I do think there is a market hiccup before end of year but like Duke says probably in the 38.2% of recent move varity type. Unless there is some wild card “river card” not played here SIRI just wants to keep punching higher. In one technical service I pay for and one I look at that is free, one says to short it-pay for; the other says to stay long-free. Yep I am still uncertain about it and if I play, I will play from the lower end if it comes. Right now I am looking at and working with the refiners though they are difficult to work with and cut backwords a lot as they move up. Usually this time of year is very good for them.
Hey WWT good to hear from you. SIRI does keep getting pushed higher and in a funny way. In active trading it keeps pushing, pennies higher mostly, with current market up moves and the S&P and in the AH it fades a few cents every day only to pick right up where it started in active trading.
Ha, I am sort of lost with SIRI. I did short it and got out mostly around the 3.20 area on the quick market down move. I don’t see how it gets to even the 2.90 area in any way easy here now, been attempting to figure that one out.
I do think there is a market hiccup before end of year but like Duke says probably in the 38.2% of recent move verity. Unless there is some wild card “river card” not played here SIRI just want to keep punching higher. I one technical service and look at a free one. One says to short it; the other says to stay long. Yep I am still uncertain about it and if I play, I play from the lower end if it comes. Right now I am looking at the refiners though they are difficult to work with and cut backwords a lot as they move up. Usually this time of year is very good for them.
My sense is that they kicked the correction can down the road with the Central Bank talk and some desperate moves by BOJ and the ECB...but not as far as they think. For SIRI I have lost my sense on what's going on there. I covered all a while back. Maybe WWT had the best idea that the game plan would be changed and watch out for $4 by EOY. It looks to be on a path to retest the 3.60 area once more. How much the diluation factor plays in I can't judge from the converts. Maybe JM has a message for them. I'm watching the ballgame from the sidelines here. LR
For what it is worth, the markets managed to kick the can down the road, with Bullard talk, BOJ QE and Draghi speak. I don’t think however they kicked it as far down the road as they think they have. The Q3 earnings beats were slim even though at a high percent of beats and guidance was generally poor. We don’t have 2% inflation yet, but we do have 20% annual food inflation going on so go figure how that works. The retail stores are opening earlier and earlier for TG and starting weird sales already. By my estimates annual GDP is gonna end up booking in at under 2% for 2014. Your currency issues are getting worse. Our Ten Year T is still very close to the 2.3% mark even with the Fed saying beware of market volatility later on in 2015 after we start raising the short term rates. We hit new highs on all the major averages something not done since March 1998 last week. We are having a market party right now with the Republican victories, and I don’t think we have seen much of any down day since the sell off except for maybe one day that was meet with a better up day next.
So the "can" is rolling around out of the way for now. But how far did they really kick it?
As for SIRI, maybe 3.50 is the top for now. It seems to be losing some traction again. LR
Ok, since I got out it (covered) it didn't recover at the end of the day like it has been doing for a week. This market is on the waco up side but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt right now. I think in 5 to 10 years Japn will go bankrupt. They can keep kicking the can down the road but the road is getting shorter for them. Too little inflation is bad, too much is also, Can't sustaian that debt load. We better stay out of that situation ourselves.
Frank I covered on SIRI my 1/3 left. To me it looks like it's going back to the 3.6 area. Been doing this pattern since earnings of selling off 4/5 cents in the A/M everyday then ramping back up end of day and sometimes dramatically. I'm not saying there are no concerns out there, but a different game plan appears to be in the works. Wonder if this is WWT's off the cuff knock it to $4 by the end of the year. Regardless it's moving up with the S&P and in the near term the S&P is acting too well with our low interest rate environment backdrop. LR
Hey Duke Part 3, So OK, it’s possible we make a double top here. I’m hesitant to move my 401(k) type funds back to full market throttle. BUT I don’t see the sell off here anymore either. Possibly you are right but it’s just very hard for me to see that at this point. The market is at a very funky place right now I agree. This recent move seems more like the Hindenburg move from last May/June 2013 and then the market bought it all back up quickly in two weeks time and zoomed ahead. I am thinking more now that the real market shock will be when the Fed does actually raise interest rates and who knows when that will be… Mid 2015 Late 2015? We didn’t fix the world either in the two weeks time the market went back up. I never thought I would see Embola either in my own back yard anytime soon but it was there way to close to home.
