There must be some problems with the collateral. I can't see this not hitting the 200 DMA now of around $3.68 and probably a little lower by next week. .After about 7+ months now since late November 2014 the S&P is up maybe 1% if you count dividends with all the record buybacks. The economy GDP grew at about a 1% clip in the first half of the year with cheap gas. Hey the unemployment rate is now at 5.3%. The Fed was gonna raise their bank rate when unemployment hit ? I forget was it 6% originally?
I think somebody said this in some obscure report.
Along with its latest monetary policy statement, the Fed also released its Summary of Economic Projections, or a broad outlook for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation.
In this release, the Fed lowered its long-run expectations for the unemployment rate, called its "central tendency," to 5.2%-5% from a range of 5.5%-5.2%. This means basically that the Fed now believes the economy will be at "full employment" when the unemployment rate is somewhere between 5.2% and 5%: in March it was 5.5%.
So aren't we at the Fed target yet? Seems to me like we are. LR
Excess Euro printing is this the ECB QE2 coming? I guess that could happen but not sure how they get away with it. I heard a funny one the other day. Probably an old saying. If I owe the bank $100,000 and can't pay I am in trouble. If I owe the bank $1,000,000 and can't pay the bank is in trouble. I am thinking the Euro maybe needs Greece in it more than they do. I really think the big test for this market is not Greece, but all the people saying the impact was minimal I don't think they got all that right. I think when the Fed makes the first rate hike that's the test of this market if it can hold up under tightening. And by the second rate hike I think there will be some cracks in the wall. Sometime in 2015. I think you got it right on the collateral thing to. LR
The services I look at say it is a short most of the time. I was looking for the stick save but beginning to wonder. I guess you are talking about the SA guys as far as consultants. I rarely read them anymore. Read a few things from Raoul Pal recently I thought were interesting and insightful. Have fun with the cards.
Looking more like it wants to go down and touch the 200DMA at 3.67 area now. Maybe it gets another Stan Mikita stick save. RSI at .37.8, so not at the bottom of that yet. The service's say the trend is bearish and that it is a legitimate short. I am not short it at this time. I'm looking for the stick save... but the 200 DMA is pulling strong. Needed to be up on this rally today. LR
Driven, you guessing an awful lot lately and you guessing wrong. Whatever floats your boat.
About 6 times since early March, kind of like this market to. Won't break out or down. I wonder about real GDP so far thru June and what Raoul Pal says,, recession in 2015. Then again this market is doing a good job of going nowhere. Good luck at Cards!
And 2 more months and down another 7 cents. At one time yes it was a great investment. I don't see that right now however.
Driven, you sound like some of the people that predicted that Q1 GDP would be ok. Just pointing out what is actually being reported. Not fantasy. No not the Duke, you are sooo way off there. LR
Some other numbers for Mothers day. The Atlanta Fed's new forecast system predicted that GDP Now was .1% in Q1 2015, it came in at .2% when everybody said it would probably be around 1.5 to 2%. Now with the newly reported trade imbalance estimates from last week economist predict the Q1 GDP will get revised to around -.5%. The Atlanta Fed are now saying with their GDP Now forecasting that through May 5th GDP in Q2 is .8%. That almost works out to ZERO Percent through today. I am wondering how Retail Sales comes in on Wednesday this week and what GDP now will read after that. Where is all the growth and money saved on cheap gas???
What changed? This may be to soon to ask this question but asking anyway. Record buybacks? No other place to go for too many investors? My feelings and observations at this point are that we carried QE too far and we don't know how to end ZIRP. Anyway you look at it when it ends it hurts with this kind of growth. Just giving big companies free capital to buy back stock and do financial engineering instead of real engineering. That is all the Fed is doing now. You would think they would have figured it out already. S&P up 2% in 5 months. I think that might be the smallest increase since the fed came to the rescue and ben split for the high life. LR
Hey WWT, been awhile. Between FB and Google right now I like FB better. You never know what Zuck will say or the new ventures but I like the kind of chances and challenges he is taking. Goog seems to have more regulatory issues right now but could do well. As for SIRI have been sitting on the sidelines mostly lately and don't know what to think. I keep doing the same 6 moths trials also ha,.ha. I cancelled for about 3 months and they were in a big hurry to sign me back up $25 style & did for now. Duke's last blog so so helpful. But still better than most.
As for his steep Spring Decline and last blog I am somewhat puzzled to his now 6/8% posed decline. Maybe so, maybe not. The market overall has not wanted to go anywhere since late November. more inclined to say a slight sell off than rally but reading a bunch nobody seems to have all that great a handle on it except to say it is a meandering market. Good Luck out there. LR
I don't know where all this QE, backdoor QE and ZIRP will end or lead us either, but my feelings at this point are not any further economically than where we are at now. With the world a wash in crazy debt how will interest rates ever be normal again? It is a wealth transfer at the wrong end of the spectrum and a big misallocation of capital. How about some positive changes in tax policy "not get ride of certain govt agencies just a positive changes" and some real capital spending on increasing business models and not on just buy backs and M&A that all ends up in the CEO's and boards pocket book. Ok that is too much, but how about heading in that direction anyway.
Questions in my mind, can ZIRP be as effective as QE? It does not seem so to me but it is effective for awhile to keep asset prices up there, apparently. Yeah something has to pop sometime. How can you continue to bid up assets with flat revenue streams. Sorry I just have not seen the economy prop up all that much. Yet my property tax bill keeps getting higher every year but my wages they are like a pancake. The property tax people tell me this is good I can sell my house and make $$, but I don't want to sell it. I actually like living in it and not flipping it.
I thought Stanely Drunkenmiller interview on Blombergxx were very good recently and worth listening to. I think your hard correction you predicted earlier is down the road if it comes. This experiment with ZIRP and now negative bonds is out of control and I don't see how that ends up well. I think it has recession printed all over it unfortunately.
The market seems to be on the verge of making a new high riding the coat tails of China, Hong Kong and Europe. I think you are going to see your 2175 this spring. If first you don't succeed try try again...they say.
Jim Paulsen-Mid Caps pointing to a large overvaluation
Stan Druckmiller-doesn't like this end of the risk curve
. Timing ???
. Richard Wyskoff (UTAD)
. Chinese Hot Market
. Hong Kong Hot Market
. European "Vacation" Hot Market
. Emerging Market Issues
. El Erian-Mostly in Cash
. . Jamie D-Another Crisis
. $ USD +
Very Very Complacent
S&P "Real" Earnings
Actually was a great game to watch and nice comeback by Duke. I was pulling for Wis since my team NU is now in the Big whatever it is now, but Duke really proved tough down the stretch when it counted. LR
Well I guess you have to respect the price action. It may not make sense for the market to correct here, but it also does not make much sense for it to rally either on poor data. If a correction is coming my 2 or 3 cents is that it's later on, maybe later in summer. No yield anywhere, expectations are low, maybe most in S&P beat by 2 cents again with buy backs in place. I don't see much real concern here by the major publications, just the usual caution and maybe we test the lower range of the averages. You will get scolded if you attempt to call a top and right now the market is in a in between place. Still it's gone nowhere since last November 2014...LR