"Why is this simple supply-and-demand logic evading your bird's brain?"
supply and demand logic? You completely ignored supply (despite many warnings by producers of well shut ins due to the weather). You mentioned nothing but demand.
You're likely going to look pretty foolish in 2 weeks if there is a huge draw and you will probably deny these dozens of posts you're making now. No doubt you'll be having to wire even more money into your account at that point too.
Well chosen yahoo handle though. Very suitable.
Well you clearly don't realize that production is as important to inventory movement as demand when you make the amazing howler "Oil production is not hampered by cold weather."
There have been many Permian (and elsewhere) oil producers warning of significant production impact to their production from shut ins due to severe weather and they don't know how long the interruptions will last. Yet you are confidently projecting huge builds because people aren't driving as much. You have a bit of learning to do before you risk any more money speculating on oil. You will be one of the ones to get slaughtered by the professionals who know what they are doing.
P.S. Your 'sentence' didn't actually make any sense as it was not gramatically correctly constructed, nor is your reply above. So taking your statement "I don't know about oil inventory" at face value is the logical course since it is so clearly true.
So, I was right. Having to wire money into your account to cover margin calls. No wonder you're sounding desperate. Thing is you're wrong and even the oil shorts are telling you so. Texas being frozen will be significantly reducing oil production from the Permian and more than likely will result in inventory draws rather than the huge builds you are implying. Within 2 weeks, you're probably going to be backtracking claiming you never said any of this. You are already exposed as not having a clue on the subject with this howler: "Oil production is not hampered by cold weather".
I keep making money either way. MLPs are up 26% YTD. I only 'crawled out of my hole' to correct your ridiculous nonsense about the winter impact.
Your clueless quote: "Oil production is not hampered by cold weather."
While oil producers have been coming out left and right issuing warning that they have wells shut in due to severe weather and don't know how long they will be shut in.
You are going to look pretty foolish if there is a draw in the next couple of EIA reports.
from the freeportlng website...
Commencement of Construction 2Q 2014
Liquefaction Train 1 In-Service Date 1Q 2018
Liquefaction Train 2 In-Service Date 2018
Liquefaction Train 3 In-Service Date 2019
The website has a project status page which indicates all milestones.
They don't even start construction till 2Q 2014 and the first train will not go in service till 2018. The website is freeportlng with the usual suffix. There is NO liquifaction capacity anywhere in the lower 48 yet. Cheniere will be in operation before Freeport but even they are a couple of years away.
The text you quote above is about approval to export additional volumes than they already have permit to export, not above what they are currently exporting (which is zero). They had permit to export a certain volume and they later got a permit to export higher volume. That's what the announcement was about. It didn't imply they were already doing the exporting just that they got an increased permit.
false alarm...they are all back. weird, earlier today all the low volume boards were unavailable wheile the busier ones were fine.
"I don't know if Liza is playing options in UNG"
I certainly don't. I don't know where he got that idea. I don't have any financial interest in UNG or any commodity index.
It just got an export permit but there are no exports happening yet. They have to convert the facility to support exports by building liquifaction units. That will take years. Cheniere is furthest along but een they will be another couple of years at the earliest before they can actually start exports. Getting the permit is just the first step, the long construction comes next. An import facility has re-gasification capability but not the reverse (liquifaction) which is required for export. Freeport will be at least 2016 (I think, maybe later) before they have the infrastructure built for export. There is NO LNG export capability from the lower 48 states at present. The only exports from the US at all are small amounts by pipeline to Mexico, and a tiny LNG station in Kenai, Alaska which is being closed and which only ever exported local gas from the Cook Inlet local area as there were no pilelines to bring gas from anywhere else to it.
You are totally forgetting imports and exports and other factors.
"I don't know about oil inventory"
That's pretty clear, however it hasn't prevented you making a fool of yourself spamming the boards for the last week, like nothing like a winter storm has ever happened in human history before. You sound totally desperate.
You are making yourself look ridiculous.
Do you think there were never winter storms before?
What was the lasting impact on oil prices, as a result?
Not aware of any? I thought so.
And what about the well shut ins that many producers are reporting.
The lower production won't result in a potential bigger inventory draw?
You are sounding totally desperate, like you need a huge price drop and fast to aoid margin call or something.
Right, and we never had cold in previous winters?
Did the bottom drop out of the oil market then?
How about putting your brain in gear instead of insulting others.
As has been pointed out, a lot of producers are reporting well shut ins due to severe weather, so there is equal chance that the weather is resulting in a bigger draw. I don't know what the net effect of lower production and possible lower demand will be, so I'm not spamming the boards about it like you. But whatever the impact, it is temporary, happens most winters and is not important in the big picture. Just shows how desperate you are that you attach so much importance to something that happens most years (cold weather) with no lasting impact.
"Oklahoma-based Laredo Petroleum also said that weather conditions "continue to materially impact operations".
"Laredo’s operations were impacted by widespread power outages, reduced access to production and drilling facilities, curtailed trucking services as well as drilling and completion delays," the company said on Thursday.
Quarterly production will be below guidance, but Laredo was not yet able to give an estimate about how much production would be affected. It said more than 50% of the company's wells remain shut-in, while "production of many operating wells has been curtailed due to facilities constraints".
"Assessing the impact of the storm could take several weeks as the bulk of Laredo’s operations are in rural, less populated areas that offer operational advantages but are among the last to have electrical service restored," it said in a statement. "
"Operators in the Permian continued to disclose production and development stoppages caused by severe winter weather in West Texas last week, as the region faces another few days of frigid temperatures.
Mississippi-based Callon Petroleum was the latest company to report operational impacts from the weather. Callon said it experienced about five days of production downtime last week at its key producing fields last week due to electricity outages.
"In addition, near-term production levels may be impacted by an extended curtailment of trucking capacity used for offtake and the effects of another storm currently in the Permian basin," it said in a statement. "
Funny, how some people call others stupid and then follow with a statement proving immediately they have no idea what they are talking about.
"Permian operators Pioneer Natural Resources, Energen Resources, and smaller operators Laredo Petroleum and Legacy Resources have all reported impacts from Cleon, although currently not quantified, to their Q4 production.
Pioneer, echoing some of the other companies, said the severe weather “significantly” affected its production and drilling operations. These impacts were mainly felt in three operations: the Spraberry/Wolfcamp horizons in the Permian, South Texas’ Eagle Ford Shale and North Texas Barnett Shale combo plays. The company’s Spraberry/Wolfcamp operation, in the eastern Permian, “has been especially hard hit as heavy icing and low temperatures have resulted in extensive power outages, facilities freeze-ups, trucking curtailments and limited access to production and drilling facilities,” Pioneer said in a November 27 press release.
The company said an “extensive” recovery period is expected. Both it and Energen claim it will take a few weeks to determine the full impact of the storms, and the smaller operators suggested likewise."
Current AECO (alberta) NG price is below $4. Hardly 'through the roof'.
"and LNG will be $4.50+"
and there is no North American LNG for several years so wonder how we will have a quote for it in Janauary.
So long as the muggers don't take too much, we shouldn't worry.
What about the costs to the partnerships of the legal defense and the resulting delays to the merger timelines? We also shouldn't care about that?
I do still have my position, however feel all these new structure trusts (the SD ones, CHKR, ECT) are a #$%$ shoot even when the price appears low. Expectations keep getting worse so what seems cheap now may not seem so later. PER looks like the best of the five though.