So this brings me to SIRI. I am having a hard time seeing that 2.74/2.76 print here without an S&P downer to help. Yes we will get some dilation in a month, but what if SIRI retraces it’s down move in a slow S&P year end grind move up to say around the S&P 2150 level and that allows SIRI to go to that $3.60 level again? That scenario looks to be possible on the table to me as well. The cheap gas here for awhile has to be a big plus for consumers, even if Russia, Iran and Venezuela are having a hard time with it. I didn’t hear anything really exciting or earth shattering on the SIRI CC and earnings and saw that S&P maintained their $4.00 price target on the stock with No Upgrade as well. But I didn’t see something to tank the stock either however…so it just drifts and moves with the S&P for now…I’m keeping an open mind but the bulls have the steering wheel right now. LR
Hey Duke Part 2, The market has made a spectacular recovery in two weeks and it is tough work finding a bear around willing to make any kind of negative call. Maybe there could be some market slight hiccup with the mid-term election but with the usual buy but buy the dip call coming right behind it. Now I don’t think the US economy is all fixed and I still think there is significant work needed to be done. Extreme monetary policy has bought us some time but I don’t think we have used it all that wisely. To me stock buy backs are ok but they don’t structurally solve any problems. That’s the best use we can make use of all this fee cash in the system?!! I see lot’s of small businesses having a hard time. I see people having significant issues with the new insurance. I see flat incomes and see people having a hard time out of the workforce finding a decent wage job and I see Macy’and Kohl’s thinking they need to open at 6 PM on Thanksgiving to be relevant to shoppers. And then there is the Ten Year T still hovering around the low 2.3% mark.
Welcome to our new normal super low interest rate between banks, but yes department store credit cards still get to charge you 20% + percent on your account so buy buy buy. The consumer does not look to be doing so hot in that 3.5 % GDP print coming mostly from defense spending by the US and if I add in the negative 3% aberration weather print in Q1 and 4.5% GDP in Q2 that brings us to an annual cumulative GPG rate of (-3 + 4.5=3.5 =5/3) = (1.7%) with Goldman Sacks lowering their 4th Quarter GDP estimate to 2.20%. So annually we are hovering at an under 2% GDP at about where the Fed is tracking that inflation to be as well and they don’t like it.
Hey Duke Part 1, you have layed out a good argument about SIRI’s long term downtrend over the past year since later 2013. It has made sense. Your market predictions have been good also. Something did happen from later September to Mid-October and we got a 9.8% intraday correction and about a 7%er end of day to end of day. I think if the S&P had tanked another 4 to 5% when it hit 1820 SIRI would have probably gone down to 2.88 or 2.98 anyway and most likely have closed that 2.90 gap.
Now the S&P 500 has retraced 197 points or nearly 100% of its loss. In that time the market if you caught that falling knife at near 1820 has gone back up 10.8%! While SIRI has gone from 3.14 its recent low and now back up to 3.43 this past Friday with the zoom at a 9.2% clip. So SIRI is tracking the S&P move fairly closely. Now SIRI did not make any great move on earnings day and retraced a bit of a gain with a 2 cents loss but since then has been making a slow grinding move up and now is within 17 cents of retracing the loss from the 3.6 area.
This story reminds me of the boxer movie "Raging Bull". Is this market gonna really rally all the way through the rest of the year and we end up like at 2150 on the S&P EOY? Somehow that does not seem right, but if it fought through all this then, so maybe so. I'm having to recalibrate my thoughts on SIRI here to.
Hey, WWT...yah probably the decline is over. The BTFDers did it again. In a way can’t I say blame them when the lame 10 Ten Year can’t cross the 2.5% plane. I will have to admit was hoping for a 10/15% end of day to end of day decline and the best we could do was intra-day 10%. Still better than a run of the mill Hindenburg Omen. I think some of the same concerns are out there now still. With growth number 1 among them.
I would have liked to seen some of the froth taken out of stocks and I would feel better going forward about them if it did. Now I’m battling with a 6 month scenario myself and if I want to put my pension funds that must be invested either in an fund index like the S&P or Russell or the 10-year T into stocks. I want to see how this mid-tern thing plays out and the QE ending also for a bit. But the bulls have sure spoken out for sure. I kinda don’t get how all these hedge funds could under perform the S&P when these are these Ivy league boys have some many close and smart computers, but maybe too many beers and too many fears.
I want see how the next two weeks play out. I think very short term some volatility and mild pull back and you may be right onto the 2019 test. It just seems too fast but that would be just like the 2013 May/June Hindenburg get me back in reaction.
For SIRI I have to wonder also how this affects Duke Thesis. Because even though he has a long term downtrend thesis, thought it was also built and a market downturn for the 2.74/2.75 area since SIROI seems to track the market so well. I think there is a 5% dilution factor coming up. But I am thinking also, even though I would lump SIRI in somewhat with the Cult stocks that have gotten hammered 10/15% still they have real earnings.
One last thing. Boy there were some great short term buys in the Oils, CVX, PSX, XOM, VLO to name a few. GL
Just one other silly comment...everything seems to be working today except for SIRI and I didn't think the results were bad, but maybe not just no good enough. And it seemed like the market was really out to sell off the so called cult stocks.
