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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

lizahuang54321 7 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Mar 20, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Asking the RIGHT questions..

    by evetsnibur Oct 23, 2014 3:06 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 23 hours ago Flag

    Really no need to call anyone if you either read the SEC filings or had the slightest idea of the rules governing US royalty trusts. There can be no further hedging.

  • Reply to

    Asking the RIGHT questions..

    by evetsnibur Oct 23, 2014 3:06 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 23 hours ago Flag

    Why do so many people invest real money without having the slightest idea what they are investing in?
    VOC is not an oil 'company'.
    It is a trust.
    Trusts are not allowed to add hedges after the ones in place at IPO expire.
    There will never be any new hedges.
    That is the same for all US royalty trusts.
    They have hedges in place at trust formation. Those initial hedges expire after a couple of years and there will never be any hedges after that.
    So from here on VOC is completely exposed to oil prices (good or bad).

  • Reply to

    Anyone know what's going on here?

    by bishopdali Sep 19, 2014 4:39 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Sep 20, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    The big runup was in the last hour before options expiration.
    It's pretty clearly an options expiration effect (albeit an unusually large one).
    In these cases, the late move is mostly reversed on the following Monday morning.
    There was no news on Friday that I am aware of and that being options expiration day
    is pretty clearly the reason, imo. I expect drop back to low 60s on Monday morning.

  • yesterday was clearly a reverse flash crash, a fat finger trade, a mistake, a good opportunity to sell.
    People here are getting excited about reinstatement of the distribution. In my opinion, that reinstatement will be the trigger for another significant leg down in price. Many people are probably not paying attention and assuming the distribution will be reinstated at the same level. We know that will not be the case. An optimistic guess for the new distribution could be 10c per quarter. Perhaps more realistic is 7.5c per quarter. Once that is known to everyone, EROC will be again be priced on yield and at the high end of the E&P yields. That is where is it being priced today but on the old distribution level. Assuming a 30c annual distribution, and assuming a 13% yield gives a unit price of less than $2.50. Normally I would have used this hiatus in distributions to add to a position (existing position has zero cost basis), however in this case I would not buy any until after the distribution reinstatement. It is very possible and likely for the price to be below $3 after that announcement.

  • Reply to

    Stifel downgrade

    by m20m75ph Sep 9, 2014 9:57 AM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Sep 9, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    or just perhaps, don't you think that the upgrade and subsequent downgrade were because the price first dropped to 9.60 (making it a buy by their evaluation) and subsequently rose by more than 21% in just over a month to 11.70 (now making it a hold)? Really, do you think they make their recommendations without any regard to price whatsoever? If it already hit their price target, what else should they do but downgrade it back to hold?

  • Reply to

    Sanchez Production Partners

    by rrb1981 Aug 28, 2014 8:10 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Aug 28, 2014 8:53 PM Flag

    What fun. I still have my position. The last action I took was 1-2 years ago when I sold for the tax loss and 31 days later re-established my position with a new basis of around $1.50. At the time I couldn't make up my mind whether I wanted to keep it, so I took the default action of capturing the tax loss but re-establishing my position and wait and see what comes. It's taken long enough, but changes are finally happening.

  • lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Aug 6, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    "Hopefully, the company leadership is working other angles and will announce alternative revenue streams"

    Umm, it appears you have not the slightest idea what a trust is. Suggest a little due diligence on what you are holding here.

ETP
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