I thought the Friday session was rather crazy. A lot of indecision out there. So maybe things have changed. I think we find out next week. If the S&P breaks 1972 then I think it is breaking badly. Maybe SIRI lucks out if they beat, but the German 10 Year almost on par now with Japan does not spell growth. I was surprised with oil catching a bid and the market could not hold on. Maybe it's all part of game playing theory or maybe some people are really worried. LR
Been asking myself how the market can possibly make a new high here. I guess it is always possible. The Fed just seems to have put a foot in their mouth with their latest statement. Can they get a do-over? I'm not a pessimist but just not seeing the catalyst here. Eventually cheap oil might help the economy down the road later in the year. Hey we have the internet right???!
"Earlier this week, Fed Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren told the WSJ he wants to hold off on raising short-term interest rates until inflation shows more convincing signs of rising toward the central bank’s 2% target.
But Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Friday the surprisingly weak inflation doesn’t necessarily support the U.S. central bank keeping interest rate near zero."
Does Bullard even know what he is talking about? Whoa, he's the guy that said maybe we should hold off on ending QE back in October right, due to low inflation? Now he is defending the raise! ? You can't have it both ways can you Jimmy?
Is the Fed ready to admit defeat yet on inflation? Probably not here this coming week and our dollar will continue to get stronger in these currency wars.
Will our market continue to rally? If so, it doesn't seem to me to have much more time left on the shot clock. LR
"Obama to Propose Tax Increases on Investments" WSJ
Maybe one more reason to sell later on this year as well.
I felt the market was at a DP but that the point was heading down. Once we were at 2000 S&P again, SPY calls again. It's still dicey but feel a bit better about a short term trade. I didn't hear anybody except D suggest this call and looked at many sources. Just my 2 cents.
Duke, does not seem like we are gonna get that one more leg up before a serious market fall. At least so far this month with oil, poor earnings and now SNB shocks not too positive. Does ECB QE really do much here? I think our Fed is gonna say something soon to. I know 3 Fed heads talking on Friday. I just don't see much of that next leg up to stand on right now. LR
Frank thanks. Ya, I think 1965 is in play and I keep hearing Guy Adami on FM saying it is going to 1957 area on S&P. I got a temporary subscription to real Mooney to listen to the chart lady Helen and her take. She keeps saying the market needs more of a whoosh down to set up some positive divergences. I just kept thinking after reading her if it gets too much of a whoosh down it might just get flushed down the toilet instead, ha. She seems more on the practical side and like reading her occasionally. I see three Fed Heads speaking tomorrow including Bullard. Don’t know if their Jawboning can stop the slide, doubt it.
I am very muddy now on if the ECB QE is more than a very short term positive or a much of a positive at all. Maybe our Fed says something about delaying rate hikes. I think the bond people already figured that one out. Also on Duke’s 2007 comparison, I reviewed that and maybe the Dow made a new high on the last leg up but the S&P did not from what I could see, just went back up near a high but not a new one. Then from that high hit a 16/18% decline. Anyway that was 2007. Yes losing 9000 jobs not exactly a great outcome for TX. Glad I am not in the oil patch.
I will have to say the HO was right on the 40 day mark from 12/2/14 to the end of last week. Maybe that SIRI 3.66 mark was the high. Possibly this market can rally with one more leg up sort of like that Movie “An Officer and a Gentleman” Cause I ain’t got nowhere else to go. I think the Ten Year does get close to 1% at some point this year on deflation and oil. I could see another round of QE later in the year happen but how would that really help fix the economy? Have a good trip to SP. Also I think Duke was trying to say something with #$%$ in last post, but other than $ going higher not sure what it meant. LR
Frank and WWT do you think this is a larger correction than a HO 5/7%er? Do you think the ECB QE is gonna spark a rally or a fizzle? I,m guessing a rally but it is very messy out there with not too many positives. I think cheap gas will eventually,3-5 month from now be a stimulus to our and other economies but the downdraft was way to fast to contain. SIRI weirdly holding up. For now.
Frank, thank you for the run down. Yes I didn't like the S&P closing below the 50 day either. I'm long SPY calls right now. Probably should have bailed Thursday evening but stayed in. Monday morning could see some more selling and then we'll have to see if it straighten's out. On SIRI WWT had an idea that it could go to 3.89 if it gets past 3.66 here either end of 2014 which it didn't or early in 2015.
I'm really watching out for that. WWT can make some really good calls at times. I'm just gonna watch SIRI from here and if it gets close to that 3.89 mark I will make my move on that. GL
Side note, start of 2014 saw three days of selling also,
"As a result, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell each of the first three days of the year, the first time that’s happened since 2005." Reported inaccurately in Barrons. Just want to set the record straight.
Very funny Paul, no not hardly. What are you the board police now? I hear there are a lot of jobs in the service industry picking up. If you improve your customer service skills maybe you can pick one up as a bartender. LR
Frank, thanks did not catch that. I don't think there is much more downside in short term, but there is trouble down the road.
Good thought provoking writes. This is why I like to read you and you actually seem to know what you are taking about... most of the time anyway. I dropped my XM subscription for the first time since I have owned my auto. Thought I would try something different. They always talk me into another half price subscription. When they asked why I was dropping I said my commute was short so I didn't listen to it that much. They offered to give me a free portable receiver so I could listen to it at home or at work but I declined that also...but I was surprised at that offer of free equipment. Thought they were really stretching to keep me on. Just feel like SIRI is not keeping up with the times and their content hasn't changed that much and I can get the same from other sources for most what I want.
As to the market I am more in the downer camp. I saw the 6 confirmed HO's back in December 14 and very eerily similar to last December 2013 same kind of thing. As to SIRI thought it might have it's usual January effect and maybe still will. But yes these guys sound like the announcer in the Movie MASH when they are talking and sound like the camp guy who gives the movie highlights to the crew for the night. It just always sounds the same and underscored.
We are living in funny times. I just can not get over how low Japan's and Germany's Ten Year Bonds have got to and yet we think our Ten Year will go up. How?? I think Jeffrey Gundlach’s Surprising Forecast is more in line. How does this spell growth? Can the US really decouple from the rest of the world for a considerable time? We shall see. This year will present some new challenges for me in the pension world. My boss usually says we have to be more efficient and learn to do more with less kind of thing. This year he is singing a different tune saying we have to cut back on what we can do and the services we provide. Saying we can only do less with less. It's going to be a different kind of year for sure. GL-LR
Frank, WW and Duke all the same. I have had some better fortune this later part of the year. My parents in law business just had some serious issues with a fire. Everyone is fine but it will probably change the course of where they are at and maybe retire which could be a good thing I hope. I'm ready for some bowl games also. LR
Duke, thanks for the well thought out posts. Even the CNBC FM guys are scratching their heads at this one. I saw gas at $1.91 a gallon yesterday at a station in town. It has a nice holidays feel to it. It's good for me but I don't think it's good for these EM countries. If it wasn't going down so fast it might be more of a positive but there is bound to be some serious hiccup down the road with the fallout. Merry Christmas also!