I didn't read the full announcement. Just skimmed the beginning which seemed to be focused on value creation at CF by things such as creating a new MLP, paying higher dividends, etc. I didn't see much relevance to TNH (beyond a vote of confidence in nitrogen production, as you say), certainly not to cause a 10% gain in TNH.
It wasn't me arguing with you about EPD, that was arbtr.
I inserted an occasional interjection but didn't take any strong position on either side.
Don't remember the NS discussion. Nobody can argue performance there has been pretty horrible over any reasonable period.
As for EPB, I think our positions are not so divergent. You say they may knock the price down in order for insiders to buy cheap units. I said they may knock the price down in order to facilitate a merger with KMP at better terms for KMP. That's hardly too much of a distinction.
Sure, I posted them. It was relevant information for NTI to use as you like. Are you another one who prefers to ignore all news about your investments and invest based on hoping for the best without any actual information?
"And there is no indication they plan to change policy because THEY would not get any distributions either if they eliminated distributions."
Well that is a silly statement. If they eliminated distributions they could keep all the cash for themselves. They are the real owners of NTI now, they make the rules. But as I've said, I assume they bought the GP because the like the model and therefore don't plan on immediately dismantling it.
Yes, if cold weather persists through say january, price could certainly make a run at $5. But it would be very temporary and would likely be back at recent levels by March. I don't think we are really disagreeing here.
another pipeline announcement. On top of the 700kb/d from Transcanada's Keystone starting on Jan 3rd, Seaway Twin will provide an additional extra 400kb/d in 1H 2014, possibly even Q1.
"First quarter is still a possibility for start-up but additional time was built into the schedule to allow for any final tasks, or prep work that may need to be completed as we get closer to the start of service."
People will say this is 'bashing' but in fact it is news which which impact refiner margins (via reducing Brent-WTI spreads). People who are aware of investment influencing moves will be in a better position than those who like to close their eyes and invest blind.
which will be another 400kb/d takeaway from Cushing on top of the 700k from Keystone.
Announcement says start of service will be H1 2014 with possibility of Q1.
unlike you and your transparent lies (massive insider buying, indeed), I always have a source for everything I post. Nothing is made up.
If you cast your mind back, you may recall that I focussed on their estimate for the Q3 distribution which was published when the quarter was either already over or within a few days of it. You hardly heard me mention the further out estimates. Same thing this quarter - wait till the end of the quarter and look at their updated estimate for Q4 then.
You are correct however there has been no indication any such change is planned. They only just bought the GP, I think they'd be unlikely to immediately go and mess with it. No point in worrying about future 'what ifs' like that are there are any number of things that might positively or negatively impact this investment over the next years.
That is based on BOE which is a composite of revenues from oil and NG. Rhianni was probably assuming you meant just oil sales.
He has no idea what he is trying to say. This guy is on just about all MLPs and trusts boards for YEARS, doing nothing but making silly ominous sounding statements. He has never invested a penny in the space (long or short) so it's a mystery why he gets his kicks in that way.
No, I don't think that's the question. We know they will stop all drilling activity for the trust as per their schedule. SD has no such limitations regarding their own production. You don't need to be einstein to realize that SD is not going to spend a penny beyond their obligations.
So, still no credible answer on the decline characteristics of these wells after the end of the drilling obligation. The logical conclusion is that nobody knows.
Not quite sure of the details, however if they are trust wells I think they could not be re-hedged. Essentially the rule is whatever contracts are there at trust inception are all there will ever be. No business activities (such as purchasing derivatives) is allowed after trust inception.
"it is very easy to make hydrogen (even I have made) and can be made almost very inexpensivly after the initial equipment cost (which is also inexpensive)."
So how come nobody has been able to do it economically on a commercial scale? Your back yard chemistry experiments don't count. And it it the energy cost that is more important than the monetary cost, otherwise you end up with another negative EROEI boondoggle like ethanol.