my understanding is that the Wyoming property they just took over this year was in pretty poor condition when they got it. As in, neglected or poorly managed. They had 4 compressors fail, some bad drill patters that lowered pressure. They've been fixing it just trying to get back to the level they thought it was going to be running at when they took over. However, it sounds like they really love the property, so hopefully it runs smoothly soon.
No not 100%, but near enough. Can you name a producer who is better hedged? All of those others would suffer first, and reduce production first.
Actually all you might need is a big pile of insider buying at these prices to light the fuse.
Facebook could announce a new game called "Mining with friends" and hand out free shares of TC as a promotion for the game. It would be kind of a retro thing for them since, you know, since mining actual physical stuff is so last century and has no use in the new digital world.
Yes a freight train moving at 50 mph instead of a sports car going 100. So what if the speed is slower. Never understood why people freak out about growth slowing there when its so much bigger overall.
India also has massive infrastructure needs. If they ever get out of their own way, they are going to need very large amounts of "stuff"
I'm still reading several stories saying oil is headed down to $40 maybe even $30. Considering that's where it was in the 2008-2009 crash I thought a bit about the reasons this fear got going then.
in 2008 there were many headlines telling us this was the start of a new "Great Depression", all our businesses would close, and we'd be living in tents etc. A lot of fear. Oil fell to $30. Makes sense.
Now the headlines are all going on about the massive "glut" in oil. We're massively oversupplied, nobody will cut, we're swimming in oil...temporarily...by about 2-3% oversupply. OMG, you're right, the world is ending! Oil should do the same thing it did back then. Makes sense.
So looking at it that way, the price drop is a massive over reaction, looking to literally put some people out of business right away and eliminate supply. Or else there are invisible hands at work intentionally whipping the media into a frenzy to drive the price down for other reasons. Wouldn't surprise me.
Seems like they could easily take out 10% of the units. They could increase distributions 20 cents, or increase coverage to 1.1, or likely a bit of both.
I don't know if we'll see a lot of forced land sales out there, but I'd be really impressed if they could find a purchase that added value at current prices. That could be a huge win in a few years.
Lots of green right now, but no guarantee this is over. We have to see some solid production cuts somewhere and enough fear to slow growth for a bit. Has that happened? Maybe. Hard to tell.
Well if I were China I certainly wouldn't want to ship my Moly out of the country. There's only so much and then its gone. Tell the WTO where they can stick their threat.
MEMP also did not fall as far. something like LNCO was trading with a yield of 30% vs. memps 18%. The ones hit harder are just trying to catch up to where we are already.
Given a choice between stealing, I mean borrowing, Endako equipment or paying $70 million cash, its a pretty easy choice. At MM they could use the stuff to make enough money that they could buy new equipment later.
BBEPP preferreds have barely moved. Still sitting at 19. ARP isn't in terrible shape (just not as good as memp) and sitting at 24% yield. I think I'll need to post a table.
LNCO could be very good, if they get that big pile of cash from sales and start buying. But they have been in a state of massive change, so its hard to know exactly where they stand now. Of course, if it gets cheap enough, you just assume they'll have to cut, but that its a good deal anyway.
In that time, the place I was really making money (and I know some of you) was in the REIT space. Especially preferred, where payments were "almost" guaranteed, but they were trading in the single digits with yields in the 20%+ range. A handful of names made me a ton of money. Here we are again. The trick is going to be locating the mis-priced among all of the down oilpatch companies. But it is critical that we share knowledge. We are small investors, no amount we buy will make a difference in price, communication,observation, and reaction time will be our advantages.
We know MEMP is the best hedged so far. It hasn't gotten beaten down as much as some others. We believe it is safe. Some other things are on my watch list. ARP preferreds, down 8% as I type, but only yielding about 13%. (ONLY haha). But basically anything could be a good deal if it gets hit hard enough.
I know exactly what you're saying. Plus there are a lot of moving pieces, some big shift by the wrong piece and you'll lose the gain.
Yes I find it interesting that EVERYONE wants to devalue their currency. Even the US is still at zero rates, and yet commodities aren't doing squat.