Hey Frank, looks like ECB may be going to illogical round 2 with more ECB QE soon. Just gonna make our $ stronger yet again. How is that gonna work out for the world economy? I don't think that well. But my guess is they do it anyway because that's all the central bankers know how to do. The lazy mans guide to success. It works for awhile then it doesn't. LR
Maybe your other side of the range now is more true, obviously it is in a rally mode again. I liker F. Zulauf article in Barrons this weekend. I think most see an October 2014 again redux. I don't think so however, but not a recession yet. So much talk about a small increase in rates between banks. Are there any long range thinkers on the Fed or even medium term?
And that does not tell you something? Malone just loves buying these shares under $3.68. That seems to be the plan here. I don't think he's really out for the shareholders. He is not a white knight here. LR
Well maybe I should have held those more recent SPY puts a little longer to. But a P is a P. I think the current downtrend is gonna end this coming week. Maybe it goes to 1950/1920 area. I think we are in phase I and a rebound coming soon and then Phase 2 after the Fed meets.
At this point I don't think it matters that much whether the Fed raises rates in September or not. It's only gonna affect the short end of the curve anyway. Our $ will still be the strongest, since our economy is. I think the Fed has been attempting to groom the market for a raise even writing a White paper saying QE and ZIRP was not really that effective in helping the economy, so they are going there. Now can SIRI really hit 4.09/4.14? That does not make much sense to me but you never know. LR
Ha, ya I bought Puts again on the SPY a few days ago. not as many as last time. I think I will hold them a little longer but not much longer. I think the Elliot Wave LO guys 2044 S&P is gonna come close this time.
I'm guessing Duke's Mark is about half way on his range given 3.85/3.90 area on buy back. I was thinking 4.09/4.14 area might hit first. Made more sense, but maybe not now.
Interesting article's today on Tom McClellan, McClellan Index. Seems like many good chartists like it and on AAPL DC coming up. Don't usually read MW but liked those. Was also amazing again how the market dove 26 points today and nearly came back to green today like last week's 31 point dive back to green.
Sure are a lot of Duke clones floating around lately...it's like a zombie apocalypse or something. GL- LR
"Buy at 3.63, short 4.09-4.14", Pretty wide range there.. I see the 2015 estimates lowered to 10 cents from 11 this week, but Q3 and Q4 still showing at 3 cents a share estimates. I guess not everything has to add up. LR
Looks like we will get this SPY trade one more time at least. Linear one year chart of $SPX and $RUT and AAPL seem to show DC's are on the way if the up and down going nowhere continues. We can't seem to get that blow off top and maybe we won't but I think Sept and Oct will be bumpy.
Hey WWT, ya this has turned out to be one of the best trades of the year IMO. I do think however this trade is winding down. I lucked out the other day had 20 Put contracts on the SPY Wed when broke down and sold at 2060 thinking I should have hung on when hit 2052, then had the 33 point 1.5% intraday comeback, largest in 4 years. Amazing comeback IMO. And I lucked out. Sometime take a look at the $SPX and $RUT the 50 and & 200 DMA. SPY and Russell 2000. If I am seeing what I am seeing it appears in about 3/4 weeks time going the way the market is going they will have DC just like the DOW just did. I don't know how you spin that positive. All 3 major averages will have DC's if the market keeps the same kind of action Also AAPL appears the same way, almost like an index. Now if the market rallies then it gets saved, but it really has to rally above the range, not play the same game.
I like on FM how they replaced the bear Carter Worth chart guy with a Pee Wee Herman look a like perma bull chartist, and that the range has to be resolved top the upside. it might, but it also might not in time for the Fed meeting in September. I have my doubts. for SIRI the technical are very strong right now. if market would B/O so would SIRI and if not, probably not. GL-LR
You should give it a rest already. You are knocking yourself out and you just aren't that funny. Write something smart and maybe you gain some Relevance, or even a sense of reality you seem to be missing.
The S&P 200 DMA is at 2073 and it briefly slipped under this on Friday before being saved. Nice articles!
So you are saying the Mark is the same? If SIRI keeps going this way get they are going to have the same issue that the 30 Dow is gonna have in about 2 weeks and the S&P looks to have in about 5 weeks from now just in time for Sept Fed meeting. Looks like the DC's are coming. 50 over the 200. LR
WWT, the S&P pattern has worked now all the way back to November 2014 when it hit the high of around 2075 in late Nov. after the intra-day 10% sell off in Mid October. It's like the bulls and the bears can't make up their minds or there is some kind of back door contract out there.
Some other patterns working out now are the 30 DJIA looks to be headed to a DC with the 50 passing the 200 in about 2 weeks from now and the S&P the same in about 5 to 6 weeks on the current trajectory just in time for the September Fed meeting.
Another long term pattern working out I think is long term ZIRP is inherently deflationary and sooner or later the Fed figures that out or has already and they are never meeting a 2% inflation target if they keep that up. LR
There must be some problems with the collateral. I can't see this not hitting the 200 DMA now of around $3.68 and probably a little lower by next week. .After about 7+ months now since late November 2014 the S&P is up maybe 1% if you count dividends with all the record buybacks. The economy GDP grew at about a 1% clip in the first half of the year with cheap gas. Hey the unemployment rate is now at 5.3%. The Fed was gonna raise their bank rate when unemployment hit ? I forget was it 6% originally?
I think somebody said this in some obscure report.
Along with its latest monetary policy statement, the Fed also released its Summary of Economic Projections, or a broad outlook for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation.
In this release, the Fed lowered its long-run expectations for the unemployment rate, called its "central tendency," to 5.2%-5% from a range of 5.5%-5.2%. This means basically that the Fed now believes the economy will be at "full employment" when the unemployment rate is somewhere between 5.2% and 5%: in March it was 5.5%.
So aren't we at the Fed target yet? Seems to me like we are. LR
Excess Euro printing is this the ECB QE2 coming? I guess that could happen but not sure how they get away with it. I heard a funny one the other day. Probably an old saying. If I owe the bank $100,000 and can't pay I am in trouble. If I owe the bank $1,000,000 and can't pay the bank is in trouble. I am thinking the Euro maybe needs Greece in it more than they do. I really think the big test for this market is not Greece, but all the people saying the impact was minimal I don't think they got all that right. I think when the Fed makes the first rate hike that's the test of this market if it can hold up under tightening. And by the second rate hike I think there will be some cracks in the wall. Sometime in 2015. I think you got it right on the collateral thing to. LR
The services I look at say it is a short most of the time. I was looking for the stick save but beginning to wonder. I guess you are talking about the SA guys as far as consultants. I rarely read them anymore. Read a few things from Raoul Pal recently I thought were interesting and insightful. Have fun with the cards.
Looking more like it wants to go down and touch the 200DMA at 3.67 area now. Maybe it gets another Stan Mikita stick save. RSI at .37.8, so not at the bottom of that yet. The service's say the trend is bearish and that it is a legitimate short. I am not short it at this time. I'm looking for the stick save... but the 200 DMA is pulling strong. Needed to be up on this rally today. LR
Driven, you guessing an awful lot lately and you guessing wrong. Whatever floats your boat.