Have a good vacation. Good articles. I have been thinking for awhile what is the Fed going to doing once this round of QE ends? More (ZIRP). I don't think there is the will to just jump in and do another QE 4+ after all these rounds of it and not being that effective in the real economy. New voting Fed members may be having a stronger voice to not go along with more of it. I think with the 10Y TB going the wrong way in yield this is a statement about the world economy and about the US for sure as well and it's not a statement about a velocity take off robust economy either. I think the Fed is running out of tools in their tool box myself. Can our markets survive WITHOUT the Fed's and world QE policies anymore? You have to wonder.
I get tired of this bad news is good new scenario. I know we have to save the stock market and real estate because if we don't what the heck is going to happen to all these pension funds? They can't survive on no 2%+ yield. No big company is ever going to happily want to start a defined benefit plan again like they used to. We live in a 401(k) defined contribution world as we push the risk out to the workers. But can this Fed trickle down QE policies really do something to make that better? It makes sense we need the yield. It doesn't make so much sense that trickle down works and that economies are really getting better like you say "with all the income disparity". Have fun.
Duke, I know it's high finance but if GS loans me the TB's to use as my collateral to pay them back on default how are they really protected because they are the that loaned them to me? I believe what you are saying but it does not make that much sense either that actually works as a collateral arrangement.
Duke, thanks for your Sunday Blogs and GL through end of year. Ya we rallied, just barely, but we did.
I see the Ford Research note.
" Ford's Sell recommendation on Sirius XM Holdings Inc. is the result of our systematic analysis on three basic characteristics: earnings strength, relative valuation,
and recent stock price movement. The company has managed to produce a neutral trend in earnings per share over the past 5 quarters. However, while recent
estimates for the company have been lowered by analysts, SIRI has posted results that fell short of analysts expectations. Based on operating earnings yield, the
company is overvalued when compared to all of the companies we cover. Share price changes over the past year indicates that SIRI will perform very poorly over
the near term.
Earnings Strength is NEUTRAL"
I'm hoping it holds, but if not I'm ready to. Thought the TY DC thing Peak Research point was interesting from the standpoint that just saw it and the cross was in April and it has not spelled good results the last 4 times before. The ten years near and just above that 2.4% mark and that's just too low. One of these days they need to get an administration in there that's pro business that doesn't mind doing something for the little guy as well. Thanks
Duke, if there is some kind of rally coming it's not from this level. Don't know what would spur it either except for putting on the beer goggles and driving ahead. Maybe near the 50 day MA level there is support for awhile and a rally. I would say Putin and the Ten Year Death Cross are having a new negative effect on this market.
That Peak Market research and ten year DC thing are interesting and happened both times the Fed turned off the previous QE's. I don't see how we can be building enough in a dum down to zero interest rate environment. I think Bill Gross got it wrong.
Hey Frank nice move. Very nice. Looks more like the S&P wants to test that 1860/1875 level. I had a small position in SPY Puts I sold last week. I wish I would have held onto them but did make a gainer on it. Duke seems to think one more rally is possible. Maybe after we get to the S&P near 50 day. The market is reacting to negative news more severely it seems as that Fed Put is moving away from my observation. .
Well a countermove for SIRI in a negative market on Tuesday. I guess all the air had already been let out if the ballon. Thought after Monday we might get that last spasm rally and I guess still could, but not looking like it today. Maybe too much Russia and not enough Fed.
Ha, one more rally would really be something. Don't know how they can keep pulling that off. I am leaning bear but i'll work on holding back just yet. Be patient grasshopper. Thanks
Duke "Anyway I told you SIRI would break out from the 50DMA, 200DMA trap. The 50 day is at 3.38. The stock at 3.31. It is too early to buy or short. Patience. " SIRI certainly has had significant opportunity to move up all this while when the market has been going up. I read the S&P note and earnings adjustment but thought SIRI would probably manage a 3.50+ this week. It’s not effective to short it here either. That seems to be the game. SIRI has not moved up against the market much also on this dead man’s run in place buy back it’s doing, occasionally but not much. It moves like a zombie stock and it’s hard to watch the non-sense of it.
I though a Barrons piece comment was interesting, not new but interesting “"This is the beginning of a little taper tantrum," says Diana Joseph, chief investment officer at Barrington Strategic Wealth Management. As the Fed's easy money-policies reverse, people are forced to focus more on what they're paying for investments. If last week is any indication, investors didn't like what they saw in their portfolios.”
CNBC is always talking about the Fed yet they don’t talk much about how the unwinding of QE3 or is it QE+3 as it could affect the market-just some uncertainty. They don’t talk much about a liquidity issue just that we may be due for a correction. It just seems that as the Fed backs out with QE real world and market events have more meaning for the market with the Fed Put going away. Maybe the market finds a way to get back to close to the S&P 50 DMA. Yellen herself seems to be awfully aware of the market and now I hear the Vix. Seems out of place and not economic in a sense to me keeping in line with meeting their stated goals on inflation and unemployment and picking up the “slack” in the labor market. I heard the “slack” term used enough this week.
