Fed Blinked and maybe your scenario works. I got a very funny reading on my technical service for SIRI today even thought it went up 8 cents. The money flow keeps going down for it and overall not that positive.
The cheap gas is nice but when you see something like that down the street regular gas at 2.11 that does not spell robust growth.
Ha, that is a good one! Today was a real fool you kind of day. Tomorrow should be a better one. Think Fed keeps the considerable language or something like that. Seems to be their 3rd mandate that is unspoken.
Frank, GL, I think the mark is very much in site. Sold all mine prob a bit early but can't complain. I may just short it for a very short bit to the mark area.
Frank, got out of my puts today. Looks like it wants to at least hit the mark again. We'll see if some Fed Speak can turn this around by Wednesday. My thinking is the Fed will put off a rate increase and the market will like it for now.
Not to get anyone too excited...
:In 1986, the United States economy began shifting from a rapidly growing recovery to a slower growing expansion, which resulted in a "soft landing" as the economy slowed and inflation dropped. The stock market advanced significantly, with the Dow peaking in August 1987 at 2722 points, or 44% over the previous year's closing of 1895 points. Further financial uncertainty may have resulted from the collapse of OPEC in early 1986, which led to crude oil price decreasing by more than a half by mid 1986."
I have to say you tee'd that one up well. I just did not catch it enough. After their initial decline from mid 40's to 30's and not getting hit that badly in Mid October I watched them but that was it. Yes that was rather amazing.
Interesting and well written research on oil market history. I will have to look at that more. I suppose the Fed will say something magical again next week and the market will react to their magic beans story. Of course all this oil decline and cheap gas is great for the economy-right? How can they raise interest rates now? The 10Y doesn’t seem to believe them. We are in a deflationary period now or starting one if I see gas down the street in the low $2’s. People are signing Christmas Carols to that.
I’m in the Frank trade also (Ha same trade, Jan Puts) wanting to exit before the fed finishes meeting this next week. Yes I had to wonder about your 2175 S&P prediction last week. I thought maybe you were joking a bit there. I see they say they sighted a cluster of 6 HO's in the past 7 trading days. It’s been very predictive here of late. I don’t want to be in this market on the plus side come mid-January 2015 and with the QE backed out it could be more than the usual 5-7% HO thing.
In the late 70's the oil/gas thing had me concerned enough to buy a Chevette as my first new car purchase back then. Drove it all the way down to TX where I settled later on. LR
Meant 38.2% idea. I'm onboard with that possible move between 1977 and 2000 but market players really putting on a fight or show for now. The Fed creating this oil bubble? Nah that could not have happened like that.
CONNS, down 42% today wow. So far SIRI fighting off the bugs and maybe your .32 earlier idea is right. Don't like those HO confirmations coming due mid January to a store near you. Looks to much like last Dec/Jan.
Frank, ya I think oil can still go lower. The refiners are an interesting play in this but they do cut back and forth considerably and are not an in as pleasant a mood as they were last year at this time. But I think they will still make out OK. Today was not a good day for them.
At least SIRI moved more than the usual 2/3 cents in it's sleepy clumsy upward pattern for a change on a bit more significant volume. We'll have to see if more is in store. I like WWT's scenario actually but this market is a stumper.
My take, my 2 cents worth is that the market grinds along slightly higher here through year end. Maybe the S&P will see a 2100 print by then 12/31. If the crummy report on the Black Friday week poor retail sales would not garner at least a 2/3% pullback I don't really see what will pull back this market short of some major black swan event before year end anyway. Now I see there has been 3 HO sighting in the last 4 trading days as reported by Zero Hedge. When I saw that I thought HO December deja vu & Part 2. Last year Dec. 13 there was a significant cluster of HO occurrences in the 2nd week and then we saw the second half of January 2014 sell-off. It looks "the market" to be setting up for the same kind of deal again like around mid-January 2015. 2015 could see more PB early since this the fed is out of QE. I think Bill Gross has it right. More debt does not cure large debt.
