Frank have a good holidays as well,Just looking at the price movement without knowing much else, SIRI is in a bad trend and confirming it is in the long term downturn versus the intermediate down trend Duke spoke about. SIRI has hit 3.06 or lower in 4 out of the last 8 trading days. It’s making lower lows and lower highs now the past 2 weeks. I see one service that says Stay Short and another better technical service I use that says Avoid the stock. So you take your pick. Nobody says just jump right in the pool. You would think it’s gonna hit that 2.90 gap. It sure seems to be pointed that way. My guess would be on earnings day.
Will they rally the stock in anticipation of the buy back or earnings? Was the 3.24 print on 4/11 the anticipation rally? That sure fizzled out. I do not see any daily trend going on anymore either like there was for awhile of 4 days up and 4 days down going on. Anyway I also did not see a sign post up ahead that said $2.90 is right around the corner. That move is probably gonna be more like a pothole that you don’t see and you end up driving through. GL-LR
I really think VLO will hit $58 before earnings on 4/29. I think the market will keep on rallying basically until about next Friday 4/25 the week before the Fed meets on 4/28 & 29 and GDP for Q1 gets announced on 4/30 also. Maybe on earnings day 4/29 VLO hits $60. I just no way see $48 before earnings now. A roll back of $8 is too much unless the market tanks. If this market continues to rally, which I think it will temporarily another week then $58 is here. LR
Like an old re-run of Maxwell Smart and 99 and the ah-hah the old double reversal strikes again.
AH, I am pretty sure you get 55.91 before the report. I was leaning myself that way. I think this wacky markets rallies on last fumes into next week and then we have to watch out. Fed FMOC and probably 4th tapper and we are then down to a half Fed stoked market. We are still basically where we left off at 1850 S&P with the stoking we have now. Probably a crummy GDP number hits at end of month right around when VLO reports. I don't know how it affects VLO but forward looking gas is probably gonna go down, one more taper in thè bag and crummy GDP end of month gives me more thought 43-48 after earnings later on.
It's playing a pretty cute game today retracing to the 50% line of the range and could resolve itself higher. It looks to leaning that way but I don't like the volume and the next few days will be telling. Maybe on earnings day it makes up it's mind.
WW, appreciate the reply. Happy Easter coming up by the way. Anyway I have a dumb buy in at 3.15. Could be worse. Geez you gotta watch this thing at all hours of trading ha to get some clues. I thought you were gonna tell me there was an outside reversal on SIRI to like the S&P a few Fridays ago. HA I shouda listened more carefully on that, but for a short time it looks like the market will rally and will make things interesting parking itself up to near the magic 50 DMA line. What's bad about that is SIRI is falling in the mitts of this 2 day rally.
D also mentioned 4 day patterns recently and if I am counting right, this is day 1 of the trend it is in. But one thing about being too sure is you gotta sometimes watch out from acting too sure. However none of this looks good right now for SIRI and my best guess is the GAP is very much in play. It just surprises me right here and right now on Gapology 101. I saw nothing today in the AH’s on the B/A thing but the trend is not pretty. GL-LR
Hey WWT, what signal? I'm looking at 4 day cycles, gap and overall I don't have a good feeling here. How does this fit in with the LM buy back scheme of things? I think we are in day one of another cycle. I'll let you guess which direction. My other question what gives it a lift? We can hit 2.74 yet can we?
Hey Mate AH...your approach is good. My main thought is I don't think there is TIME enough for VLO to go back to 43's if it's gonna make a late April/early May 50"s+ run, but 40-47 yes is possible. Fed meets 29-30 of April, GDP comes out on 29Th of April to I think. Both of those events could very well be downers for the market.
What else do we know? Well last year with full party Fed supplies we hit +30% on the S&P. This year with 3 tappers in we are now down about 1&1/2 % from 2013 year end through Mid April. The party seems to be wearing out from my perch and observation. Still VLO is one of the winners. This is not Twitter or YELP.
I'm looking out for lower numbers but in the higher end of your range. If it hits 43 before earnings I have a feeling the market hit a very rough patch to get it there. LR
WWT, yes you were sure right on the outside reversal. Last Thursday's 40 point down day after the before day's S&P 20 point move up on Wednesday sure was one sudden and sneaky move down. The market complexion has really been changing dramatically and now has some pimples on it, so I guess it needed a good wash. So I don't know where Duke’s IRA market liquidity move up is anymore, but I would strongly interject at this point it is now a downward move. Maybe it is just a powerful rotation move going on from the momo stocks to the conservative ones but who the heck is leading this market?
The next FMOC meeting is end of April on the 29th and 30th and 1st quarter GDP is being reported on 4/29. I heard Jeremy Siegel a big bull state it could come in around 1% in Q1 and that’s Ok if we buy the weather thing and believe we have 3% to 4% growth going on for the rest of the year. And is that really gonna happen? I don’t see that. I think we could get a dead cat bounce early in the week next week and then more pain ahead and S&P testing its 150 DMA and more likely the 200 DMA around 1790 and 1760. So is SIRI headed to 3.40 again on the overshoot? Maybe? It is funny it is holding up so well when the rest of the market is not. I know you don’t short but it may be a good shorting opportunity.
At any rate it think it is funny, but not hah hah funny how quite the pundits get during a correction and how noisy they are during the momo runs. GL-LR
Yahoo just raised the estimate again buy 1 cent to $1.46. OK it is just one cent but it is going up. The market looks to be in peril, will VLO hold up? I am asking myself that question daily. But I am not asking IDP as I think he wants everything in the universe to go down to make him happy. LR
Gas just went up over 15 cents in few days here in North Texas from $3.44 to $3.59 and plus a gallon. The market sure was slammed here today. I am hoping this is not 10% correction time now down about 3.5% in a few days. Next more few days will be telling. GL all.
WWT your S&P problem is still there. Ouch! A very neurotic market going on with too much Emo and drama here. Every time it pulls it's head above the + line it gets the wack a mole treatment. Giving me grave doubts now about a 1900 run.
WWT, it was one heck of reversal for sure, and I don't see how DG helps many people with his comments their either. I think with the money flow right now being liquid for now the heavy participants see one more opportunity for a rally.
Will SIRI just stay in it's range D mentioned? Can JM's possibly say something moving on the 4/24 CC? I have one thought about moving news. What about that special hum (independent) committee on the buy out offer LMCA/SIRI formed? They are still floating around out there in outer space with Zero Gravity. What if someplace down the line they land back to ground and say a SIRI fair offer would be around $3.80 ish? That would make the price jump temporarily. Just a thought.
I see Yahoo has Q1 VLO EPS estimate at $1.45 currently. They have been steadily raising the estimate. Do you think the earnings announcement on 4/29 will be a slight beat, a substantial beat, or a miss? I think they have a substantial beat myself. LR
Frank , Ya not the best close. I thought I saw 3.05 hit in the AH. I see Duke's note that it hit the Fib retracement. I will say this I think we will be Ok on the buy, but not happy I sold my SIRI yes "puts" too soon yesterday. Was a modest Puts buy but I pulled the trigger too soon.
The character of this market has really changed. If it makes it out of April with a rally it is doing good. There seems to be some really pressured selling going on.
IDP, then why do yahoo earnings estimates keep going up for this Q for VLO because they are just a bunch of dummies right? Why does S&P rate VLO a 5 star stock? Why do you always bash here on VLO, you got something personnel against them? Did they fire you for goofing around at work and posting you’re bunches of BS all the time? You seem to make this thing against VLO very personnel. Your accuracy rating is not too hot but I think you already know that dude.