This is literally almost a guarantee unless the world goes to sh1t. This is nothing but a healthy decline. Remember, Tower is up WAY over 100% in a, what, 10 month period? That's insane. We can't realistically expect Tower to always climb...or even just drop a few cents here or there. The fall back is generally in relation to how big of a climb a stock made, at least from what I've seen in my lifetime. This is a 25% decline on a 120% incline. Now is the time to buy, especially with all of the information we have:
Tower saving $130 million which directly affects (positively) their balance sheet.
Tower hitting $900 million in sales for 2014.
Tower going back to a 15% profit margin (instead of 6-10% in very recent years).
And, this would be a VERY good bet if India finally goes through (formally speaking). This will send Tower up I'd guess another 10-15%.