The parent company of NTI believes it is time to sell not buy. They have made two big sales of their units in the last 6 months or so.
Refineries like that are boom and bust. Right now is the boom. Which means you are buying high. The spreads which made them so profitable in the last few quarters has already narrowed significantly.
The parent knows this and that is why they have been a seller.
On top of which NTI and ALDW are single refinery operations. One big explosion (which happens often at refineries) and they are out of operations for an extended period, which would mean halt of distributions and huge drop in price). Decent short term reward but very high risk.
According to the source I quoted, the last quote (ie. previous day's closing price) is automatically adjusted downwards by the amount of the dividend. Additionally all open bid and asks are automatically adjusted by the amount of the dividend. That is not what you said at all. You said no adjustment is made. I quoted several sources that say it is. You can google them.
"there is no way that a trust that is worth $8 will sell for 13. At least not for long."
You really haven't been around these trusts for long.
WHX was priced at 3 times its real value for years. GNI has been for years and still is priced at 2-3 times its real value.
Both of those are terminating within 2 years so the real value is easy to estimate.
Dan hasn't written any negative articles. He simply reported and explained what was stated in the trust's own SEC filings. It can only be negative if the trust's filings were themselves negative.
You can have those philosophical discussions in some more appropriate forum.
Why must you ruin the only message board intended for discussion about the MLP LINE?
This, like CVRR and the other variable distribution MLPs you promote, will be up and down. It will go above 25 and it will be back below it again sometime later. The variable distribution MLPs will be up and down with the distributions. The refiners especially won't maintain their high payouts and unit prices with the spreads already having closed so much.
They haven't created new message boards for any securities issued after the yahoo message board upgrade which was, what?, 6 months or so ago? I believe people have asked but they will not create any new ones. Seems they are not that committed to these boards going forward, which seems funny given that they just went to the effort of upgrading the format not long ago.
The facts didn't change.
I told you as long as you've been on this board that the current distribution would be below 50c.
Until it actually happened, you wouldn't listen.
The facts didn't change, only you finally chose to believe them.
the lack of capex and dropping productions has been going on for considerably longer than the lawsuit has been an issue. It's been commented on occasionally on the board for a few years. I don't think the lawsuit has anything to do with it. After all, the drilling decisions are made by the operator which is now Exxon and that lawsuit cannot be much of an annoyance for them.
No doubt at some NG price, there would be new drilling, but not sure at what price point that would happen.
If you bothered to check actual definitions you would find that it actually represents "the value at which the assets is carried on a balance sheet" which in turn reflects "the initial outlay for an investment". In the case of a trust like this it represents the valuation of the assets when the trust was created.
Your problem is that you are new to trusts and even to commodity producers and keep trying to apply all sorts of corporate stock concepts to these different vehicles.
yes, for a few days.
Within a very short time the price was back in the 60s
from the same source:
"To reflect the company's reduced value, before the open of trading on the ex-dividend date the stock exchanges automatically reduce the previous day's closing price quote of the company's stock by the amount of the dividend, calculated by dividing the total amount of the dividend by the number of shares of stock."
"So, at the opening of trading on the ex-dividend date, the previous day's closing price is reduced automatically by the stock exchange by fifty cents, and trading begins on the basis of the adjusted price. "
Here's a more technical explanation:
" It's commonly stated that the price of a stock is automatically adjusted down by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date and while in practice it often looks as if that's what takes place, technically that's not really what happens. The only trade price that the exchange reduces by the exact amount of a dividend is the quote of the previous day's close, not any actual trade. But because the quote of the previous day's closing trade AND the bid and the ask of all outstanding orders are also reduced (unless placed with a Do Not Reduce restriction) by the exchange, plus the fact that the net asset value of the stock is now less (by the exact amount of the dividend), when trading begins on the ex-date the effect is usually a reduction in price approximating the size of the dividend, as traders are well aware of the reduction in the stock's net asset value."
The following is pasted from a wiki article:
"When a company pays a large dividend,the market may account for that dividend in the days preceding the ex-div date by a rise in the price of the stock. This is because buyers are willing to pay a premium to receive the dividend. However, on the ex-div date, the exchange automatically reduces the price of the stock by the amount of the dividend. If the dividend is $1, and the stock had been offered at $40 and bid at $39.50 the day before, on the ex-div date the offer price and bid price will be adjusted to $39 and the bid to $38.50 to account for the fact that the dividend is not included. When this happens, the stock is said to have gone ex-dividend and is marked with an "x" in the quote systems and newspaper stock price listings. "
Yes, it's funny. He said above that you could lower your loss by buying for $4.50 and then collecting $3.60 in distributions before the trust ends up worthless. Some way to reduce your loss by adding another 90c loss per unit. No wonder folks here lose money with math like that.