WWT, I do think 3.60 or close is coming. I think it is coming shotgun wedding style and it ain't gonna be pretty but will be there. Other numbers, I don't know how many times they can let the air out of these tires but it looks like one of those flat tire dàys again choking on 3.48 again fooling you 3.50 was just around the corner.
I think FB has a Good earnings report today. Don't know where that takes it but I do think they have some good things going on there. Maybe this S&P has a date with 2025. I don't think it has much more gas in it than that this year. That Ten Year keeps ticking down even though the Fed is expected to Raise Rates sooner than anticipated. What's up with that?
If the refiner group corrects more it will start looking attractive again. Like VLO and WNR and PSX. Usually after 10/1 the group really picks up on seasonality.
Looking forward to what Duke says about earnings if any. My guess they find a way to keep the thing moving +
WWT, not quite 3.47, but close. Maybe we do get an earnings run in here. But like I says it's going there in slow motion time lapse and being dragged by it's heals there.
So this keeps the party going until November or until they get a debt downgrade? The stock price hasn't exactly been on fire since the announcement. Still acting in the goofy nonsensical being dragged a little higher way by it's teeth. Market booms Friday and it goes nowhere. Would like to hear your earnings prelude next week. Thanks!
Frank, I think they make it to near 3.60 area now whether it makes sense or not. Ya we'll have to watch the funding.
Yah, it seems harder and harder to post to Yahoo boards anymore. I think SIRI is just very difficult here. I'm not all that optimistic but I think SIRI could see some earnings run and make it into the 3.50 area and run-off as well. It's just watching it it's a slow motion photography kinda thing.
The mo-mo names getting hit again. Will FB go to new lows for the year later on? I think that one would be a good one to buy up as well as TSLA. I'm tempted to buy some puts on the S&P 500 but not there yet.
AA earnings did alright. There were not many earnings pre-announced issues. The QE3 liquidity thing coming to an end for now by October is the biggest concern with growth not as robust as thought coming in 2nd.
Would the Fed have the stomach to attempt a QE4? I don't think it is a good idea at this point myself so when this current round of QE ends you just have to wonder will the real growth please take a seat and let us hear your story.
WWT, I agree better other opportunities out there. The refiner group was very good until about a week ago when the rumor that US would allow oil exports. I don't think that will really happen and actually would be a disaster for keeping gas reasonable in US. But that rumor sent the group down about 10% in two days. I'll have to look at AMZN but I think this whole market is peaking, but as cramer says there is always an opportunity someplace.
Maybe this really really slow motion action by SIRI is what Duke meant by his endless summer comment of one of his Sunday pots that got deleted. I just happen to remember it. That if you keep traveling around the world you could extend the summer but was that real. Anyway today was a sure SIRI up day, auto sales nice, beat expectations...bla..bla...bla, even with GM's massive recalls, market way6 up on decent manufacturing numbers. I don't think all of Q1 was a fluke...but we'll see. I don't think the real growth is there to support the current market multiple but the mantra what else is there still wins the day. 5 tapers in and three to go may slow the show in Kokomo. LR
WWT, except for SIRI. It's almost comical. Market up a ton on a so so day and SIRI down one or two cents and the day is not finished. Car numbers were ok. GM a surprise decent month, but it's SIRI. If I read it right this week is Dukes market peak. We'll see and if I can stay awake see what SIRI can do. It's all in slow mo black and white retro screening. LR
Ok, I forgot to mention the Refiner Group whom I have liked since Mid last year. VLO, TSO, PSX, WNR I expect will do well for awhile in this environment of an unstable Iraq. It could get very messy over there and I don't think it's just going away. Now what happens if 2nd Q GDP is not so hot? What happens when you have two negative GDP quarters in a row? I think they call that a recession. Don't think that will happen but I think the US is floating just barely above that line. Thought the buy back article on Oracle on 0 Hedge was interesting today. Anyway I think SIRI is head to upper 3.50's by next week, just seems to be picking to be picking up steam. I did not think what the Fed said this week was anything to get the market so excited either but it was bone to pick on. LR
Well in 73/74 I was in College and didn't need to drive so much and had was sooo cheap then. It did influence my choices later on and when I bought my first new car I bought a stick shift Chevette. Ha ha I drove that car down to TX when I started my new job and been there ever since in the pension plan world. I am mostly out if this market even though it seems to complacently go up a little every day. I am looking at maybe more like a possible 20% decline possible in this market later on this year. I think it is very possible. I don't like the risk/reward scenario right now. I am looking for After the fall what I would like to be in. TSLA,FB, SIRI I think they will be good choices. Right now in a little in SIRI and sitting out the rest parked in a 10Y.
Ya 73-74, if I knew college was gonna be so expensive later on I would have went for a PHD in something maybe economics who knows but man college was cheap back then. That's the real inflation.
