Market running in place, won't tank and just seems to be marking time going sideways. Not sure what catalyst can take the S&P to 2175 in the next few weeks as all the data seems so mediocre except for jobs, which are of the lower paying variety. Maybe because there is no yield anywhere and greed. I think SIRI makes it to the $4.00 area or close next week based on new cars sales for Feb. Wow the Toyota Corolla is the US top selling sedan again now?!! What happen to the big luxury cars?
I see Moodys recently downgraded Petroabras and I think this Journalxx comment was interesting...
Still, the deepening woes at Petrobras have investors on edge about the state of Brazil’s economy, which some analysts predict may contract both in 2014 and 2015, in what would be the first back-to-back decline in gross domestic product since the Great Depression. LR
Same pattern everyday lately for S&P to. Every AM the market starts down, with futures down and then market down. Then in PM comes back to life & even or a little plus or rallies. But just about every day starts in the red. For me oil is one of the biggest keys. If oil can not keep stable neither can this market. it is trading on tranquilizers and sometimes has hallucinations from the overdose and if it goes into rehab is gonna crash for it's own good, just hopefully not too bad. LR
Jim Paulsen 1/12/2015
Stocks today historically high based on midcap valuations. Only two times higher in 51 and 69 and both followed by significant corrections.
David Kostin, 1/12/2015
From GS, 2015 S&P target 2100 end of year. If no Fed increase maybe 2300. Looks like Fed is boxed into corner to me to increase.
Byron Wien, 2/19/2015, surprise market rally in 2015 to +10% even though S&P earnings will be flat and forecasts have been lowered for earnings. Would you tell your grandmother that and to buy???
Mr. Elliot wave, as promised we are now posting our next long term target for this bull market: SPX 2530 to SPX 2630 by Q1/Q2 2016. Say it ain’t so Mr. Elliot. Is that in wave # 27 ??? LR
Hey WWT & Duke , Thought SIRI might hit 4.01 last week the way it started off. Agree with WWT the volume was not inspiring. I still think Oil is the key and Greece is the sideshow. The AAII Reading is perking up for Bulls. From TS& Jimmy & The Crew…”Yesterday, we reviewed the Investors Intelligence readings and showed how extreme they are, with four times as many bulls as bears.
Today, we found the American Association of Individual Investors' weekly survey had so few bears (17%) that I had to go back to early November to find a reading this low. At that time, the bears had gone so far into hibernation that this reading sunk to 15%”
I still see people talking about expanding market multiples for real!. Didn’t CAT, DEER, Pepsi and Coke tell us different? I like FB and it looks like a breakout for them. I am playing my favorite weapon for about the past year “The SPY”, right now Calls. I am doing some SIRI also. Ping ponging between the two seems to be working out for me for now. LR
OK, looks like I am early to the party and that's part of the game. I can fix that. I have time. Oil, yields, Greece, EM debt crisis, currency wars, commodity prices, I guess they can wait also. Thanks-LR
WWT one other thought and you probably saw this and does it mater... but "GS Goldman Sachs has stated a target of 2,100 points by year-end for the S&P 500, and Kostin reiterated this again on Monday. However, the strategist also suggested that the index could reach 2,300 points if the U.S. Federal Reserve holds back on any interest rate hikes this year." I think it's gonna be earlier based on what the great jobs report did.
"Digging deeper into the CFTC data, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch called the "long" U.S. equities trade one of the most crowded trades in the world, as were positive bets on the U.S. dollar. "
but being at this S&P level is supposed to be a very bullish sign..so we will see.
Ha, WWT seems like the perfect set up. A Bull a Bear and I'm more in-between to tell the truth, but leaning toward bear. I wrote Duke I think Oil is a key more than anything else. Maybe I'll be in on that King thing to. ya TESLA surprised me, but I just watched all that. I am not seeing any signs of panic out there. If there is they are masking it well. I didn't think we would hit 2170 or even 2100 S&P the way the market was bouncing around. However I still don't think the waters are very safe and sharks are swimming around. I may get my toes wet but I'm not diving in at this point. GL-LR
Nice call on the market at 2097, almost there & close enough and on SIRI to. My observation is; I'm not seeing any panic out there yet. Things seem pretty Ho Hum to me this weekend so far. Read a good article in Barrons about the "Currency Wars: Central Banks Play a Dangerous Game" and As nations race to reduce the value of their money, the global economy takes a hit. And a look at the earnings of the “S&P 499.” S&P earned a whole 2% without AAPL in the 4th Q.
Well I seriously wondered about how a short term rally could start and I thought oil would have to rally first if one did to ignite that, because the financials just aren't going anywhere soon. And so that happened.
So now I wonder, is it all about the Oil, or about the Rise of the US Dollar and the EM debt crisis, or about Greece and the ECB stand off or about the Ukraine conflict ceasefire working or not gonna, or about the historic overvaluation of the S&P at this point? It may be about all of these things yet we just climb that ho hum wall of worry thing. I think Oil and the commodities are the key but now I wonder if it just stops at S&P 2100 here. I don’t really care to be long here either but the market is acting like it is in a happy place. LR
Hey WWT nice call on King and the Crush. I did play SIRI a bit. Was in for a dime until about 3.66 then played for another 15/20 cents up. Was gonna just watch but changed my mind. Been getting some of my posts deleted to by yahoo here lately, don't know why? So I think it greatly depends on your market outlook. I don't like the back to back months of poor retail consumer spending reported today, I think oil is not yet done making a down move...nothing moves in a straight line. I think most of the large Central Banks have shot most of their silver bullets and they are running out of tricks in their bag of tricks if things don't go well. As for Greece I am more concerned about oil and maybe they do get a better deal but does that turn around a Euro recession, currency wars, poorer China numbers, slower world growth and an overvalued S&P based on the multiple we are now? I think not. But then again who is to say the market S&P can't hit 2100 and keep climbing. Whether that makes sense or not.