It looks like the market bulls are making a statement today. I can't say I totally agree with it but it looks like the tapper worked for now. Somebody else had a different plan.
Frank Yah, the UNC thing not a good thing. My wife and I got into a conversation with me that colleges should drop sports that she brought up after I mentioned that UNC situation to her. She brought up there was a top notch college in town that had no sports but was number one in the nation on their chess team and the college was very good. Maybe more college should offer no sports and just concentrate on education.
Personally I think the Fed government should start an initiative now of creating new colleges in all states “since the Demand is so high” based on the price tag and with the mandate there are no sports in these new federal colleges and maybe even open up some national trade schools. Yah it is a crazy idea. I think with the current price tag of college it is becoming to elitist thing and the system of college is starting to be broken.
Don't know what will go on with SIRI tomorrow. Still in my 1/3 short on my play. I could see a bounce however. It has it's possibilities. Kinda interesting "Mathematically" on where the market has been since QE3. I see the S&P 500 market low at 1353 on 11/15/2012 I think about a month after QE3 started and to the recent high of 2019 is about 666 point up…Ya weird. Anyway about 23.6% of that is 157 points, close to the 148 S&P points we were down intra-day on 10/15/14. Now if there is a second leg down and it goes to the 38.2% retracement level this would bring the market to around 1765. Not saying it will happen, just playing with numbers.
I was think the oil movement down could be a plus catalyst for the market, but now I am staring to think it could actually be a big negative for this market. This has got to be hurting some of the big oil producing economies big time with possible effects to the US as well. Anyway GL. LR
As usual it can go either way SIRI and the market. Still a lot of things to fix out there and I don't think they are. I do think the Fed stops the QE for now also. Maybe when I get to be 90 I will see the Ten Year Treasury rate back up to 4%. When my daughter was born her great grandmother bought her some 30 year savings bonds which at the time I thought were kinda of cute but Dorky investments. Today if she holds them to maturity she will quadruple the initial cost investment. Not a bad deal actually. I am wondering if that will ever be available again? Thanks for your write-ups. LR
OK, so what I saw this week and weekend almost everyone universally says the correction is over and it’s on ahead and forward. Maybe not so fast and so much, but the correction is definitely over. After about an hour and a half of googleing I found one guy who says whoa not so fast this correction may have a second leg. He is looking at what happened after QE1 and QE2 that both of those corrections that eventually went to like 16% and 19% of a correction had a second leg to them and the second leg corrected further down. One guy. .
So what else I saw was that the market seems to be taking out the Cult stocks and shooting them here lately. Did you notice NFLX, TSLA, AMZN, DDD and yes P lately? Well not so hot even on this wild snap back upspring rally. And for the great earnings at MFST last Thursday the stock went up a whopping $1.75 after the report on a two more back to back plus S&P days. And BABA which was down to $88.85 the last time S&P 500 was at the 1970 area before going down further was at $88.85 and now it’s like at $95/96. Hum does that make sense?
So then I noticed this company called Lumber Liquidators (LL) went down something like 20% since 10/20. So the housing recovery is all intact and the Market is all Ok now right?
Well today more like a waterfall and in reverse also. SIRI hanging in there. My play made sense to cash out 2/3 but it’s still a good short in this market environment (NFLX). E a real concern, not just a market concern. Too close to home. A confluence of events into this turn. I don’t think it is a fun turn but it can be manageable.
Yes it seems like the Fed also has one additional lightly spoken mandate and that is to save the stock market. I can understand it somewhat, in that you have to save all those pension plans and pension funds. Someone from someplace must be there to save them. I just wish someone from a high place would give more thought to saving the economy First before you save all the pension funds and house prices. It might make more sense to start from the bottom up rather than the top down, but then again what do I know.
Frank you got me to thinking and I should have picked up on it sooner but but I looked at the Flabby things last Thursday night afterword. It looked like 3.25 besides being the mark was at 62% and I looked at the next retracement percent and was at 76.4% around 3.14/3/15. I did not think SIRI was gonna go that low that fast but covered 2/3 of my short so to speak at the 3.20 level i thought it could hit.
This wipsaw downslide for SIRI has to stop somewhere. I am thinking about 3.10 short term. But then again it's just gonna keep following the S&P hand played out.
I have to wonder if some of these big integrated Oil stocks CVX and XOM are getting to be buys already if for nothing else than their dividend. Eventually winter is on us and heating oil is needed.
Anyway Monday should be interesting if they keep pressing the downside or they can rally at the 200. Most things I am reading so far (but not all) is this is not a big deal and the S&P is just gonna bounce and we needed this little adjustment.