Fairly irrational at the moment. All the stuff that should be driving the market lower, dollar up, oil up, Japan Industrial Production Down, lower than forecast US consumption, instead driving it up. Seems like a stimulus fest going on...but still just hitting the ball against the wall, pinging back and forth in the range really going nowhere. Still basically same place as last November 2014. LR
Driven, yes SIRI is a fantastic long term investment. It was $4.17 on 10/22/2013 and it's what today $3.98. This is like buying a five year German Bund at negative interest rates right?!!! By contrast at the same time you could have just invested in the SPY S&P 500 and not had individual stock risk and made like 20%. SIRI ain't much of a long term investment if you haven't noticed lately. LR
Six month chart of S&P sort of looks like a 3 peaks and a dome thing. Maybe I am seeing paper dolls and it doesn't really matter. How long does just jawboning get the job done? When do we run out of room to store oil in US?
This must be your non-sensical rally. I'm not sure what else you would call it. The ten year goes up 5% when the Fed takes out patient!! They are data dependent just in case we didn't know that already. The 2015 GDP growth forecast went down. Don't ask me how this helps oil at the highest inventory level of all time and with refinery down time right around the corner to change over to summer blend. I think your time frames may be off a little and it still is not Spring yet. You got the non-sense part right! LR
Does Yahoo even work anymore? In other news bad news still moving the market up. Oil hitting $43, Santander now going after deep subprime, ECB can not buy all the bonds it wants, us. Manifacting down 3 months in a row, and this is good for the market right?
If good news is bad news and bad is good then I guess this market has a bunch of new factors to rally on. But not sure I like those factors for the economy. Watch out pension funds watch out!!!
Today I joined the maybe not camp. But it's not Spring yet.
"The FTSE has put in a triple top and has rolled over while the DAX and Nikkei are making new highs. We may have one more rally before we join the FTSE. The spring will not be pretty."
Don't forget Iron Ore,...Rio Tinto set to cut hundreds of WA iron ore jobs...Analysts have slashed iron ore price forecasts since the start of the year. Iron ore has crashed about 50 per cent in the past year to $US62 a tonne.
Not to be outdone by...XJobs report deepens emerging market rout. The rout in emerging market currencies accelerated after Friday's better than expected US jobs report sent the US dollar higher and supported investors' view that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner rather than later this year.X
Still not to sure about that one more rally. I don't think 2175 hits, but maybe it gets back to 2119 and makes a newer high around 2130. Yeah big deal on the quarter point raise. This is like the constant going on about the tapper of last year. The commodities have issues. I think it is nasty business to unwind on the pension funds. Move HOV asserts. Hard to value or shrinking value I should say. Too bad the COC is not looking at who is buying the stuff as well. Should be getting DOJ and DOL involved as well.
Did wave 5 get lost someplace in time and space. I know the chart lady HM wants a pullback before another rally. Don't see how on earth the US ten year can stay elevated when the ECB is going to buy negative interest rate bonds and China cut their growth target to 7% and some estimate the true growth for them is more like 3/4%. And all the commodities keep plunging. LR
Looks like letting more air out of the tire action again. If this weird moving market sets a new high in next week or so, I think SIRI might get close to theirs or back over $4 anyway. . I think this market is running out of things to push. China accepting lower growth, more currency devaluations & oil inventories building with refinery maintenance season around the corner in a few weeks.
WWT, that's what I am thinking on the funding. Higher numbers are coming, how much more ??? But I don't think done on the upside for now.
So...we know also the HSBC guys to are always true blue in their assessments & dealings?
xxxx-The preliminary HSBC China manufacturing PMI, a competing gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, rose to 50.1 in February compared with a final reading of 49.7 in January, HSBC Holdings PLC said last week. The final February HSBC reading is due out Monday.
Market running in place, won't tank and just seems to be marking time going sideways. Not sure what catalyst can take the S&P to 2175 in the next few weeks as all the data seems so mediocre except for jobs, which are of the lower paying variety. Maybe because there is no yield anywhere and greed. I think SIRI makes it to the $4.00 area or close next week based on new cars sales for Feb. Wow the Toyota Corolla is the US top selling sedan again now?!! What happen to the big luxury cars?
I see Moodys recently downgraded Petroabras and I think this Journalxx comment was interesting...
Still, the deepening woes at Petrobras have investors on edge about the state of Brazil’s economy, which some analysts predict may contract both in 2014 and 2015, in what would be the first back-to-back decline in gross domestic product since the Great Depression. LR
Same pattern everyday lately for S&P to. Every AM the market starts down, with futures down and then market down. Then in PM comes back to life & even or a little plus or rallies. But just about every day starts in the red. For me oil is one of the biggest keys. If oil can not keep stable neither can this market. it is trading on tranquilizers and sometimes has hallucinations from the overdose and if it goes into rehab is gonna crash for it's own good, just hopefully not too bad. LR
Jim Paulsen 1/12/2015
Stocks today historically high based on midcap valuations. Only two times higher in 51 and 69 and both followed by significant corrections.
David Kostin, 1/12/2015
From GS, 2015 S&P target 2100 end of year. If no Fed increase maybe 2300. Looks like Fed is boxed into corner to me to increase.
Byron Wien, 2/19/2015, surprise market rally in 2015 to +10% even though S&P earnings will be flat and forecasts have been lowered for earnings. Would you tell your grandmother that and to buy???
Mr. Elliot wave, as promised we are now posting our next long term target for this bull market: SPX 2530 to SPX 2630 by Q1/Q2 2016. Say it ain’t so Mr. Elliot. Is that in wave # 27 ??? LR
Hey WWT & Duke , Thought SIRI might hit 4.01 last week the way it started off. Agree with WWT the volume was not inspiring. I still think Oil is the key and Greece is the sideshow. The AAII Reading is perking up for Bulls. From TS& Jimmy & The Crew…”Yesterday, we reviewed the Investors Intelligence readings and showed how extreme they are, with four times as many bulls as bears.
Today, we found the American Association of Individual Investors' weekly survey had so few bears (17%) that I had to go back to early November to find a reading this low. At that time, the bears had gone so far into hibernation that this reading sunk to 15%”
I still see people talking about expanding market multiples for real!. Didn’t CAT, DEER, Pepsi and Coke tell us different? I like FB and it looks like a breakout for them. I am playing my favorite weapon for about the past year “The SPY”, right now Calls. I am doing some SIRI also. Ping ponging between the two seems to be working out for me for now. LR