Haven't really paid attention because like the silly posts about no traffic, it is necessarily a temporary effect. But, yes, there can be major interruptions to production during severe cold weather and I believe there have been warnings from some producers already. As mentioned, I don't really pay much attention to short term issues like this unless it impacts companies I actually own positions in.
So maybe we should thank the silly bashers who keep posting about the price about to drop. Without them the EPD board might be gone too.
haven't seen any announcement but it appears that message boards will less than some threshold of posting activity are being shut down. I can access all the more active ones but get an error message for those boards which have not been so active. Looks like even PAA and SXL have lost their message boards.
"Have had nothing but good results so I never considered the points you are bringing up"
The price dropped almost 65% over 1 year in 2011-2012, yet you say there have been "nothing but good results". Again, wonder what planet you have been living on.
As for the recent guidance, clearly poor performance at Tres Palacios NG storage assets must be seriously weighing on the overall performance.
Including distributions the return on this has been about 40% over 2 1/2 years (I don't own it, but that's what it would be). Nothing special but your comments are just foolishness.
The price is in the same trading range it has been in for the past 2 years and up about 20% from the IPO two and a half years ago. In addition during that period it has also paid $45.. per unit in distributions meaning close to 40% return since IPO. Nothing to write home about, I agree, but hardly the disaster your lamb chops comments imply. I suppose all your investments are making far more than 40% return in 2 1/2 years?
The funny thing is that even the MLPs you say are so awful are probably delivering better return than the investments you do own, if there are any. And the Alerian index as a whole (50 MLPs) is up 5-fold over the last 5 years.
They'd be some savings due to a simpler corporate structure and the market also tends to prefer a simpler structure. I think they have already implied the long term plan would be to combine the LPs although not given any indication it is imminent. In the same way, the ETE has made clear that it plans to simplify the complicated structure there by combining RGP and ETP at some point.
"It would be unseemly for Kinder Morgan to merge the two MLPs, and in the process announce that EPB unit holders will suffer a reduction in current distributions, and KMP holders suffer no reduction in distributions, or get an increase."
Don't know about that. It happens all the time. Most recently in the RGP acquision of PVR, PVR holders suffer a decrease in distributions, in the NRGM acquisition of CMLP, CMLP holders suffered a decrease in distributions. They usually have some fancy rhetoric to explain why it's a good thing (improved growth rates, bigger and stronger company, etc).
As for your last paragraph, nobody suggested that KMI is going to deliberately sabotage EPB. However it is the case that some assets which EPB would have got from EP are now going to KMP instead and you could also argue that KMP are getting the 'better' assets. It's also true that a slowing or stalled distribution at EPB while KMP continues to grow distributions makes the conditions more favorable for KMP when the merger is eventually done (KMP price will have risen by more than EPB in the meantime so the exchange ratio will be that much worse for EPB holders)
So you could say, there is no 'sabotage' but KMP is the 'preferred' Kinder Morgan LP and it is getting better treatment than its red headed stepsister EPB.
"as to the eventual merger, while KMI controls the process, there will be a conflicts committee to approve the transaction"
yes, of course, nobody was suggesting that EPB unit holders will get scrwed, but neither will they get a windfall. There will likely be just a small (say 5% premium) to market price (at the time of merger), maybe increased by a fraction to appease the usual lawsuits.
"Now that ELB is going to slow or even stall the rate of increase in dividends, this can be seen as a long-term POSITIVE"
absolutely STUPID comment.
Also, your implications of the distribution being 100% safe and sustainable are also incorrect (not that I am suggesting any cut is in the offing).
It's been a zombie for 5 years or so now. I'm not holding my breath for that to change, despite a few mildly positive developments. I would suggest to look elsewhere.
" I can see so far is that CPNO was acquired by KMP...I wonder if that could be a potential for BWP?"