TSLA might just be a good bet along with FB. I have one question about the E cars. I like the idea and $30K and under makes them attractive with a bit more range would be much better. Q: What happens to all those used batteries??? Do they get recycled or do they get landfilled? The need to get that Keystone Pipeline thing settled already to. My home state NE where I grew up is holding it up. LR
WWT, I think it will be a two headed whammy. 1) Phase out of QE and US and World Growth projections not meeting estimates. When QE1 ended the market slide 16%, when QE2 ended the market slide 20%. We had negative 1% growth in the Ist Q, what happens if Q2 is like 1.5%. How will the us economy make it then to even 2% for the year.
"CEOs Warn Q2 "Less Robust" Than Expected" Ok the headline is from 0-Hedge which usually has a negative slant but I don't think you need a Black Swan event to tip this market but the IRAQ stuff and oil going up certainly won't help. Slower growth than projected and QE3 coming to the end makes this market very vulnerable later on in the year is my 2 cents worth. These deleted posts are weird. Is NSA listening in to? LR
If this trading is going to be as exciting as the trading from 1/1/2013 to 4/29/2013 and then it finally broke out on 4/30/2013. Then by 5/15/2013 it hit 3.59 only to go back to 3.21 by 6/12/2013 it's going to be a long summer for SIRI.
Nab, thanks for your thoughts. For what it is worth hope the stock goes higher but if it does I don't think it holds. The buy back probably does help some but it is not a perfect fix and the S&P report on buy back affects is for real not made up. It was not too impressed with buy backs done in record amounts that were done before the 2008 crash. They finished the report in 2007 so it was a fair report. I see Ford Research now back to neutral from a sell on SIRI so that is a Plus.
WWT, you make too much sense. Ya I should have seen the other 27 cents down range also, too symmetrical & boxy. Somehow I'm guessing we see that higher range and this summers market moves very slow to boot. Thanks for your thoughts. I really do see a market correction is in order. I would rather be positive all the way but we live in a cyclical world. GL-LR
Duke 1925 was a good guess; you must have attended one of those parties and stayed sober. I didn’t see anything to celebrate when the 1st Q GDP revision was announced Friday at -1% but the market did anyway.
I am not seeing much to hang a hat on SIRI here. I will play MR. Spock here and state I don’t follow logically why SIRI would get up to the 3.52-3.60 area. If the mark is 3.25 and the market is heading into a slowing period why let it get chased there then? What purpose does that serve?... “After a while the mine runs dry, the so the co is forced to mine a new higher” … Why would the mine run dry in lower ranges in a so/so market around the corner for SIRI? Then shorting SIRI from the 3.52 area I am guessing your stop would be around the 3.22 mark if it even gets up in that 3.52-3.60 place. I am not betting on SIRI hitting that 3.52-3.60 area and actually that is not a real exciting move from here, but you have spent enough time discussing this possibility so I think it has at least has a 50/50 chance of occurring.
Now for the later possibly of a serious market correction, you make a pretty good funny but I think this guy writing in Barrons this week has a real answer on the 10Y TB:
“Similarly, Peter Tchir of Brean Capital devised a three-part rating system by which he compared seven possible reasons for falling Treasury yields: scarcity of bonds, investors chasing yield, European Central Bank expectations, a Treasury short squeeze, underweight positions in bonds, poor market liquidity, and lackluster economic growth. Tchir concludes that poor U.S. growth is the real culprit. "Concerns about the economy are real and spurred Treasury buying and are likely to be persistent," Tchir writes.”
I think poor growth in the second half of the year will be the underpinning of the market along with continued tapering of QE3.. The ECB meets this next week and I don’t think they can do that much and the Fed meets June18-19.
Anyway I don’t see a lot of exciting plus moves out there anymore and it is time to play it cool this summer. A better move for SIRI is in the lower areas for a neat hat trick back out but it all remains to be seen.
Hey Duke, nice call on the S&P 1925, with 1924 close enough. I bailed on 1901 last Friday as that was close enough on my pension index fund and it is getting riskier out there even though the VIX says it is not, IMO.
Thanks for your range call. Some bigger volumes and unusual trading going on in SIRI...land. I still can't tell breakout or breakdown and I think that is the way I am supposed to feel. I will say this,... if it is not going to break out in June to your estimates it's not gonna breakout later this summer either is my call. Why mess with either and somebody can collect all those options premiums as well.
Anyway guessing what JM wants other than he wants SIRI at a good price and then who knows gets beyond me. Heck SIRI might be worth fixing and it needs some fixing if he is a true entrepreneur. LR
WW, a few other thoughts about the "lost posts". Sounds like an old Star Trek Episode. Duke did remark on the SF SA article and his analysis. One thing he brought up was that SIRI was being priced by EBITDA and FCF, a combination of the two. But due to the Buy backs the FCF would actually start to decelerate like 90 Mil a year from additional interest charges incurred as a result of the BBs. So real income was going down as a result of the stock Buy Backs and that was affecting the PPS.
Duke quoted some of the comments to the article and I have to wonder if this is why the posts don't show up. Just guessing on the latter.