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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

logantrader1960 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 8, 2014 1:23 PM Member since: Nov 8, 2009
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  • logantrader1960 by logantrader1960 Aug 8, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    Go back and read the Quarterly report and look at what the G/A expenses were for LNCO.
    And as you read further you will note LINE actually pays these expenses, or the majority of them. Now with that being said (and investors read this as well) buyers are realizing that LNCO should realistically be trading hand in hand with LINE. If for nothing else the dividend yield.

    I think of LNCO simply as a holding company for LINE. I also believe most management reports you read will also point out that LNCO is based solely off the performance of LINE. Most know this, but when you realize there are little to no expenses related to LNCO it makes perfect sense for them to trade hand in hand.

    Agree / Disagree?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    2nd Quarter Earnings Report

    by legalbark Aug 7, 2014 7:35 AM
    logantrader1960 logantrader1960 Aug 7, 2014 7:51 AM Flag

    Yeah thumbs Up management!

    I especially liked this clip......

    LINN completed its first operated horizontal well in the basin during the second quarter which targeted the Wolfcamp B interval in Midland County. This well had a 24-hour IP rate of 1,158 Boe/d, 91 percent of which was oil and a 30-day rate of 1,017 Boe/d, 89 percent of which was oil.

    That has to be one of the best 30-day rates I've seen in a while!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SARA - What is a Good Summary?

    by coalpowerstesla Jun 22, 2014 9:17 AM
    logantrader1960 logantrader1960 Jun 23, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    They also have some debt, but the latest well should help tremendously on that issue. Personally I believe right now anyone selling this is making a mistake, or just simply needs the money. The stock is under heavy accumulation right now which is something it hasn't seen for a few years.

    IMO if it plays out right is this should be around $5.00-$7.50 pps in a year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LNCO and taxes (part 2)

    by djk_1954 Jun 17, 2014 11:56 AM
    logantrader1960 logantrader1960 Jun 17, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    You mention in your message " I have for my quarterly estimated income tax payments assumed that they are 100% taxable". We don't know what your income or taxable bracket is. The simple matter of fact is LNCO pays $2.90 a year per share in dividends which would be considered income if you pocket the money.

    Read this from the WSJ 01/10/2013

    The basics: Qualified dividends, as well as capital gains, for individuals in the 25%, 28%, 33% and 35% income-tax brackets will continue to be taxed at 15%. Individuals with more than $400,000 in taxable income—and couples with more than $450,000—will see the rate rise to 20%. (People in the 10% and 15% brackets, as before, will have a zero tax rate on dividends and capital gains.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • logantrader1960 logantrader1960 Jun 17, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Mike a .10c divy would equate to about $1.00 additional increase in pps (LNCO). If they can pull of covering the distribution (LINE) @ 1.1 x and increase it a dime then the pps may rise a little higher. I like the old adage that you have to walk before you run, but a few solid quarters, an increase in dividend and a 1.1 x coverage with a normalization to around a 7.0 % dividend, then you would be looking at $40.00 PPS with the $3.00 Divy.

    Another point as well while we are on the subject. As they acquire new leases and as the price of Oil and Gas increases the hedging is locked in at a higher price. I am not sure on an existing lease if they are hedging the new production at a higher price, but it would be nice to know and maybe someone can elaborate on this subject.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Does the recent rise really surprise investors?

    It certainly doesn't surprise me and is why I loaded up on this @$27.00 and $27.40 as much as I could and within reason of my portfolio. I figure this will run up to about $32.50 give or take a few cents with most days being up and some being down. At $32.50 this will still be paying a 9% Divvy. From there we will need to see what the quarter comes out to and what the remaining fiscal year looks like. I believe if the quarter comes out good and the fiscal year looks good going forward, then it will run to about $36.00 (8% Divvy) by the end of the year. Of course a strong outlook, a few upgrades and a slight possibility of an increase in distribution on LINE's behalf could mean even more possibly up to around $42.00.

    I always believed this management team and never believed the pundits. Remember LINE was one of the only companies that didn't cut their distributions during the hard economic downturn in 2008/2009. They have a plan, they are sticking with it and thankfully have ignored all of the pundits like a REAL management team would do.