CPNO was an LLC (no general partner). BWP is controlled by Loews. Unless Loews want to sell (of which there has never been any indication) BWP can't be acquired.
you've not seen the reports of well head freeze-offs then?
Nor seen the warnings from some producers like PXD relating to their production being impacted by severe weather conditions?
Oh no, those people are going to have to dispose of their cars and will never drive again.
This winter storm is going to mean the end of economic activity as we know it in the US. FOREVER!
P.S. I'm not completely anti-coal. I still have some KOL in my IRA, along with other commodity related funds, but to be so overweight in it for years like you have been has simply been a disaster.
If you want a commodity which has been beaten down for years and is probably closer to a rebound than either coal or gold, perhaps uranium would be a better choice.? Just an idea...I do have some URA in that same IRA account and I expect to recoup my losses on URA faster than KOL (although don't have actual losses in KOL since it was purchased at the lows in 2008 and a year or so ago).
"That's great news to US coal producers"
According to you, everything is great news for coal producers, even though their stock prices continue to languish and we keep hearing news of major utilities planning to scrap additional coal fired electricity generating plants.
It's been years now that you've been on the 'massively long coal" wagon and apart from huge losses (including bankrupties of Patriot, soon to be followed by JRCC) you continue to suffer huge opportunity loss. In the same time you've been continuing losses on coal, I've probably doubled or tripled my portfolio value (in MLPs). The Alerian MLP index is up about 5-fold over 5 years, and up from 100 to 1500 in a little over 15 years.
It's time to be a man and admit you were wrong on the coal thing. In investing, being years early with a call is no different than being wrong. If you admit it and move on, there is a chance to start re-couping some of your losses and rebuiding your wealth.
UNG? Probably not. I have lots of investments in NG producers and infrastructure companies but these futures based ETF's make terrible investments. Just look at a long term chart to remove any doubt. I held UNG for a few months in 2008 when NG was exploding but never since then.
Apart from that, my comment above was neutral to UNG. I said that the price spike in Boston means nothing to UNG, which should be obvious because UNG is based on the price at Henry Hub, not at the price in Boston. The North East hubs have always have temporary price spikes during cold spells. That can hardly be interpreted as an 'attack' on UNG, any more than saying the price of apples in China has no impact on UNG. It is simply irrelevant to it.
He's a sad, lonely person. The good thing is that he sticks to only a few boards so it's easy to avoid him by going elsewhere. I mostly gave up on the NTI board since he turned it into his soap box.
The $300k was turned into $2 million and produces currently 15% annual cash return (exclusing gain in portfolio value). If you listened to my explanations you'd be able to replicate that kind of performance. But you're afraid to try things outside your comfort zone, of course. Which makes you...a loser. Sorry, but there's no other word for it.
Is there anyone around that DOESN"T consider craig a pathetic loser? One who has nothing better to do on weekends and holidays than respond to EVERY thread on the message boards with no purpose other than to contradict, even on subjects he admits he has no understanding of. His usual reasoning: if Craig doesn't understand it or has never heard of it, then it can't be possible.
"There is no law that forbids exporting oil. "
As usual, you are wrong. You can google the following for further discussion:
"The Case for Allowing U.S. Crude Oil Exports
I do expect that in the next few years the pressure will be overwhelming to overturn that 1970s ban. You could make the same argument about wheat, corn, and every other commodity the US produces and exports, including natural gas for which the same arguments were made and for which export permits are not being granted. It doesn't benefit the US to have a glut of oil such that producers can't make money and so stop investing in new production.
"Crestwood midstream as they say their business is not affected by underlying commodity prices"
There are many midstream and pipeline companies (n addition to and probably much better than Crestwood) which have fee based contracts and therefore not so much impacted by commodity prices.
I don't know if you can make a generalization about refiners...if the oil input costs go down but the refined product prices go down by a similar amount then their margins remain the same. In any case, refiners are going to be sensitive to commodity prices, for better or worse.
As for oil going to $80, it's possible but I wouldn't count on it.