Many people have said what you have over the past several years. None have been correct. Don't get me wrong - I hope you are right. But chances are you aren't. Tower will move up, but it won't "run."
You all are obviously making a really strong effort in trying to destroy the TSEM stock value. You have written countless articles. You have had shady lawyers blast the internet with $99 PRs about "potential fraud." You have most certainly colluded (even if there is no material evidence; luckily for you, you are subject to US laws which are very easy to game).
My point and question to all of you shorts is this: you have spent many MONTHS now, probably close to several hundreds of hours, in trying to "show" what's wrong with Tower. But, the one area you have stayed away from? Quarterly earnings conference calls. Why?
As a long term share holder, I would love to see you jump on one of these calls and "call out" management. Ask away. By the way, I am not being facetious here, I really mean it. Maybe you are onto something? Or maybe you are wrong? I honestly don't know. BUT, we will get a better understanding if you were to ask your questions on the conference call. So, why haven't you done it yet? In my honest opinion, at first I thought that many (if not all) of you believed something was/is fundamentally wrong with Tower (either as a business or the management team, or both). But then, I thought about it. No effort to directly engage with the company. None. Over a one year period. Not once did you try to not only contact them, but even just ask simple questions on an open earnings conference call. Why not? I have no idea but it IS strange.
If you really believe something is wrong with Tower, spend legitimately 15 minutes of your time (including wait time) to find out more by calling in on the next earnings call. You can ask questions like: why have you moved COGS to R&D? Etc. etc. If you really believe something is wrong with Tower, get on the call. An action like that will have MUCH better results for you (if you are indeed correct) than writing fluff pieces on Seeking Alpha and getting no name lawyers involved.
Yes, I agree. Cash is king. But, there are exceptions and clearly Tower is one of them. Tower has been producing excellent cash results for a while now, so what gives? My point exactly.
On the other hand, I have been following Tower now for 7 YEARS (years, not months). The one consistent? P/S. You can't just brush that aside, especially when P/S has been pretty much steady against all other financial indicators. Show me a time in the past decade where Tower has traded more than 1.5x sales or even less than 0.6x sales? More importantly, if you look back over the past decade, Tower has for the overwhelming majority of the time traded near 1x sales (between 0.9x - 1.1x). That's as consistent as it gets if you ask me.
While $15 isn't impossible, Tower reaching that level would have to do solely with speculation and investor sentiment. Given the fact that investor sentiment here isn't all that great, Tower should be trading at 1.1-1.2x sales (CURRENTLY), which would = $12.85 - $14.02 (based on non fully diluted share count). Based on fully diluted would be $10.33 - $11.27. The middle of these? $12.18, which just so happens to be right about where we are now. Coincidence? I think not.
On that note, we should wait until Q's 3 & 4...Tower's stock always performs better then. In turn, P/S ratio should climb to 1.3-1.4x. I believe Tower hits $15 in September 2016. I would be (pleasantly) surprised to see higher than this number sooner than that.
He's right. I don't remember but some analyst house gave them a $28 PT. The lowest we've seen is $18, but others have $20 and $24. Either way, they are ALL wrong. One year PT is more likely to be $16-17. MAYBE it hits $18 if management does a good job of hyping the stock like they have over the past 1-2 years. But that's a big maybe. And don't forget dilution. Any more of that and we're cooked.
A word of advice from soneone who's been watching Tower religiously for 7 years now? NEVER EVER trust the analyst price targets. Ever. They have never once come true...or even CLOSE for that matter.
Oh come on. I am not a fan of management but even I recognize what they said. A year ago, they mentioned that it would be nice additional revenue but they aren't planning or factoring India into their growth.
Math - not sure how much lower you and your (obvious) short network think you can take it but it's not that much further down (barring an economic recession). It's already lower than I thought it would go and to be honest...you are playing a VERY VERY dangerous game at these levels. On a side note, I would not recommend anyone to buy this stock (since there are better plays on the market) but still...you are clinically insane for continuing to short at the current price. Good luck.
Yes, this is nothing new. There has NEVER been any significant interest in Tower, which makes it easy for manipulation. But, there is nothing to worry about here, especially if you aren't holding Tower long term. Right now, Tower is trading at 0.96x sales. Like I have always said, Tower usually trades at around 1x sales. I will say that I am surprised that Tower isn't currently trading between 1.1 and 1.2x sales. But, that could be due to it being Q1 which is historically bad for semis (even though Tower is doing well). Give it 6-9 months time, Tower will be back to $13-14 and maybe slightly higher.
Yes I agree. It's nothing actually, which is why management likely put COGS under R&D. What I'm suggesting is for management to go back to the way it reported in the past and put COGS separate of R&D. I think this will eliminate a lot of the *perceived* ambiguity on the balance sheet. Also, I believe this will help move the stock price drastically - either up a lot or down a lot...but one of the two will happen.
Thank you Jaret; just read the article. I hope your analysis and PT comes true.
Just one question for you: leaving aside depreciable life, how come Tower can't go back to reporting how it has historically (primarily meaning COGS separate of R&D)? I think this would either shut up the shorts or kill the longs. But, it WILL make the picture clearer.
I don't think Ofer's holdings will create that much overhang, if any at all...it's only an additional few million shares. Back when Tower had $400 million worth of capital notes, Tower's stock was still able to hit $1.50 (the equivalent to $22.50 now). So no, I don't believe it will have much (if any) effect on the stock price.
As for stock buyback: I don't know if it's 4 or 8 quarters of profitability, I need to check. Either way, it's something they should consider to boost shareholder confidence considering how low it is. But, will they? I doubt it. They will do whatever is in the best interests of the company FIRST, then the shareholders.
The one plaintiff who was probably paid off by the lawyers, who are in cahoots with the shorts.
