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Enerplus Corporation Message Board

lizahuang54321 8 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Mar 20, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Anyone know what's going on here?

    by bishopdali Sep 19, 2014 4:39 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 11 hours ago Flag

    The big runup was in the last hour before options expiration.
    It's pretty clearly an options expiration effect (albeit an unusually large one).
    In these cases, the late move is mostly reversed on the following Monday morning.
    There was no news on Friday that I am aware of and that being options expiration day
    is pretty clearly the reason, imo. I expect drop back to low 60s on Monday morning.

  • yesterday was clearly a reverse flash crash, a fat finger trade, a mistake, a good opportunity to sell.
    People here are getting excited about reinstatement of the distribution. In my opinion, that reinstatement will be the trigger for another significant leg down in price. Many people are probably not paying attention and assuming the distribution will be reinstated at the same level. We know that will not be the case. An optimistic guess for the new distribution could be 10c per quarter. Perhaps more realistic is 7.5c per quarter. Once that is known to everyone, EROC will be again be priced on yield and at the high end of the E&P yields. That is where is it being priced today but on the old distribution level. Assuming a 30c annual distribution, and assuming a 13% yield gives a unit price of less than $2.50. Normally I would have used this hiatus in distributions to add to a position (existing position has zero cost basis), however in this case I would not buy any until after the distribution reinstatement. It is very possible and likely for the price to be below $3 after that announcement.

  • Reply to

    Stifel downgrade

    by m20m75ph Sep 9, 2014 9:57 AM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Sep 9, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    or just perhaps, don't you think that the upgrade and subsequent downgrade were because the price first dropped to 9.60 (making it a buy by their evaluation) and subsequently rose by more than 21% in just over a month to 11.70 (now making it a hold)? Really, do you think they make their recommendations without any regard to price whatsoever? If it already hit their price target, what else should they do but downgrade it back to hold?

  • Reply to

    Sanchez Production Partners

    by rrb1981 Aug 28, 2014 8:10 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Aug 28, 2014 8:53 PM Flag

    What fun. I still have my position. The last action I took was 1-2 years ago when I sold for the tax loss and 31 days later re-established my position with a new basis of around $1.50. At the time I couldn't make up my mind whether I wanted to keep it, so I took the default action of capturing the tax loss but re-establishing my position and wait and see what comes. It's taken long enough, but changes are finally happening.

  • lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Aug 6, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    "Hopefully, the company leadership is working other angles and will announce alternative revenue streams"

    Umm, it appears you have not the slightest idea what a trust is. Suggest a little due diligence on what you are holding here.

  • Reply to

    It Seems To Me That Manaagement Should Speak Up

    by sandra888us Jul 17, 2014 3:05 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jul 17, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    what management? this is a trust not a company.
    There is no management, no employees at all.

  • Reply to

    GNI being converted to a REIT of sorts

    by williamjohnsonfamily Jun 28, 2014 3:40 PM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jul 5, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    of course you can't find it as you just made it up.
    anyone who knows anything about what a trust is knows that would not be possible.
    The trust is clear on their website that the trust is terminating in less than a year.

  • Reply to

    Stock will only payout $35 in future dividends

    by yurivelarde Jun 18, 2014 9:39 AM
    lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Jul 4, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    distributions going to zero is not the same as revenues being low.
    The point is that the trust would still be making similar (or even higher) revenues compared to today but those revenues would be consumed by the higher chargeable costs leaving nothing left to pay as distributions.
    So, the trust continues, makes good revenues but pays no distributions.
    This will happen at some point, the only uncertainty is what year it begins.

ERF
18.60-0.82(-4.22%)Sep 19 4:05 PMEDT

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