gregj, I suggest you pull up the latest NQ 10Q and the the Alibaba prospectus. All the details are there. It would take too long to list all of the things that NQ has the Alibaba does not have that would be hugely beneficial for Alibaba.
The future is all mobile. That is why NQ is a top acquisition target. With the IPO proceeds, Alibaba will be flush with cash to engage in acquisitions. Acquiring NQ will help the company compete with TenCent and other Chinese mobile technology companies in the all-too-crucial mobile space.
Absolutely. Facebook paid a ton for Whatsapp and it's not like Whatapp's financials were all that impressive. Same story with Instagram. It's about the users. Alibaba would be smart to take a look at the number of mobile users that NQ has.
This makes sense. It would be a great move for Alibaba because mobile seems to be everything now. Everything is trending towards mobile.
Carson may be mostly or entirely out of his NQ short position, but he knows that his reputation is on the line. NQ will be his Waterloo and Bernstein is going to take him through the wringer. Times up Carson. The writing is on the wall for you and Muddy Waters.
It's all about the users in the early stages. That's how you get monetization. If Facebook would have focused on monetization early on instead of expanding the user base, the company would be nowhere near as large as it is today. NQ is doing an excellent job expanding its user base with VLife while it is pulling in a lot of profits through its other businesses. VLife is a game changer. This is great analysis. Thanks for posting.
There are 500 million people in China (and growing by the way) that are mobile users. This is a huge market and NQ Mobile is right at the cutting edge of this market. Mobile is the present and the foreseeable future. CMCM, in the same market as NQ with significantly less revenue, right now is valued around $2.51 billion, roughly 6.09 times NQ's market cap. Valuing NQ at around the same multiple of CMCM (which is conservative since NQ's revenues are over $200 million and CMCM's around $150 million) would put NQ shares around $41 a share. And remember, this is a conservative valuation! Once that 20-F comes out, I expect NQ to quickly rise to around $25 a share MINIMUM.
And guess who is right in the thick of things? You guessed it. NQ Mobile.
They're riding a wave of growth in the world's largest Internet market. China had some 618 million Internet users in 2013 as some 53 million logged onto the Web for the first time. But that's still less than half of China's population. Internet users there could reach 725 million by 2016, or 58% of the population, according to iResearch.
China's e-commerce market is expected to reach $630 billion in 2016 from an estimated $300 billion in 2013.
Mobile e-commerce more than doubled last year to $27 billion as mobile surfers hit 500 million, iResearch said. It's expected to account for $131 billion in 2016.
GREEN! From the price action today as well as the price action on the day it was announced that PwC was fired, it is now clear as day that NQ is in a very, very strong bullish trend. Supposedly 'bad' news that should tank the stock is shrugged off and I suspect some very large buyers are waiting, watching, and acting on any opportunity to get shares cheap. The shareholders that dumped their position earlier today in pre-market and when the stock opened are definitely regretting it now. Congrats to those that stepped in and bought more shares. You deserve the gains. But the huge gains are still in future and by the looks of it, right around the corner!
This makes sense. If there was any substance to the resignation, then the shares would be trading much lower than they are now. This is a great opportunity to load up. Back up the truck folks!
I stopped doing that a long time ago. Most of the garbage posters I have on ignore and the vast majority of these garbage posters are shorts. The best way to deal with them is to totally ignore them. Don't respond directly to their posts. Put any response to shorts in a really good post to bump it up to the top. I only directly respond to those with substantive posts. I haven't found any substantive or decent posts made by shorts on this board.
Shorts are going to have to compete with institutions to cover their positions. According to the Wall Street Journal, China Mobile is on the prowl for acquisitions. NQ would be a nice acquisition for China Mobile because China Mobile is facing threats from TenCent and other companies that are putting pressure on its bottom line. Buying NQ would be a way to diversify China Mobile's revenue streams and buy some protection against competitive pressures.
NQ is turning into a classic example of how not to short.
1) YOU DON'T SHORT WHEN SOMETHING LIKE 100% OF THE FLOAT IS ALREADY SHORTED!
2) YOU DON'T SHORT WHEN INSTITUTIONS LIKE CHINA ROCK ARE BUYING SHARES HAND OVER FIST.
3) YOU DON'T SHORT WHEN THE SHORT THESIS HAS BEEN DISPROVED. YES, FOLKS, THE CASH IS THERE, THE CUSTOMERS/PARTNERSHIPS ARE REAL, THE COMPANY IS REAL.
I think the most logical explanation for the crazy low volume is that:
(1) institutions and funds have been buying up the stock and have been putting their shares in cash accounts (which prevents those shares from being borrowed). This takes a lot of the churn out of the stock until these institutions and funds what to sell. My guess is that they want to sell at much higher prices...north of $25 a share which is the point around which the convertible debt can be converted into an equity position.
(2) the big shorts have largely covered their position and moved on. I would love to see Muddy Waters still have a large short position...but I'm afraid that MW is already out of most of their short position. It would be great if MW had a massive short position and recently added because it would be great theater to watch such a #$%$ 'research' shop go down in the flames of what I believe to be the upcoming, and inevitable, motherlode of all short squeezes.
There's hardly any shares turning over at these prices...why you ask? Well, that's because as many have already astutely pointed out on this board, the NQ shares are increasing in strong hands. This means that shorts will have to pay a fortune to cover their position. I think NQ's future short squeeze will make Tesla's recent short squeeze tame in comparison. This is the perfect storm folks. One side is about to absolutely get ravaged and it looks like that will be the short side.
Looking at the price and volume action, it looks like NQ shorts will have a hell of a time trying to get out of their short position. Someone on this board posted something about it being possible for NQ shares to hit $100 a share because of a short squeeze. I kind of laughed thinking...there's no way NQ will hit $100 a share on a short squeeze, quite possibly $35 a share, but not $100 on a short squeeze. Now...I'm not laughing anymore. Seriously, it looks like $100 a share is possible. I almost feel sorry for the shorts thinking about how terrifying it will be for them when the motherlode of all short squeezes hits them in the face.
The shorts are really, really screwed. There will soon be no more shares of any significant number available for shorts to borrow and short. How will they cover? It looks like we might get to $35 a share much, much faster than I had originally thought.
Yes, you are absolutely correct! These shorts are crazy. They are setting themselves up to be on the wrong side of an EPIC SHORT SQUEEZE.
Seriously, instead of wasting their time pasting on this board all kinds of nonsense, if these shorts really did believe in what they were posting, they would short more of the stock and work overtime to short even more shares. The fact that they are wasting their time posting contentless #$%$ on the message boards shows that the short theory is defunct and that shorts are desperate.