In any event, this will end up blowing up in the short's faces. I am SURE. This is not a winnable case what-so-ever - legally speaking. I have spoken with several high profile lawyers here in Israel who are familiar with Tower and all have said there is zero case to be made.
This will blow up in their faces DIRECTLY because of this lawsuit. If they were smart, they would have just let Tower continue doing what they are doing. Eventually management would have diluted more. There would have been a natural decline in stock price. But now there is WAY too much scrutiny. I am loving it. If you are long, you should love it to. There is literally, ABSOLUTELY, NO WAY management can dilute now. It's physically impossible. And really, this is the only thing holding Tower back. This **WAS** the big "what if." Now? It's a certainty there won't be more dilution. I hope these legal proceedings drag out as long as possible, as I don't trust management with dilution.
Anthony - I am not sure why my posts keep on getting tossed. But, again, I'd like you to explain something to me.
Tower will have $1.1 billion in revenue for 2016. At 40% margins, that's $440 million in gross profit. By all analyst estimates, Tower is expecting at least $3 EPS. Using an 85 million share count, that's $255 million in NET profit. That seems *somewhat* possible on $440 million in gross profit.
Towers REAL gross margins are NOT 40%. Like everyone knows, they moved COGS to R&D. REAL gross margins are likely around 20%, which would mean Tower has annual gross profit for 2016 of $220 million. So, how is Tower's NET profit above ($255 million) higher than actual gross profit of $220 million? It doesn't make sense. This is financial engineering any way you look at it.
Firstly, you are being too kind. I am just an amateur investor.
That said, I wish what you said was true but I don't think it's that simple. Even if Tower is fully diluted, we can't **accurately** price EPS (and ultimately price per share) because the gross margins on paper aren't the actual REAL gross margins. There are two ways this is going to play out:
1) In 'X' period of time, the market forgets Tower's history of COGS and real gross margins, and starts applying EPS on paper (according to gross margins on paper) to Tower's share price. This will boost Tower's share price to about $20/share. $3 EPS x P/E of 6-7 = about $20.
2) The market never buys the accounting stunt Tower management pulled, even in a year from now (or at any time in the future). Hence, we trade a bit up from where we are now, but no where near $20.
I'm not sure which will happen. Small cap investors have a short memory (or no memory since they don't follow stocks for more than a year or so) so it's easy to look at manufactured gross margins and say "wow look at this"...but does the market have a short memory as well? This is the million dollar question.
The way I see it - if you are long and you bought in under $15, you won't lose money; you'll only gain. But if you're really long (like me), you break even at best case scenario.
The stock was higher last March due to the massive addition of Panasonic revenues. Generally speaking, Q1 for semi's is not a good quarter, especially for Tower. This year, like last year, will be different though. I agree with you - the stock will trade higher after Q1 results and CC are out. This is not only because of continued Panasonic revenues but also revenues from Maxim that I believe Tower already starts seeing this quarter if I'm not mistaken. Tower management will no doubt boast about record revenue figures and everything else.
As for Kenon (and all other shares/options that haven't been converted yet): this is probably holding Tower back. When Tower had $400 million in capital notes, that created a HUGE overhang effect. As long as Tower isn't fully diluted, I'm pretty sure this will have the same "overhang" effect as the capital notes did a few years ago. Obviously not to the same extent but still. Tower won't reach their full potential. Also, it doesn't help that Kenon sold out a portion of their holdings recently. On the contrary to what you said - Israelis DIDN'T believe they would sell (Ofer made note years ago and continuously throughout the years that he has no intention of selling unless the stock performs ridiculously well). The stock hasn't performed amazingly (it's down 50% from 2010) and shares were sold. So, this left over holdings will create real overhang IMO because now we are just waiting for them to convert the rest (since they already converted once now).
As for shorts like Spruce: like I said, I encourage more short articles. If they continuously bring up dilution, management can't just keep on diluting. They never have done so when they were called out in the previous years and they won't. In any event, I don't care about what shorts have to say. They are wrong...just like the analysts.
Are you insane? As a direct definition of gross margins from Wikipedia: "Gross margin is the difference between revenue and cost of goods sold, or COGS, divided by revenue, expressed as a percentage. Generally, it is calculated as the selling price of an item, less the cost of goods sold (production or acquisition costs, essentially)."
Comp: you're seriously making yourself look like a tool. GTFO of here already with your "better than thou" BS.
The ONLY difference between gross margin (which is the same exact thing as gross profit) and net profit is what you take home before and after all is said and done. So yeah, 40% IS defined as profit genius...just not net, but rather gross. There are people (analysts) who use these figures (EPS via gross margins) to calculate a stock price. Seriously, I'm not a pro but get it together.
Scbest: but you should care how they expense their costs. Like I said, it is impossible (literally - impossible) to show 40% profit on something you buy for 80 cents and sell for $1. You do agree with that, don't you? So you should care that the balance sheet is all fluffed up. They are literally just making the numbers look awesome. This really does affect the bottom line. Not on paper, but in reality. If it didn't affect the bottom line, then please explain how Tower isn't trading at $20+ today? If Tower's numbers were 100% real, it is IMPOSSIBLE for them to be trading this low. Impossible, impossible, impossible. The only other case one could make is that people are shorting the heck out of Tower. But, that's not true as we can see by the short interest in Tower. So, do the math yourself. If you have an explanation as to why Tower is trading this low, then I'd love to hear it.
I have mentioned that revenues are growing. It's fantastic. But, EPS is definitely not accurate. If you pay 80 cents for something and sell it for a dollar, how is your margin 40%? It's impossible. And since Tower reports 40% margins, well then EPS is impossible to calculate.
There is DEFINITELY growth but it's not as much as Tower makes it out to be.