Duke, WWT & Frank, Have a Great Thanksgiving... still not sure where SIRI is going, can go either way. This market is need of a rest and maybe I am to. I'm thankful for a lot and for all your comments and ideas. LR
I do think there is a market hiccup before end of year but like Duke says probably in the 38.2% of recent move varity type. Unless there is some wild card “river card” not played here SIRI just wants to keep punching higher. In one technical service I pay for and one I look at that is free, one says to short it-pay for; the other says to stay long-free. Yep I am still uncertain about it and if I play, I will play from the lower end if it comes. Right now I am looking at and working with the refiners though they are difficult to work with and cut backwords a lot as they move up. Usually this time of year is very good for them.
Hey WWT good to hear from you. SIRI does keep getting pushed higher and in a funny way. In active trading it keeps pushing, pennies higher mostly, with current market up moves and the S&P and in the AH it fades a few cents every day only to pick right up where it started in active trading.
Ha, I am sort of lost with SIRI. I did short it and got out mostly around the 3.20 area on the quick market down move. I don’t see how it gets to even the 2.90 area in any way easy here now, been attempting to figure that one out.
I do think there is a market hiccup before end of year but like Duke says probably in the 38.2% of recent move verity. Unless there is some wild card “river card” not played here SIRI just want to keep punching higher. I one technical service and look at a free one. One says to short it; the other says to stay long. Yep I am still uncertain about it and if I play, I play from the lower end if it comes. Right now I am looking at the refiners though they are difficult to work with and cut backwords a lot as they move up. Usually this time of year is very good for them.
My sense is that they kicked the correction can down the road with the Central Bank talk and some desperate moves by BOJ and the ECB...but not as far as they think. For SIRI I have lost my sense on what's going on there. I covered all a while back. Maybe WWT had the best idea that the game plan would be changed and watch out for $4 by EOY. It looks to be on a path to retest the 3.60 area once more. How much the diluation factor plays in I can't judge from the converts. Maybe JM has a message for them. I'm watching the ballgame from the sidelines here. LR
For what it is worth, the markets managed to kick the can down the road, with Bullard talk, BOJ QE and Draghi speak. I don’t think however they kicked it as far down the road as they think they have. The Q3 earnings beats were slim even though at a high percent of beats and guidance was generally poor. We don’t have 2% inflation yet, but we do have 20% annual food inflation going on so go figure how that works. The retail stores are opening earlier and earlier for TG and starting weird sales already. By my estimates annual GDP is gonna end up booking in at under 2% for 2014. Your currency issues are getting worse. Our Ten Year T is still very close to the 2.3% mark even with the Fed saying beware of market volatility later on in 2015 after we start raising the short term rates. We hit new highs on all the major averages something not done since March 1998 last week. We are having a market party right now with the Republican victories, and I don’t think we have seen much of any down day since the sell off except for maybe one day that was meet with a better up day next.
So the "can" is rolling around out of the way for now. But how far did they really kick it?
As for SIRI, maybe 3.50 is the top for now. It seems to be losing some traction again. LR
Ok, since I got out it (covered) it didn't recover at the end of the day like it has been doing for a week. This market is on the waco up side but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt right now. I think in 5 to 10 years Japn will go bankrupt. They can keep kicking the can down the road but the road is getting shorter for them. Too little inflation is bad, too much is also, Can't sustaian that debt load. We better stay out of that situation ourselves.
Frank I covered on SIRI my 1/3 left. To me it looks like it's going back to the 3.6 area. Been doing this pattern since earnings of selling off 4/5 cents in the A/M everyday then ramping back up end of day and sometimes dramatically. I'm not saying there are no concerns out there, but a different game plan appears to be in the works. Wonder if this is WWT's off the cuff knock it to $4 by the end of the year. Regardless it's moving up with the S&P and in the near term the S&P is acting too well with our low interest rate environment backdrop. LR
Hey Duke Part 3, So OK, it’s possible we make a double top here. I’m hesitant to move my 401(k) type funds back to full market throttle. BUT I don’t see the sell off here anymore either. Possibly you are right but it’s just very hard for me to see that at this point. The market is at a very funky place right now I agree. This recent move seems more like the Hindenburg move from last May/June 2013 and then the market bought it all back up quickly in two weeks time and zoomed ahead. I am thinking more now that the real market shock will be when the Fed does actually raise interest rates and who knows when that will be… Mid 2015 Late 2015? We didn’t fix the world either in the two weeks time the market went back up. I never thought I would see Embola either in my own back yard anytime soon but it was there way to close to home.