Now I see one of those crazy AH trades in SIRLAND at 3.95 marked on the board. Is that telling us one of the weird things again? LR
Thanks for addressing "The Game Theory". I think it will be tough for Greece to meet the ECB and Merkel's demands to keep austerity going with E&P. It makes more sense for a strategy to leave the Euro. Well Iceland survived after a near national bankruptcy and maybe Greece can do the same. After all the new finance minster is a Libertarian Marxist even if he is from Texas round about so he’s got to be for Liberty in some strange way right? Some in Texas want to leave the union to, but I don’t think that is great idea. However these people call themselves conservatives. I call them radicals. If oil is a bust maybe the conservatives will change their minds on secession.
I like your idea U Fake Em does not want to play by the ECB playbook. I read a lot of both ways this weekend and not so much gloom and doom as last week. But then I saw some piece on FM about high wealth individuals getting out of the EM’s and pension funds going into them. Well I guess that’s a good long term investment if you have a really long term outlook. But I don’t like the implications of that. With the super strong jobs report the Fed is now painted into that proverbial corner. They have to raise rates soon even if by a token amount while every other currency is working itself to be devalued. I don’t think that works out very well but for now the economy looks good. I think SIRI can go along for the ride.
Did the Greece finance minister talk to you recently? Very Interesting. So which big banks have all these EM loans on the books? LR
Well tee'd it anyway, lets see if they can hit it down the fairway more a bit more on SIRI. FB not much love here in the ??? Rally. But I like it anyway. But I will wait.
Hey WWT, I would have thought SIRI could have gone up 7/10 cents today on the great new car numbers but just couldn't do it. I was in for a dime from 3.55 to 3.65 at the resistance range. With good earnings per Duke it could have a breakout. I think I'm just watching on that one. I think FB is a company that could be a double a couple of years from now. I actually really like them here but would wait to see what happens after the false overall breakout. I don't think oil can keep it up. I just don't. LR
I get the E&P. I can believe in some of that going on, sure. Aren't the big banks always at the heart of the issue? One group blames it on the government and the other blames it on the banks. So much non transparency. My issue it ain’t a great timing tool. Some shoe is gonna drop though yes I believe that.
This week for first time saw three mentions of a bear market. Most of what I read was negative. The affects of QE wearing out. Wow now they tell us.
Yields are being crushed, the utilities are overbought, some things like AMZN and NFLX and burger joints flying way too high for what they reported or are. People scrambling for that yield and maybe the best thing out there Ha Ha was the TLT betting the yield gets Candy Crushed and getting 10% in January. It don’t look healthy at all, that’s all I can say. If the market were my patient I would prescribe massive doses of antibiotics right now. But then again I think we have that strain of antibiotic resistance infection going on now with the currency wars attempting to change the course and outcome. In game playing theory maybe one more rally comes into play since the TRIN is over 3.5 and everybody looking one way now. We are still in that S&P 1980 to 2060 range and basically the only way to be shaken out is to be in, so got to be in to get yours. I think Frank has it right playing the game on the sidelines watching the SB in a hotel room.
I thought the Friday session was rather crazy. A lot of indecision out there. So maybe things have changed. I think we find out next week. If the S&P breaks 1972 then I think it is breaking badly. Maybe SIRI lucks out if they beat, but the German 10 Year almost on par now with Japan does not spell growth. I was surprised with oil catching a bid and the market could not hold on. Maybe it's all part of game playing theory or maybe some people are really worried. LR
Been asking myself how the market can possibly make a new high here. I guess it is always possible. The Fed just seems to have put a foot in their mouth with their latest statement. Can they get a do-over? I'm not a pessimist but just not seeing the catalyst here. Eventually cheap oil might help the economy down the road later in the year. Hey we have the internet right???!
"Earlier this week, Fed Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren told the WSJ he wants to hold off on raising short-term interest rates until inflation shows more convincing signs of rising toward the central bank’s 2% target.
But Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Friday the surprisingly weak inflation doesn’t necessarily support the U.S. central bank keeping interest rate near zero."
Does Bullard even know what he is talking about? Whoa, he's the guy that said maybe we should hold off on ending QE back in October right, due to low inflation? Now he is defending the raise! ? You can't have it both ways can you Jimmy?
Is the Fed ready to admit defeat yet on inflation? Probably not here this coming week and our dollar will continue to get stronger in these currency wars.
Will our market continue to rally? If so, it doesn't seem to me to have much more time left on the shot clock. LR
"Obama to Propose Tax Increases on Investments" WSJ
Maybe one more reason to sell later on this year as well.
I felt the market was at a DP but that the point was heading down. Once we were at 2000 S&P again, SPY calls again. It's still dicey but feel a bit better about a short term trade. I didn't hear anybody except D suggest this call and looked at many sources. Just my 2 cents.