Not to get too picky but the correction low for SIRI was $3.35 on 2/5. So what is the range for SIRI??
3.35 to 3.68 JM's CAP or 3.35 to 3.86, it's Euphoria buy out high? Ok I got it, never mind, Thanks!
The interesting quote of the week for me was Charles Plosser comments about QE...
"I am very worried about the potential for unintended consequences of all this action. And it's very difficult for us to know because we've never done this before," Plosser said, adding that the curbing of this extra liquidity in the global economy would be "very challenging".
Plosser told CNBC that the U.S. was still suffering from "lasting effects" of the recession and "may never return" to its previous growth rates—and warned that policy should not bet on growth returning to previous rates, saying it could be "many, many years."
Ok, Plosser is a hawk and not the head of the Fed but it cracks me up that the Fed is not even certain how all this QE works. The Fed puts all this liquidity out there in the financial system and when they want to haul it back in it is not the US financial institutions complaining about it, it is the emerging market countries complaining about it the most. I don’t think the market is going to suffer a 1987 style correction but I don’t think this baby steps taper is gonna save the market from at least a 10-12% correction when it is done. I know I will be tapering back my pension index funds in the market at least by midyear cause I just don’t think we can avoid some consequences of coming off of QE.
If you want a great track record just go with the Berkshire Hathaway B stock or even the A if you can do it, if that it what you want and forget about it if a mutual fund investment is what you are looking for. At least both made like a 2% move today in a big up market. I think I saw SIRI finish even.
AH, great recap. With the Ukraine thing going on and getting worse you may see your low in next few weeks or even this week. I don't think the inverse H&S is gonna be a positive if that WTI/Brent keeps narrowing like it is even if it is just headline news.
Duke, no I don't want a LM mutual fund. That ain't no fun. Looks like the market is not gonna like the China PMI print over the weekend either. I thought after it cleared the 1850 S&P hurdle it was clear for awhile. Doesn't look like it now. Fed meets 3/18 & 3/19 to and I don't know how many times they have to tell people they plan to stay with the taper plan. LR
I am not sure yet it's a go to go long the refiners. It was a big slide back down to here. Last year they said the chart of the S&P 500 compared to the chart of the 1987 and they got a 30% up market out of that. Now this year it is the chart of 1929 they want to compare. If they just got one decent correction out of these charts I would be impressed. The only thing I feel fairly certain about is when they back out the QE out of the market and we are in the part of the year when pension funds and IRA money are not being funded in to the market more steadily to meet the filing due dates there is a more likely greater risk environment. I do think the overall market is headed up to 1900 here in the next month. I am impressed it shrugs off bad news or bad data and the weather reason keeps holding.
The 3 month chart looks like it could be an funky H&S to me with the neckline at around or under 48 and maybe it comes back to form the other shoulder at about 50 or maybe it does not. I'll watch the stock and see what it tells me. LR
Note to self...the Cat just walked across the 1850 S&P line and here comes 1900 would be my guess. I'm in the camp of rolling corrections until late in the year. I thought it was funny last year they compared the chart of the 1987 crash to the S&P that went up 30% and this year it is now the 1929 chart. If they just got one decent correction out of these chart comparisons I would be more impressed. LR
I think it is as AH states it more about market dynamics than economics more than anything and the narrowing WTI/Brent spreads. These refiners get hit hard when they are hit. See the short Barron's article today on refiners that is the top line locating wether accurate or not. The perception is that margins are decreasing. It's a mo mo market out there.
Jet I looked at March last year and wondered if there was anything fundamentally going on in that time to causing refiner swoons. I did not get an answer but I do see the spreads have narrowed but understand there is more to it than WTI/Brent. Look at MPC in last few days if you think VLO got hit.
Hey AH what is the last date to get in HFC to get the 3/5 divvy. Don't you have to own it like three trading days before so you have to own it by Friday 2/28 probably to be holder of record? LR
AH, the next two days will be very telling. All sorts of Fed speak Thursday and Friday with Yellen and supporting cast. Then GDP on Friday and all sorts of PMI and sentiment indicators. My guess is we are the cusp of about a 2/3% market pullback from the break your neck snap to near highs. Then after that I think this market right or wrong is onto new highs in March and April with minor corrections. Later in your when QE evaporates is when we need to really watch out and see if the patent can now walk on its own.
