IDP, "Lets look at VLO. I am totally convinced VLO did not pay all their expenses until they closed their books. After they closed thier books, they paid their expenses" I don't agree with your statement at all. It is just pure speculative BS on VLO cheating on expense booking.
I do think this market is in need of a healthy 8/10% correction and we may see one in Q1 in 2014. We are not gonna see a catastrophic market collaspe at least not right now, not unless there is some blackswan outlier out there that Nobody can predict. I can't predict them either. One day we will al be swallowed up by some black hole from deep outer space, For now i am siding with the Fed and maybe some pullback on a real taper. What you or I say will make no difference, but this market is just not gonna crash.
IDP, very short, very short term thinking. If it was gonna tank it should have already. I admit there is a battle going on in VLO and inj the refiners as there are hitting peaks now from lows in early October. Who do you think has won all year looking at the whole year, the longs in this market or the shorts? I don't think there is any question there. LR
AH, thanks for thoughts. I think market and most refiners are on an upward tragetory till end of year and going into next. Really doing a battle to get over that 47.2 line for VLO. I am concerned about a correction in late January/early Feb 2014 later on. I think it won't be a catastrophic one, but an 8 to 10% healthy correction is coming. Not this year but in first Q next year I think there is a strong chance. Of course i could be wrong. I'm not making any IDP type statements, just think one is overdue and its very likely Fed takes its foot off the gas for a bit with stronger looking economy and this cuase an adjustment so to speak. GL, LR
Hey AH, there has been a tremendious amount of volume on VLO the last three days. What happens after it hits $48, does it turn into a pumkin? I don't think it is going to see $42 again this year again. I don't see what could drive it down more than about a 3 handle, unless oil just takes off. Anyway was an interesting week. I'm holding to. LR
Hey AH, VLO seems to be in no mans land here at present. If it closes today above or at $46 that is a good sign to me and might hit 48 after that on a good jobs report or shortly. If it closes 45.39 or lower than I think we are going to see lower prices on it. That was some volume on the stock yesterday to at 18 mil. Corrections will be swift and bought up. I see the WTI/Brent came in a little more today but RBOB keeps going up. I'll just have to have the closing give me a better idea of short term ideas. LR
I think tomorrow is a big key and the techincals...they just don't guide all that well when the refiner stocks starts acting up. Looking for some plus. This market could have really sold off today But it did not. S&P down 14 points at one time showed some green then small loss at the end. It is amazing sometimes how they protect the indexes. Saw a basiscally dwongarde of VLO by ZACKs and then an upgrade as well by Merrill Lynch and new price target at $59 for 2014. It's a battle that's for sure.
IDP, you have issues you know. No way they fudged the numbers. How is your short of JPM and your long of MSFT going?
IO don't think this marekt is ready for a serious correction yet. S&P analyst thinks it could pull back to 1770/1780 level on S&P and then onto 1900 early next year. At any rate the WTI/Brent spread is closing in a little don't like that. I think the jobs number is a win/win senario set up. good number market reacts +, mediocre number about the same as the Fed will continue to accomidate. The serious 10% or more correction is next year 1stor 2nd Q IMO. This is just some mini adjustment going on. I think VLO makes it to 48 or so. Then maybe some reset as oil moves around. My 2 cents anyway. VLO acted very well today considering the rest of the refiners, so did MPC. LR
I say 48 after the Friday jobs report on Friday or Monday I think it hits. Can't see the fall to 41/42 but the refiners really move and this has been quite a run. Typical give bad retrace meant 1/3 do-hickey fake math fib numbers to go to that area. I think transCanada pipeline and Friday jobs get it to 48 area. When do you think it can hit 70? Really??? Also I want to look at LCC and ALl on the American US air merger closing this Friday and new stock opening up after 12/9. LR
TransCanda Pipeline in January sounds like a good deal for VLO and I am thinking Fridays job report is a win/win situation for VLO and the market. Good number is good, mediocre number is good for continued Fed accommodation. Maybe that is why VLO acting not too bad on a bad market day. LR
Frank what do you think of the AMR and LCC merger? I am thinking about getting into LCC later this week or the new AAL group after 12/9 merger. Yep anohter merger. We have seen that before. LR
Maybe someone should invent an Apple App to deifier the analyst code for the retail investor. That would be pretty neat. I think every company should have a govt sponsored analyst onboard whose job it is to be neutral and give an accurate rating and an assessment. It would probably work...for like 10 seconds. LR
I thought Mondays SIRI price action was on the wild side. Up to 3.86 on the roller coaster and then back down to 3.65 again. I would not have guessed that. Obviously something more is going on. January could get bumpy for the market. It would be a good stop to set things down a bit again as the new year starts.
Hey AH, P-47, John V, VLO Fan and others. Have a Great Thanksgiving, it has been a great 6 weeks for the refiners and VLO. Enjoy your advice on the board. IDP you have a place to as a 100% reverse barometer. You seem to be very accurate at that lately. Have a good one. LR
IDP if what you are saying is true the short play should be happening across the whole refiner group complex, TSO, HFC, PSX, MPC, WNR, etc. Since you really don't care about VLO one way or another can you give us the short run down on those stocks as well?