50 DMA = 3.89 and 200 DMA is now = 3.89, something is crossing and it does not look constructive.
Well made my play before earnings as did not want to get too fine with it. Maybe that will work out. Bought the $4 puts out to June. They are so thinly traded but they have worked for me twice now. Easier to get into than out. I don't think we get another rate increase until this market goes through this cycle. Just hope they don't do negative interest rates. I think that is such a bad idea. Maybe 1947 was as high as it gets. Was expecting at least the 1973 area, so it so many places.
How could SIRI have guided up in this market. Got to wonder about when they pull the trigger on the tracking stock now or even scrap it. GL-LR
Frank, looks like the better idea is to go short after earnings. I jumped in late last week so my play is set for now for what I am wanting to do. Think it will work out but I think the 3.82/83 area after earnings is probably the better idea. I think I was right until Japan went to negative rates. Bad idea IMO and hope US does not do same later down the road. The auto stock group still looking shaky. GL on your trip.
Some good individual plays are still out there to the upside. Just have to be very careful. AMZN did surprise me.
I think the stars are lining up pretty negative in the near term. I have been watching the Shanghi Composite along with oil and the SC is down something like 24% just in January alone! I thin k some currency thing is gonna cause another FC. AMZN big miss, . Auto Nation had a big miss today also and the whole auto group was down.
I was on board with the S&P getting back to 1960-1980 area but I have recalibrated and don't think it can make it now. I think next week is going to be a bad week for the index. But hey the super bowl is coming up. GL-LR
Hey Frank, I decided to cover a few days back as it looked like SIRI at least headed to the 3.82/3.83 area (that it did not make) and then played SPY to about even success with all the back and forth. I'm looking to short again before earnings and probably tomorrow. My technical service says to short that whole auto group F, GM, KMX and AN. They have all been really beat up last few months. I don't think this market (S&P) can hold much water near the 1900 level for much longer and then I think 1750/1760 area is next level down. I don't know what rabbit SIRI can pull out of their hat now unless Karl Ichan wants to take a stake. Ha and not doing so well with FCX. SIRI could have a decent report but how will they guide up? At this point I would rather own F at least it pays a nice dividend.
I really can't see this market going back to mid S&P 1950 for much longer than part of day the way it acts now. GL
Gundlach really spoke his mind the other day and you have to wonder if the Fed blinks a bit on it Wed. Probably not, I think either way tighten or ease up both send a bad Fed message now. The mess is baked into the cake now and I think all they can do is modify it a bit at most. The market seems so fragile right now to. Nice bull move today but as soon as the API Tuesday oil inventory kicks in and APPLE not so super positive the futures are already tanking.
I will probably go back to the well to work a SIRI trade that has worked really nicely for me twice in the past six months. If things get set up for it, I'll do it again. GL in this wild west market.
WWT, I feel a whole lot more comfortable playing for the downside than the up in this market. I don’t think the FANG group can save this market, but FB earnings should be good Wed. and AMZN you think have to be great on Thursday. I played some upside on SPY today and got burned a bit. I should have payed more respect to the oil thing as it got crushed, but thinking a bounce was in order still. If the S&P breaks 1867 again then I think we make a new low, again to.
When Duke gave his bear market end prediction I though this October date was an early end to the bear myself. I’ll be glad to see it end though this year if it does. I see so many contradictory market predications going on out there, not funny. GS saying 11% upside from here, others saying to short every bounce. It’s a bit of the wild west out there. For the most part I am sticking to the short side when it makes sense. GL
Frank, I agree on the oil. Last time the contract switched went up a couple of dollars also I noticed. The few dollars percentage gain looks big when it is already down so much. I ended up covering and taking a small loss to recalibrate early next week on a short. I'm thinking that 3.82/3.83 area could be hit, but at 3.65 I think is safe to hold and just a pit stop on way down again.
