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United States Oil ETF Message Board

lizahuang54321 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 12, 2014 6:15 PM Member since: Mar 20, 2010
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  • lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Nov 12, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    She is correct. You are revealing your ignorance of what a trust is.
    ROYT, as a trust, is not managed. There are no employees, no management.
    Yes, the assets are owned and operated by PCEC, but that is a separate company and their interests do not necessarily align with those of the trust and its unitholders.
    Trusts are not managed - entirely true.

  • Reply to

    Question for the board on ECT

    by justwanttosendamessage Nov 7, 2014 1:39 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Nov 9, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Wow, it's stunning that people would put so much money into something without doing any research as to what they are buying.ECT is not a company, it is a trust and there will never been any further drilling. So the 'dividends' (actually not dividends) will continue to trend downwards due to production continually dropping. And the share (unit) price will trend towards zero over time. The only question is whether and by how much the remaining payouts over the life of the trust exceed the purchase price of units. It is essentially a gamble. Did this person really invest $150,000 without knowing this? Would the same person by a new TV without putting more research than he did for this $150,000 investment? Would he do more research when trying a new brand of breakfast cereal for $3?

    P.S. Variation in the price of NG can make the decline in 'dividends' faster or slower (although Marcellus gas prices are much lower than posted Henry Hub benchmark price). However with production trending ever lower (due to no further drilling activity) the dividend trend will be continually down. The question is how long will the tail be. Note there will be no hedging.

  • Reply to

    Asking the RIGHT questions..

    by evetsnibur Oct 23, 2014 3:06 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Oct 30, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    Really no need to call anyone if you either read the SEC filings or had the slightest idea of the rules governing US royalty trusts. There can be no further hedging.

  • Reply to

    Asking the RIGHT questions..

    by evetsnibur Oct 23, 2014 3:06 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Oct 30, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    Why do so many people invest real money without having the slightest idea what they are investing in?
    VOC is not an oil 'company'.
    It is a trust.
    Trusts are not allowed to add hedges after the ones in place at IPO expire.
    There will never be any new hedges.
    That is the same for all US royalty trusts.
    They have hedges in place at trust formation. Those initial hedges expire after a couple of years and there will never be any hedges after that.
    So from here on VOC is completely exposed to oil prices (good or bad).

  • Reply to

    Anyone know what's going on here?

    by bishopdali Sep 19, 2014 4:39 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Sep 20, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    The big runup was in the last hour before options expiration.
    It's pretty clearly an options expiration effect (albeit an unusually large one).
    In these cases, the late move is mostly reversed on the following Monday morning.
    There was no news on Friday that I am aware of and that being options expiration day
    is pretty clearly the reason, imo. I expect drop back to low 60s on Monday morning.

  • yesterday was clearly a reverse flash crash, a fat finger trade, a mistake, a good opportunity to sell.
    People here are getting excited about reinstatement of the distribution. In my opinion, that reinstatement will be the trigger for another significant leg down in price. Many people are probably not paying attention and assuming the distribution will be reinstated at the same level. We know that will not be the case. An optimistic guess for the new distribution could be 10c per quarter. Perhaps more realistic is 7.5c per quarter. Once that is known to everyone, EROC will be again be priced on yield and at the high end of the E&P yields. That is where is it being priced today but on the old distribution level. Assuming a 30c annual distribution, and assuming a 13% yield gives a unit price of less than $2.50. Normally I would have used this hiatus in distributions to add to a position (existing position has zero cost basis), however in this case I would not buy any until after the distribution reinstatement. It is very possible and likely for the price to be below $3 after that announcement.

  • Reply to

    Stifel downgrade

    by m20m75ph Sep 9, 2014 9:57 AM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Sep 9, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    or just perhaps, don't you think that the upgrade and subsequent downgrade were because the price first dropped to 9.60 (making it a buy by their evaluation) and subsequently rose by more than 21% in just over a month to 11.70 (now making it a hold)? Really, do you think they make their recommendations without any regard to price whatsoever? If it already hit their price target, what else should they do but downgrade it back to hold?

  • Reply to

    Sanchez Production Partners

    by rrb1981 Aug 28, 2014 8:10 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Aug 28, 2014 8:53 PM Flag

    What fun. I still have my position. The last action I took was 1-2 years ago when I sold for the tax loss and 31 days later re-established my position with a new basis of around $1.50. At the time I couldn't make up my mind whether I wanted to keep it, so I took the default action of capturing the tax loss but re-establishing my position and wait and see what comes. It's taken long enough, but changes are finally happening.

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