I'm thinking market misinterprets Yellen and GDP only so so. Yes the 10 year means something with folks watching from the sidelines. If we do hold over 1850 S&P I think coast is clear for awhile. GL
AH, other. I can see VLO roll back to around the $48 area and your 48-52 range in play. I'm having a hard time seeing it in next month going much lower but it can happen we both know that. Is there anything fundamentally that happens to refiners in early Spring that drops then off like last years after 3/4 area swoon. Is there some fundamental change other than market tides working against or for them then in early Spring? Wondering and looking at last year...maybe too much.
I backed out today and I am just watching. It may make it to 53.91 here. I am watching two things. The refiner group and S&P. We have been in such a bull mode since the 6% pullback. The S&P seems to be parked at the doorsteps of Yellen. You can see the S&P engines purring waiting for more green light, my gut says I don't think they are going to get all that from Yellen this time. I think we see a bit of a pullback and then onto new S&P highs. Maybe back like 2% from here S&P wise. It's just my guess and I am holding back for the Thursday dog and pony Yellen show. If the S&P makes a new high close then it is off again and VLO marches with it. I am not sure fundamentals support the refiners move here. The spread is narrowing and maybe oil has peaked for now. LR
AH, VLO kinda peaked last year on 3/4 and then was pretty much downhill after that and bottomed about mid April. It had a high ride from last December to that early March area. Why do you think this year is different and VLO makes a comeback this time when it did not really that much last year? By mid May VLO picked up but after 3/4 there was mucho downhill. What is different now? Fundamentally is there something different. Us I agree on the MM manipulator out there. LR
WWT, if we do a market retracement here Yellen is going to have to say something on Thursday it does not like. The market has been very catty to start the week dancing around the S&P 1850 line. I really wanted to ride SIRI most of last year to new highs and beyond and would have preferred that but it did such a rope a dope it put me to sleep and I went to the refiner group to look for gains. Geez even a bankrupt Airliner "AAL" made a 50% plus out of bankruptcy and a merger with in 2 months time Dec 13 to Jan 14 over SIRI's move in one year that is on top of great improving auto sales right and a S&P up 30%. There is something wrong with that. Really wrong.
Anybody got any other great mergers being worked on they know of going on out there? LR
Ah, I have doubts about a 43er before VLO next earnings, but strange things can happen. The refiner group is so strong right now. VLO appears to want to at least touch its 52 week high again in this round the way it is going. Coming back 10 from there would really take something. I don't think it is destined until 2nd half of this year now to go back that far. My 2 cents.
D, not for now, too much liquidity still out there, still most of QE3, pension money and IRA money coming and into the market. I think we will just see rolling small corrections until later in Spring. If we get a big correction IMO it is more toward the EOY when the QE3 comes out and then no more than a 20%er. That's bad enough but no crash. About a week ago it was reported this current market has deviated from the 1929 chart that was floating around the net.
Those HO's do seem to tell a warning or at least the market makers are giving themselves hand signals of a sea change with the clusters. There have been three significant HO clusters since last May 2013 and within 40/45 days of each one the market has had about a 6% correction which is about the most we have seen in the QE3 round. And after each also the market bounces back very quickly just like in this January 14 off and now touching highs again in Feb. We are gonna make some new highs in this first half or first quarter of 14 whether we like it or not. That is the way this market is setting up. LR
I work in taxes to and pension plan tax issues. That is my specialty for last too many years. Not an attorney, but I deal with enough tax attorneys on my regular day job that always want to bifurcate things or some issue. I am a semi experienced investor but still a novice in a lot of areas with an MBA in business, and finance was one of my favorite subjects I majored in. I enjoy reading the Duke and like his contrarian options and insight. If nothing else it’s a good learning experience rather than always reading a bunch of cheerleaders for the stock or crazy doom-dayers. LR