WWT, no problem. Taking notes is a good thing. F, GM, AN, KMX still not acting well with a big tape up. SIRI moving up on weak volume and big downs on three times volume. I think they call that distribution. I like FB too. Market could stabilize, it's possible. 1813 broke the 2014 October low so some could think that's it for now. 2016 is going to be a tough year. I actually had puts on SIRI since October for March16 and a few for June16. But mostly March. They are so thinly traded and just surprising so few of them OI. Was glad I was able to get out of them this week at a double. Shorted a little thereafter and broke even. I like FB best of the FANG group. Good luck on that. LR
Frank still holding my new short, but down a few cents on today. Think it is possible could rally to 3.75 area. But if you look at one month S&P chart it looks like it is stair stepping down and the next step is back down & SIRI with it. GL
Covered my short today at 3.46. Been holding them since late October in 4.11/4.12 area. . Thanks for your assistance! It was a nice gainer. I don't think I would have had the conviction to do so without reading your Sunday stuff.
I see Jeffery Gundlach saying this is not stopping yet, not until the VIX gets to around 40. I think he is right and your SIRI hits 3.34 area. Only stops if Congress passes a law the markets cannot go down anymore. Same as QE4. I am watching for now and may re-short, just needed to catch my breath between all the wild back and forth. It does not feel done in the short term to me yet.
I think we are in a bear market now even though no recession yet. I agree that it does not feel like capitulation the way it is moving down. Maybe we get back to that 2043 area on a snap back. The Fed meeting EOM will be more interesting than usual as to whether they could provide any stimulus. It's way too early in the ball game for another round of QE right after a rate hike. I dread the negative interest rate talk and ideas and think that is a total disaster myself. I think we get to the 1780/820 area before any significant snap backs. I heard one chart person say the market is oversold technically until near EOM. I think it can get more oversold to.
In 2008 the S&P lost around 11% by Mid January sort of like what's going on now. Then recovered going into February for awhile. That would target the 1820 S&P level and I think we could see a few ticks lower then to break that incomplete October 2014 low.
Look at F, GM, AN, KMX & SAN, yes SAN all tanking in last few months. F had record auto sales right, has a 10 PE and pays a $4.67 dividend something that SIRI does not do Why are all these auto Co's tanking and SIRI only down 10% and we think it's a mess. Peak auto's, consumer tapped out credit cycle tightening. Ask yourself why is F not rallying. It's a better investment than SIRI if you ask me.
Start tracking F, GM, AN, KXM and SAN. They have all been trending down. We hit peak auto's. Loan requirements are tightening. SIRI follows these as well. It's following that trend.
WWT, good point. Duke mentioned in 7/5/15 post that 3.65 area was not great support on the way down and that he thought 3.48/3.52 would be hit. This was before the 8/24 event that saw 3.31. Hearing some pretty wild stuff tonight and like the bears just got out of hibernation. I think the second support level gets defended. I'm having a hard time seeing any 1620 level S&P hit right away. I'm more in the 1820/1776 level there and SIRI moving about the same. I guess we are at peak everything so the next steps are down. Still we are not in a recession so got to prove something first and we are a ways off from that. GL-LR
Hey Frank, who is DK? 3.68 is good area to cover from 4.07 on 12/31/15. I also saw that Duke mentioned in 7/5/15 post that 3.65 was poor support and that 3.48/3.50 could be hit after that as kind of a FFM between 3.65 margin call and 3.35 one. LR
Hey WWT, I've had problems at times with YH deleting some of my posts to in the last 3 months. Got to wonder what it is up with them anyway. F, GM, KMX, AN and SAN all telling a story here besides the free fall in market. Had peak auto’s in 2007, 5% unemployment and record buybacks and a market that peaked and then went nowhere. OK we didn’t have the typical blow-off top everybody was expecting. Heck we only had a 10% plus October in Market is all after a year of zero returns after the 2nd September low. I think that was the blow-off top.
I read all these analyst guys in December saying we would have a rip your face off XMas rally and beyond to end and start the New year. It’s ripping all right just not the way they wanted. WS always got to sell you something. I just think we peaked in the market, the easy fed money is not there, the money supply is slowly contracting. The next step after you reach the mountain top is not up. Climbing the mountain you use up more supplies. Going back down you move faster. We will readjust, maybe we will be better, but for now the air is thin up here and supplies more limited. We have to get to get back to base camp and light a fire. Then we can look up again. LR