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Access Midstream Partners, L.P. Message Board

lizahuang54321 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 16, 2014 12:25 PM Member since: Mar 20, 2010
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  • yesterday was clearly a reverse flash crash, a fat finger trade, a mistake, a good opportunity to sell.
    People here are getting excited about reinstatement of the distribution. In my opinion, that reinstatement will be the trigger for another significant leg down in price. Many people are probably not paying attention and assuming the distribution will be reinstated at the same level. We know that will not be the case. An optimistic guess for the new distribution could be 10c per quarter. Perhaps more realistic is 7.5c per quarter. Once that is known to everyone, EROC will be again be priced on yield and at the high end of the E&P yields. That is where is it being priced today but on the old distribution level. Assuming a 30c annual distribution, and assuming a 13% yield gives a unit price of less than $2.50. Normally I would have used this hiatus in distributions to add to a position (existing position has zero cost basis), however in this case I would not buy any until after the distribution reinstatement. It is very possible and likely for the price to be below $3 after that announcement.

  • Reply to

    Stifel downgrade

    by m20m75ph Sep 9, 2014 9:57 AM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Sep 9, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    or just perhaps, don't you think that the upgrade and subsequent downgrade were because the price first dropped to 9.60 (making it a buy by their evaluation) and subsequently rose by more than 21% in just over a month to 11.70 (now making it a hold)? Really, do you think they make their recommendations without any regard to price whatsoever? If it already hit their price target, what else should they do but downgrade it back to hold?

  • Reply to

    Sanchez Production Partners

    by rrb1981 Aug 28, 2014 8:10 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Aug 28, 2014 8:53 PM Flag

    What fun. I still have my position. The last action I took was 1-2 years ago when I sold for the tax loss and 31 days later re-established my position with a new basis of around $1.50. At the time I couldn't make up my mind whether I wanted to keep it, so I took the default action of capturing the tax loss but re-establishing my position and wait and see what comes. It's taken long enough, but changes are finally happening.

  • lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Aug 6, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    "Hopefully, the company leadership is working other angles and will announce alternative revenue streams"

    Umm, it appears you have not the slightest idea what a trust is. Suggest a little due diligence on what you are holding here.

  • Reply to

    It Seems To Me That Manaagement Should Speak Up

    by sandra888us Jul 17, 2014 3:05 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jul 17, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    what management? this is a trust not a company.
    There is no management, no employees at all.

  • Reply to

    GNI being converted to a REIT of sorts

    by williamjohnsonfamily Jun 28, 2014 3:40 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jul 5, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    of course you can't find it as you just made it up.
    anyone who knows anything about what a trust is knows that would not be possible.
    The trust is clear on their website that the trust is terminating in less than a year.

  • Reply to

    Stock will only payout $35 in future dividends

    by yurivelarde Jun 18, 2014 9:39 AM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jul 4, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    distributions going to zero is not the same as revenues being low.
    The point is that the trust would still be making similar (or even higher) revenues compared to today but those revenues would be consumed by the higher chargeable costs leaving nothing left to pay as distributions.
    So, the trust continues, makes good revenues but pays no distributions.
    This will happen at some point, the only uncertainty is what year it begins.

  • Reply to

    Stock will only payout $35 in future dividends

    by yurivelarde Jun 18, 2014 9:39 AM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jun 18, 2014 10:52 PM Flag

    OK, well I certainly don't agree with those oil price projections which is why my guesstimate differs from your model. But we are agreed that the current price is well overvalued in relation to future distributions.

  • Reply to

    FELP priced tonight

    by jrad52 Jun 17, 2014 8:45 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jun 18, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    like I said right at the close there was a spike down to 18.75 (after having been tied to 19 for most of the last hour), however the closing print shows as 19. I did pick up some at 19, however would not be surprised if it continues to drift a bit lower in coming days. I only took a starter position so plenty of room to add in case the price gets more attractive. At least my yield is above 7% which sounds psychologically better than a yield with a 6 handle on it.

    Today's other MLP IPO was shocking. How is a variable distribution E&P MLP (VNOM) worth a 3.5% yield?

  • Reply to

    Stock will only payout $35 in future dividends

    by yurivelarde Jun 18, 2014 9:39 AM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jun 18, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    Not sure about your math (I expect the trust will pay more than that), however the chargeable costs issue is real and known by anyone who bothers to look at the trust document. Of course, most here prefer to invest blind and would rather buy without knowing what they are buying than to spend an hour doing research. I have pointed out the costs escalation (written into the trust terms) for several years now. Yes, starting in 2017-18 timeframe there will be a sharp drop in distributions with that drop extending each year. Depending on oil prices in that timeframe, trust distributions could indeed go to zero decades before the trust terminates. Of course that will make the trust units almost worthless as units in a declining trust that doesn't pay distributions are inherently of no value.

    Again, I'm not sure on your math. I haven't constructed a model but I would guesstimate remaining distributions more like in the $50 range (could even pay the $35 before the escalation in costs kicks in) which is still half the current unit price, so I am not disputing your overall conclusion.

  • Reply to

    ** $7.50 ++ **

    by www8ll Jun 18, 2014 10:57 AM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jun 18, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    It was also a $3 'stock' about 18 months ago (I know because I bought it below $3 at end of 2012).
    What changed since then?
    Yes, NG prices went up a bit but DOM continues to abandon wells and forecast a termination date of 4-5 years out. And since then they also paid out a year and a half worth of distributions which means the trust is worth less now than it was then, not more.
    Suggest you estimate 4 years or so of distributions to get an idea what this might be worth. Hint: still much less than the current price.
    Take a lesson from WHX and GNI if you don't want to lose money.

  • Reply to

    ** write the S.E.C. **

    by bbx3ww Jun 18, 2014 12:36 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jun 18, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    I guess you think the trust should also be barred from publishing annual reports and issuing press releases since that is where the article's information came from. The trust has been telling you this for years now if you bothered to pay attention to your investments.

  • Reply to

    FELP priced tonight

    by jrad52 Jun 17, 2014 8:45 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jun 18, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    considering taking a starter position too but waiting till the end of the day to decide. Looks like some support around $19 however I have observed that often those support lines like that break down shortly before the close. Given the weak opening trading, I suspect a further drop into the close. Where it goes tomorrow, I am not guessing.

  • Reply to

    FELP priced tonight

    by jrad52 Jun 17, 2014 8:45 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jun 18, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    down to a little over 19 in the first hour of trading and still falling.
    So at what price is it a buy?

    The other MLP IPO (VNOM) today is going crazy on the upside so weakness in FELP is specific not market related.

  • Reply to

    Why the 14% drop today??

    by scambuuster Jun 17, 2014 4:11 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jun 18, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Anyone could have seen this coming. It was grossly overvalued as I have written before and as the SA today pointed out. Also DOM has done this in the past. A couple of years ago it ran up to almost 20 before plunging back down to 10. The runup past $10 made no sense at all and it was clear it would reverse. Each time it does this I make some money via options.

  • lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jun 18, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    The first step in investing is to get your tickers correct. Otherwise you end up buying Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) when you wanted Apple (AAPL). In this case the target was for D not for DOM. Yes, they both have Dominion in the name.

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