I hope the bond guys are wrong on the recession idea but with all that said and done and people worried about inflation and the Fed maybe raising rates earlier it stands out as peculiar that the Ten Year keeps sliding even as we printed a 4% GDP growth rate in Q2. Ha when it gets revised two more times will probably end up being something like +2.5% rate of Q2, and then what is that for the first six months of the year, still a zero or negative gain. So for the rest of 2014 we will have to print GDP at a plus 4% rate just to having a yearly 2% GDP growth and that will still be under estimates. I am thinking the bond guys are more right than wrong.
Duke "SIRI used to be a trading stock but now I can't even find an entry point. I have abandoned SIRI as a long term hold until it reinvents itself." Probably the most significant thing you said this week.
4% GDP Q2
SIRI Hits on Significant Metrics Q2
New $2 Billion Buy Back in Place
New July Car Sales Very Good above Expectations
AND SIR DROPS 20 CENTS from Tuesday's Pre-Market high by Friday. Yah it was the market's worst week since mid-2012, but still! I'm really looking at other investment ideas here for awhile or just watching for awhile. If SIRI could not at least manage a mid 3.50's for awhile anyway this week and break out of it's crusty moldy range I don't think it's going to now unless something comes out of left field positive for it. LR
Sounds like you had an experience and some very initial good draws on TH. I have only ever played that game with friends for small dollars. Only worse kind of experience is having the winning hand and not realizing it and messing up the whole thing because you over play it and not just taking the natural winnings. I once did that with an options big Call position several several years ago on the refiners thinking I could trade it back and forth like regular stock, cutting short my initial position and then somehow messing up a 300% short term gain on what would have been a large gainer for me. It was not too much fun and like you say a very fine line to play out. Sometimes the worst thing is thinking you know 99-100% what will happen and then it does not.
Sometimes you just lose even with great cards. A plan B is nice to have IF IT IS AVAILABLE.
For SIRI it is becoming less evident to me what is available to it to give it a boost. The service is still ok and relevant, but I could see them with all the technologies out there lose that potion fast… if they don’t care. Thanks for your postings.
" If this trend continues or if it accelerates in the coming weeks, you will see the number of BB in the market drop dramatically and one of the key drivers in the relentless upward trend in the S&P (share BB) will disappear. In SIRI's case, I would consider this a positive development though I recognize few of you would agree with me." Duke why would you consider the BB's going away for SIRI to be a positive development?
Nobody seems to be calling for any major correction. I mean I see chatter that some minor correction could occur in the next 3 months a la Goldman Sachs based on a selloff in government bonds. I guess that means they see rates going lower and others also. I just keeping thinking at the end of QE1 we got about a 16% sell off and at the end of QE2 near 20% over a few months time. Now we are going to find out if the tapper experiment works. I thought it was extremely telling that Yellen had her eyes on the market and warned about small cap, biotech and internet stocks. When have you ever heard a Fed Chair say something like that?
So what happens after QE3 or whatever the current QE is? I'm not too sure there is a QE4 or a next one anytime soon. I think with some of the new Fed chairs, Fisher in Dallas there is less belief in it.
I think SIRI works a way somehow to get to your possible area of 3.6 or above. How long they could stay there I think you have already guessed. So how were your card games? LR
WWT, I do think 3.60 or close is coming. I think it is coming shotgun wedding style and it ain't gonna be pretty but will be there. Other numbers, I don't know how many times they can let the air out of these tires but it looks like one of those flat tire dàys again choking on 3.48 again fooling you 3.50 was just around the corner.
I think FB has a Good earnings report today. Don't know where that takes it but I do think they have some good things going on there. Maybe this S&P has a date with 2025. I don't think it has much more gas in it than that this year. That Ten Year keeps ticking down even though the Fed is expected to Raise Rates sooner than anticipated. What's up with that?
If the refiner group corrects more it will start looking attractive again. Like VLO and WNR and PSX. Usually after 10/1 the group really picks up on seasonality.
Looking forward to what Duke says about earnings if any. My guess they find a way to keep the thing moving +
WWT, not quite 3.47, but close. Maybe we do get an earnings run in here. But like I says it's going there in slow motion time lapse and being dragged by it's heals there.
So this keeps the party going until November or until they get a debt downgrade? The stock price hasn't exactly been on fire since the announcement. Still acting in the goofy nonsensical being dragged a little higher way by it's teeth. Market booms Friday and it goes nowhere. Would like to hear your earnings prelude next week. Thanks!
Frank, I think they make it to near 3.60 area now whether it makes sense or not. Ya we'll have to watch the funding.
Yah, it seems harder and harder to post to Yahoo boards anymore. I think SIRI is just very difficult here. I'm not all that optimistic but I think SIRI could see some earnings run and make it into the 3.50 area and run-off as well. It's just watching it it's a slow motion photography kinda thing.
The mo-mo names getting hit again. Will FB go to new lows for the year later on? I think that one would be a good one to buy up as well as TSLA. I'm tempted to buy some puts on the S&P 500 but not there yet.
AA earnings did alright. There were not many earnings pre-announced issues. The QE3 liquidity thing coming to an end for now by October is the biggest concern with growth not as robust as thought coming in 2nd.
Would the Fed have the stomach to attempt a QE4? I don't think it is a good idea at this point myself so when this current round of QE ends you just have to wonder will the real growth please take a seat and let us hear your story.