So this brings me to SIRI. I am having a hard time seeing that 2.74/2.76 print here without an S&P downer to help. Yes we will get some dilation in a month, but what if SIRI retraces it’s down move in a slow S&P year end grind move up to say around the S&P 2150 level and that allows SIRI to go to that $3.60 level again? That scenario looks to be possible on the table to me as well. The cheap gas here for awhile has to be a big plus for consumers, even if Russia, Iran and Venezuela are having a hard time with it. I didn’t hear anything really exciting or earth shattering on the SIRI CC and earnings and saw that S&P maintained their $4.00 price target on the stock with No Upgrade as well. But I didn’t see something to tank the stock either however…so it just drifts and moves with the S&P for now…I’m keeping an open mind but the bulls have the steering wheel right now. LR
Hey Duke Part 2, The market has made a spectacular recovery in two weeks and it is tough work finding a bear around willing to make any kind of negative call. Maybe there could be some market slight hiccup with the mid-term election but with the usual buy but buy the dip call coming right behind it. Now I don’t think the US economy is all fixed and I still think there is significant work needed to be done. Extreme monetary policy has bought us some time but I don’t think we have used it all that wisely. To me stock buy backs are ok but they don’t structurally solve any problems. That’s the best use we can make use of all this fee cash in the system?!! I see lot’s of small businesses having a hard time. I see people having significant issues with the new insurance. I see flat incomes and see people having a hard time out of the workforce finding a decent wage job and I see Macy’and Kohl’s thinking they need to open at 6 PM on Thanksgiving to be relevant to shoppers. And then there is the Ten Year T still hovering around the low 2.3% mark.
Welcome to our new normal super low interest rate between banks, but yes department store credit cards still get to charge you 20% + percent on your account so buy buy buy. The consumer does not look to be doing so hot in that 3.5 % GDP print coming mostly from defense spending by the US and if I add in the negative 3% aberration weather print in Q1 and 4.5% GDP in Q2 that brings us to an annual cumulative GPG rate of (-3 + 4.5=3.5 =5/3) = (1.7%) with Goldman Sacks lowering their 4th Quarter GDP estimate to 2.20%. So annually we are hovering at an under 2% GDP at about where the Fed is tracking that inflation to be as well and they don’t like it.
Hey Duke Part 1, you have layed out a good argument about SIRI’s long term downtrend over the past year since later 2013. It has made sense. Your market predictions have been good also. Something did happen from later September to Mid-October and we got a 9.8% intraday correction and about a 7%er end of day to end of day. I think if the S&P had tanked another 4 to 5% when it hit 1820 SIRI would have probably gone down to 2.88 or 2.98 anyway and most likely have closed that 2.90 gap.
Now the S&P 500 has retraced 197 points or nearly 100% of its loss. In that time the market if you caught that falling knife at near 1820 has gone back up 10.8%! While SIRI has gone from 3.14 its recent low and now back up to 3.43 this past Friday with the zoom at a 9.2% clip. So SIRI is tracking the S&P move fairly closely. Now SIRI did not make any great move on earnings day and retraced a bit of a gain with a 2 cents loss but since then has been making a slow grinding move up and now is within 17 cents of retracing the loss from the 3.6 area.
This story reminds me of the boxer movie "Raging Bull". Is this market gonna really rally all the way through the rest of the year and we end up like at 2150 on the S&P EOY? Somehow that does not seem right, but if it fought through all this then, so maybe so. I'm having to recalibrate my thoughts on SIRI here to.