Software HOLDRS Message Board

interesting article ONP ByEric Jackson, RealMoney Contributor , On Thursday April 1, 2010 linked to Yahoo headlines:

My top long pick of all the companies I met with is Orient PaperNYSE" PRIMARY="NO"/> which trades on the New York Stock Exchange. The company sells fine writing paper and corrugated paper for boxes, and three weeks ago it started production of paper for digital photographs. Earlier this week, Orient Paper released its full-year 2009 numbers. Revenue grew 57% to $102 million for the year and 98% for the fourth quarter to $31 million.

Investors did not like the decrease in gross margins from 22% to 18% in the recent quarter and the increase in SG&A expenses by over $1 million from last year. However, the margins were affected by increased coal costs in the fourth quarter that were due to the colder winter near Beijing. The company uplisted to the NYSE in December and was required to take on more consultant costs in preparing for that. It also announced yesterday that it was selling 3 million shares at $8.25, taking the stock down 13%. My firm was a big buyer on the news, and ONP is now one of our top long positions.

I believe that the stock is now at a low point and will rise significantly in the year ahead. A doubling in the stock price from here in the next year seems very achievable. A better return than that over that time period is not unreasonable. The downside risk appears to be very low.

I agree. I just bought call options. Forward outlook is profitable. Better if they modify their credit policy on collections.

oops! what if market corrects and it goes down even further? Might wanta protect it with some put options.

One would think so. They've never misled the media before !

Yeah! All the fundamentals point toward a 275% rally. Right. Heard that first at $19, then again at $14 (when single digit predictions were crazy). Then again at $9. Stock might spike as a trade (if you can time it) but Citi will never be a good investment again.

I'm a first time shareholder two days ago. Glad I did. Looks like one of the very few places left to go in this market. Generic pharma and health care government stimulus....dont have to be sherlock holmes!

Steel demand fell off a cliff (auto manufaturing down 60% !). Coking coal demand (for steel) fell with it. Additionally, pricing power decreased as well. Result will be survival mode going forward.

Of course it will see 50 again. And then it will go to 57. Each month will see higher lows. It's the trend we hope for. Hold it long and forget about it. Day trade the tech sector.

What the Huh!

I think no one will be surprised by a 10% drop in the short term (by weeks end). After that, how could it be anything other than flat at best, for anything less than 2 or 3 more quarters?

Down 10% to mid 17's by weeks end.

I'm not a shareholder, but I watch Intel. Gotta give XLNX a pat on the back for a good job in this impossible market. Dont think they will move drastically unless bad surprises from rest of the sector drag them down. I wouldnt buy right now, but I wouldnt sell either.

That's not exactly what he said. Gasparino said Pandit will announce that the old Citi business model is dead. The new one will resemble the old CitiCorp model.

They dont hold any stock of their own and their advice is all based on hindsight. They are truly poor analysts.

How convenient. What if every company did that? If you cant project two quarters out in the rail business, you don't have a handle on your company!