Well Saudi Arabia is far better equipped to deal with low oil prices than Iran. It would be more likely for Saudi to flood the market in order to financially destroy Iran and in fact they have done precisely that before.
As I said, Iran is dependent on oil revenue and prices anywhere close to that (even much higher) would result in such chaos that it would mean the end of the regime. And we know they are not going to risk that. It's true that there could be significant extra oil on the market IF Iraq security got under control, IF Iran is serious about the concessions, IF Libya also can get their house in order. Those are all very big IFs and I'm not holding my breath on any of them. But if they all worked out, yes, there could be serious pressure on oil prices. But then that pressure would result in reduced US and other expensive production which would tend to put support back under the prices. None of us can predict this, so as you say we will have to wait and see.
The other side of your scenario is a hot middle east war between Saudi and Iran or between Sunni and Shi-ites. That could result in $300 oil although the US would be in a much better position than say Europe given its own increased production.
Maybe not with you. But I have plenty of credibility. Look around the boards and see people asking my opinion everywhere. So many threads (not started by me) with 'Liza' in the subject line due to people asking me questions. Whether I deserve the attention or not is a separate question but it's not in dispute that I have a lot of credibility on the yahoo boards.
Or see my post today on the InvestorVillage MLP board. A few hours later and it already has 19 recommendations. A lot of people listening to me.
And a lot of posts from people thanking me for having saved them money when they took my advice (not that I try to give advice, but people listen to my comments and take action based on them, even though I didn't specifically advise them to do anything).
The only threads I see about walrat are ones complaining how you abuse message boards and are totally clueless on just about everything.
"She didn't call the rise in either Aldw or Nti."
That's because I don't do price predictions.
Again, I invest for cash flow, not for capital gains (how many times have I explained this?), so I don't try to predict future prices since I don't have a sell point in mind.
As for NTI, the price rise started with the announcement of the WNR buyout of the GP. Nobody saw that coming. But I was on the NTI board that night posting how it was positive and a game changer for NTI, while the rest of the board was still posting "what does this mean for NTI?". So you could say I was right about the NTI rise.
I don't mix the two. Some securities I hold units and other I sell the puts. The two sets of securities do not overlap (almost never). These trusts I bought units.
"I think ROYT may rehedge around $110"
Not possible. US trusts are not allowed to re-hedge.
Once the existing hedges expire, there will be no further hedges for the life of the trust.
There are always extenuating circumstances.
You suggesting that extenuating circumstances are going to stop now (especially when we are talking about E&Ps which are the MLPs the most prone to extenuating circumstances)?
The fact is that volatility hasn't decreased at any of the ones which transitioned to monthly so far.
And what about the Canadian producers (ex-trusts) most of which pay monthly? There hasn't been a lack of volatility in those either.
True, you can time the sale to optimize your income, however on the average one will lose a month worth of distribution over your lifetime holding.
Maybe no big deal in the big picture, especially if you have no plan to sell, but then why not do what VNR did and avoid disadvantaging anyone? VNR avoided this by not shifting the record dates back by a month even though it meant paying the equivalent of 13 month's distributions in the transition year. Thus far, VNR has been the only one to do that.
So we also believe Iraqi propaganda too then?
Iraq is producing all they can right now.
No doubt, if the country was peaceful they could improve their infrastructure produce more.
But the civil war there is getting worse, not better.
If Iran could really push oil prices down to $20, the resulting unrest would result in the fall of the regime. You think they will allow that?
We can all read about the internal OPEC in-fighting, but it helps to keep your head on when evaluating it.
You can take your gains or losses with a grain of salt too, if you like. I explained to you why refinery stocks were all down sharply today. Apparently you would prefer to remain in the dark as to the reasons.
What did I say about ALDW? My comments were not directed at any particular refinery company.
It's not a coincidence that all the refiners were down sharply today, the day after Transcanada announced the start of operations for that pipeline.
"How does a 700,000 barrel out-flow offset millions coming from Bakken and other Shale plays."
Duh, this is not the only pipeline out of Cushing. It is an incremental 700k/day soon to be followed by further increased takeaway capacity. Yes, look for Cushing inventories to resume dropping as they did for 3-4 months continuously until the last 1-2 months where they rebounded a bit.
As for Brent, I didn't say it would go down sharply, although that is possible. A spread can be narrowed from either end, you know.
yes, we get that you understand the word 'fuel'.
Try now to figure out the word 'source'.
"Where does hydrogen come from?
Hydrogen, the universe’s most common element, does not occur in a naturally free state. It is bonded to other elements. For this energy carrier to be used as a fuel, it has to be produced. This can be done in many ways. The most commonly used method is reforming hydrocarbons, like natural gas, propane, methanol butane or propane. It can be produced from sustainable sources of methane such as biomass or land-fill gas. It can also be obtained by electrolysis, breaking apart water, or it can be extracted from carbon-free compounds, such as ammonia or boron compounds. Renewable energy sources, like wind, solar, geothermal and hydroelectric power, can all be used to produce hydrogen.
Hydrogen can be produced in dedicated plants and transported, or it can be produced in small point-of-use units. In production processes which generate hydrogen as a by-product, fuel cell technology is used to generate electricity and heat."
now that you have demonstrated understanding of the word 'fuel', try to work on the word 'source' and see if you can get an understanding of that word.
according to guidance, there will be zero distribution growth through Q4 2014. At least 5 quarters of no increase. I suspect it has further to fall if it is transitioning from a high growth to zero growth MLP.
Trying to help you...going around insulting people is not the way to get answers to your questions. Now this is another board where everyone will have you on ignore. You'll need to try again somewhere else.
I have more than thoughts as the company has told us precisely when and how much.
Check the company press releases - you will likely like what you find.
Or shall I do the work for you?
3c/qtr increases starting Q1 2014 through 2015.
Of course, I'm not saying you should blindly believe every article written by a short (or long). But to dismiss a reasoned analysis based on the disclosure does yourself a disservice. You can read the analysis and decide for yourself whether it has merit. In this case, is there anything in particular you don't agree with besides the fact that the author may have the courage of his convictions to put his money where his mouth is? Seriously, if the author believes his analysis, what would you expect him to do? Be long? Clearly not. Have no position? Why not if he believes what he wrote? It only makes sense for him to be short if he believes his own analysis.