"How does a 700,000 barrel out-flow offset millions coming from Bakken and other Shale plays."
Duh, this is not the only pipeline out of Cushing. It is an incremental 700k/day soon to be followed by further increased takeaway capacity. Yes, look for Cushing inventories to resume dropping as they did for 3-4 months continuously until the last 1-2 months where they rebounded a bit.
As for Brent, I didn't say it would go down sharply, although that is possible. A spread can be narrowed from either end, you know.
yes, we get that you understand the word 'fuel'.
Try now to figure out the word 'source'.
"Where does hydrogen come from?
Hydrogen, the universe’s most common element, does not occur in a naturally free state. It is bonded to other elements. For this energy carrier to be used as a fuel, it has to be produced. This can be done in many ways. The most commonly used method is reforming hydrocarbons, like natural gas, propane, methanol butane or propane. It can be produced from sustainable sources of methane such as biomass or land-fill gas. It can also be obtained by electrolysis, breaking apart water, or it can be extracted from carbon-free compounds, such as ammonia or boron compounds. Renewable energy sources, like wind, solar, geothermal and hydroelectric power, can all be used to produce hydrogen.
Hydrogen can be produced in dedicated plants and transported, or it can be produced in small point-of-use units. In production processes which generate hydrogen as a by-product, fuel cell technology is used to generate electricity and heat."
now that you have demonstrated understanding of the word 'fuel', try to work on the word 'source' and see if you can get an understanding of that word.
according to guidance, there will be zero distribution growth through Q4 2014. At least 5 quarters of no increase. I suspect it has further to fall if it is transitioning from a high growth to zero growth MLP.
Trying to help you...going around insulting people is not the way to get answers to your questions. Now this is another board where everyone will have you on ignore. You'll need to try again somewhere else.
I have more than thoughts as the company has told us precisely when and how much.
Check the company press releases - you will likely like what you find.
Or shall I do the work for you?
3c/qtr increases starting Q1 2014 through 2015.
Of course, I'm not saying you should blindly believe every article written by a short (or long). But to dismiss a reasoned analysis based on the disclosure does yourself a disservice. You can read the analysis and decide for yourself whether it has merit. In this case, is there anything in particular you don't agree with besides the fact that the author may have the courage of his convictions to put his money where his mouth is? Seriously, if the author believes his analysis, what would you expect him to do? Be long? Clearly not. Have no position? Why not if he believes what he wrote? It only makes sense for him to be short if he believes his own analysis.
Your statement still implies we should only believe people who don't invest in the market. Like taking car recommendations from people who nothing about cars.
I prefer to listen to people who are confident enough to put their own money at stake. You may prefer to people who write generic articles based on screens who have no special knowledge of the subject of their recommendations.
A little bit and for a month or two but NG will be back down again well before spring, so it hardly changes the big picture.
Even if it did, the seasonal early winter spike in NG prices will be reversed well before start of spring, so it hardly changes anything.
It may well eventually be merged into KMP (however probably not in 2014) but with Kinder controlling all entities there would be no reason to offer much of a premium. You won't get those bumps you are suggesting.
However the 2% is versus the whole of 2013. If you examine it, it implies the current distribution will not be increased through Q4 2014 (0.65 * 4 = $2.60). Zero distribution growth means the price has to come down further, imo.
CHKR is probably sell selling their gas for not much more than $2. And on top of your points, the rise in NG is just the usual seasonal variation. It typically spikes a little at the start of cold winter weather but by spring (or well before) it will be back down again. No doubt it can get in the $4-$4.50 range on some cold weather by in a few months it will be below $4 again. Maybe results in a few pennies more for one distribution but hardly changes anything in the big picture.
You are wrong as usual. This is one of the fastest growing MLPs.
I purchased my stake back when it came out at $22. Including distributions I am almost a triple on my original investment. That is what you have been missing with your continued negativity against the best performing asset class in the entire market over the last 15-20 years.
It will be 700k b/d more coming out of Cushing. The last couple of months of Cushing growing again will reverse starting January. By definition that will support WTI prices since WTI is priced at Cushing.
Yes, it may result in a bottleneck in the Gulf region, so will be interesting to see if this forces down LLS prices.
And yes, we knew it was coming. I have mentioned several times that Keystone South would start operating in 2014. But until there was a firm date, the market doesn't tend to price it in.
NG prices may go above $4 (probably not about $4.50) during winter as that is the usual seasonal pattern. But come spring (or before then), it will likely be back below $4 due to the continued record setting production levels. Unless you are doing short term trades for the start of winter effect, all the talk of cold weather is not very meaningful. A month or two of $4+ prices and then back below $4 again. Likely that pattern may continue for quite a few years (until there are meaningful export volumes).
Well you have admitted that you have been trading for 30 years with pretty mediocre results. But just because you are not good at it doesn't mean others aren't better.