TNH is down a lot also.
Since all 3 of the fertilizer MLPs are down significantly, it is logical that they entire sector has deteriorating fundamentals and is out of favor, right?
Which doesn't mean it will last forever.
I don't own units and never have.
I am short puts which are in the money but that doesn't stop me rolling them forward each quarter for pretty good premium. I can do that indefinitely so the price decline doesn't particularly concern me,
I guess everytime one of your investments goes down it can only mean manipulation.
And what is your purpose in asking such silly questions like "let's all take a vote on how low the price will go"?
It will go as low as the market takes it and anyone's opinion here won't change that. So it's pointless to ask.
you were correct with PAA but made a mistake with PAA?
And you are surprised nobody understands what you are talking about?
What can you expect from someone who also wrote this
"Friday the 13th this stock drops like a rock.
There are still people who don't understand the ex-div date."
In your alternate reality, surging demand is a sign that demand is about to collapse.
I guess you abandoned your last argument that demand is falling meaning a recession is coming.
You switched to demand is rising meaning a recession is coming.
In fact, demand is rising because the global economy is improving:
"Last week, the International Energy Agency revised its forecast for global demand growth up for both this year and next to 1.2 million barrels per day due to a more constructive outlook for the world economy."
Note that the question would not concern me for regular c-corp E&Ps, nor for MLPs or even for traditional trusts which keep doing drilling and well development. It only concerns me with respect to the new structure trusts which have defined drilling obligations. The complete list of those is ECT, SDT, SDR, PER and CHKR.
"Try to find some examples of that happening"
This comment is bogus since there are no examples of trust structures like this prior to ECT.
"it is silly to think these wells will simply stop producing in a matter of years. Try to find some examples of that happening"
Tight oil and gas wells made to flow via fracking have only been around for a few years, so the long history of conventional wells you are talking about is meaningless. Nobody really knows the long term (or even medium term) performance of wells in tight rock. It is uncharted territory. I have no knowledge but I am raising a question on whether it is possible for the rock to "close up" again some time after the last frack job and become mostly impermeable. Probably nobody has the answer because the answer will not be known for some more years.
"4. No way, no how, barring a market meltdown of serious proportions. The metrics are going to be too good, and all these upstreams are trading at yields well above where they should be. That will correct to the mean eventually, especially as LINE fades from the news."
If it happened last quarter it can happen again. It's about time for Hedgeye to pop up again.
"1. Distribution will be increased in each of the 12 months throughout 2014."
Absolutely no way this will happen. Just because they go to monthly distributions doesn't imply they raise the payout more than once per quarter.
"5. Probably at least one of these predictions will turn out to be wrong. "
At least you'll get that one right.
"Each put contract has to be considered on its own."
You unknowingly have just confirmed what I have been explaining to you for years and you never stop disputing.
Since I've been rolling the puts forward for years every 3 months and each put contract is considered on its own, then all those previous iterations in the roll sequence are closed out long ago and those hundreds of thousands of dollars premiums I've told you about are PROFIT since those contracts are already closed out. Your silly argument is equivalent to saying that nobody ever has a profit in the market unless he has withdrawn all investments and is no longer in the market at all. You don't get that I have 5 or so years worth of CLOSED put positions and all the existing ones were opened in the last 3 months (a few with leaps in the last year).
As for your statement that premiums are not cash flow, well that's just silly and shows you have no idea what cash flow means.
just like your long position is lost if the unit price goes to zero.
What is your point?
No need to answer, it's clear you don't have one.
"All you do is quote other internet sources,"
Another way of saying that I actually do research and therefore have facts at my disposal.
As opposed to some people who post whatever comes into their head without any concern at all for accuracy.