    GLTA and the best of the best to the Longs!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cash keeps rolling in!

    by logantrader1960 May 16, 2014 8:18 AM
    logantrader1960 logantrader1960 Jun 12, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    Well here we are again tomorrow for all of you LNCO holders. Grab your coffee, watch the shorts continually get fried open up your account and the cash will be there!

    Just another month, just another dividend and boy were all those pundits completely wrong LOL!

    Best of luck to the longs and Hedge-Eye you can still KMA!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Now extrapulate the rest of the formation

    by logantrader1960 Jun 3, 2014 9:44 AM
    logantrader1960 logantrader1960 Jun 3, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    Just a re-cap from the CC:

    Joe Dancy - LSGI Advisor

    Okay. Let me ask you a – this is a question you guys are actually in my finance textbook for (inaudible). And here is a question for, and it’s sort of 1,000 foot overview. You guys have the third party registered professional engineers put out the reserve reports, the PB10 of your proved reserves.

    You take that number and you subtract out debt and you come out to like $7.52 per share, the stock selling right now at $1.27 a share. How are we going to – I know you have a plan to somehow because you own 35% of this outstanding shares, to get the share price closer to the – that’s the proved reserves, I mean, we’re not talking about probable reserves. What does that – do you have like an overall plan to somehow get that share price a little bit closer to the asset value is what I’m trying to ask?

    Tom Cooke

    Well, I think it’s – I think its performance. We’ve had a bad year and we’ve had a bad quarter. I think that you’re going to see the market respond to us being able to prove that we can produce more barrels and reach those objectives that we’ve outlined. So, we’re hopefully, have seen the bottom. We have definitely seen a sharp turn.

    I could say if you go back to runtime alone with 50% increase that means you got 50% basically shut in at any given time. So that’s in the 70s now. So, I think you’re going to start to see performance and it’s – I can’t stress enough how much I believe that’s been tied to morale and performance in the field.

    Joe Dancy - LSGI Advisor

    Okay. I mean, because the discrepancy between the asset value and the stock, I mean, it’s substantial and it’s – you really see it this large which to me presents opportunities. And it’s interesting analysis. So, thanks guys, good luck, I appreciate the help.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • and it is like the analyst said on the CC this baby is worth much more now than the $7.59 price tag mentioned!

    Congrats to all that bought at this low price and had faith this company was in a turn around mode.

    Now go back and lets do a calculation of Flowing Barrels per market cap!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Rocky 3 Completion Issues

    by pulsewrighter May 24, 2014 6:42 PM
    logantrader1960 logantrader1960 May 30, 2014 8:12 AM Flag

    "I believe you would need to factor in debt per flowing barrel as well to get a good comparison."

    You are absolutely correct and with this factored in (debt) this is around $104,500 per flowing barrel.

    I'm holding out hope that the personnel changes, increase in run times coupled with the Rocky wells and re-completions will get this one back on track without any further added debt.

  • Reply to

    Rocky 3 Completion Issues

    by pulsewrighter May 24, 2014 6:42 PM
    logantrader1960 logantrader1960 May 29, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    Running through the flowing barrel equivalent per day calculation with a current market cap of 38M it looks like this is trading for roughly $20,266.00 per flowing barrel. If they can straighten out some of the issues they have had in the past, maintain their current production or possibly increase the number, then SARA is priced way below the average comparable.

  • logantrader1960 by logantrader1960 May 27, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    Well at least they raised the price objective to $31.00. Add in the $2.90 in distributions and I'm good with this.

    LinnCo (NASDAQ:LNCO)‘s stock had its “neutral” rating restated by investment analysts at JP-Morgan Chase & Co. in a note issued to investors on Tuesday. They currently have a $31.00 price objective on the stock, up from their previous price objective of $30.00. JP-Morgan Chase & Co.’s target price suggests a potential upside of 13.97% from the company’s current price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • logantrader1960 by logantrader1960 May 23, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    The Tough Get Going!

    If this hits $27.00 count me in for another 2K shares and I will be up to 7K at that point.
    This is pretty senseless for the stock to be trading down here, but sometimes you have to be smarter than the street!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • logantrader1960 logantrader1960 May 22, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    You really can't look at this price action short term. Just remember this stock including LINE is under heavy short selling. Eventually the longs will win this war, but short term just collect the dividend. What we all just learned on this asset swap is our stock is now more secure than it has been in a long while. Hang in there, collect the dividend and don't worry about the day to day, hour to hour, or minute to minute action.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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