Hey WWT, been awhile. Between FB and Google right now I like FB better. You never know what Zuck will say or the new ventures but I like the kind of chances and challenges he is taking. Goog seems to have more regulatory issues right now but could do well. As for SIRI have been sitting on the sidelines mostly lately and don't know what to think. I keep doing the same 6 moths trials also ha,.ha. I cancelled for about 3 months and they were in a big hurry to sign me back up $25 style & did for now. Duke's last blog so so helpful. But still better than most.
As for his steep Spring Decline and last blog I am somewhat puzzled to his now 6/8% posed decline. Maybe so, maybe not. The market overall has not wanted to go anywhere since late November. more inclined to say a slight sell off than rally but reading a bunch nobody seems to have all that great a handle on it except to say it is a meandering market. Good Luck out there. LR
I don't know where all this QE, backdoor QE and ZIRP will end or lead us either, but my feelings at this point are not any further economically than where we are at now. With the world a wash in crazy debt how will interest rates ever be normal again? It is a wealth transfer at the wrong end of the spectrum and a big misallocation of capital. How about some positive changes in tax policy "not get ride of certain govt agencies just a positive changes" and some real capital spending on increasing business models and not on just buy backs and M&A that all ends up in the CEO's and boards pocket book. Ok that is too much, but how about heading in that direction anyway.
Questions in my mind, can ZIRP be as effective as QE? It does not seem so to me but it is effective for awhile to keep asset prices up there, apparently. Yeah something has to pop sometime. How can you continue to bid up assets with flat revenue streams. Sorry I just have not seen the economy prop up all that much. Yet my property tax bill keeps getting higher every year but my wages they are like a pancake. The property tax people tell me this is good I can sell my house and make $$, but I don't want to sell it. I actually like living in it and not flipping it.
I thought Stanely Drunkenmiller interview on Blombergxx were very good recently and worth listening to. I think your hard correction you predicted earlier is down the road if it comes. This experiment with ZIRP and now negative bonds is out of control and I don't see how that ends up well. I think it has recession printed all over it unfortunately.
The market seems to be on the verge of making a new high riding the coat tails of China, Hong Kong and Europe. I think you are going to see your 2175 this spring. If first you don't succeed try try again...they say.
Jim Paulsen-Mid Caps pointing to a large overvaluation
Stan Druckmiller-doesn't like this end of the risk curve
. Timing ???
. Richard Wyskoff (UTAD)
. Chinese Hot Market
. Hong Kong Hot Market
. European "Vacation" Hot Market
. Emerging Market Issues
. El Erian-Mostly in Cash
. . Jamie D-Another Crisis
. $ USD +
Very Very Complacent
S&P "Real" Earnings
Actually was a great game to watch and nice comeback by Duke. I was pulling for Wis since my team NU is now in the Big whatever it is now, but Duke really proved tough down the stretch when it counted. LR
Well I guess you have to respect the price action. It may not make sense for the market to correct here, but it also does not make much sense for it to rally either on poor data. If a correction is coming my 2 or 3 cents is that it's later on, maybe later in summer. No yield anywhere, expectations are low, maybe most in S&P beat by 2 cents again with buy backs in place. I don't see much real concern here by the major publications, just the usual caution and maybe we test the lower range of the averages. You will get scolded if you attempt to call a top and right now the market is in a in between place. Still it's gone nowhere since last November 2014...LR
Fairly irrational at the moment. All the stuff that should be driving the market lower, dollar up, oil up, Japan Industrial Production Down, lower than forecast US consumption, instead driving it up. Seems like a stimulus fest going on...but still just hitting the ball against the wall, pinging back and forth in the range really going nowhere. Still basically same place as last November 2014. LR
Driven, yes SIRI is a fantastic long term investment. It was $4.17 on 10/22/2013 and it's what today $3.98. This is like buying a five year German Bund at negative interest rates right?!!! By contrast at the same time you could have just invested in the SPY S&P 500 and not had individual stock risk and made like 20%. SIRI ain't much of a long term investment if you haven't noticed lately. LR
Six month chart of S&P sort of looks like a 3 peaks and a dome thing. Maybe I am seeing paper dolls and it doesn't really matter. How long does just jawboning get the job done? When do we run out of room to store oil in US?
This must be your non-sensical rally. I'm not sure what else you would call it. The ten year goes up 5% when the Fed takes out patient!! They are data dependent just in case we didn't know that already. The 2015 GDP growth forecast went down. Don't ask me how this helps oil at the highest inventory level of all time and with refinery down time right around the corner to change over to summer blend. I think your time frames may be off a little and it still is not Spring yet. You got the non-sense part right! LR
Does Yahoo even work anymore? In other news bad news still moving the market up. Oil hitting $43, Santander now going after deep subprime, ECB can not buy all the bonds it wants, us. Manifacting down 3 months in a row, and this is good for the market right?
If good news is bad news and bad is good then I guess this market has a bunch of new factors to rally on. But not sure I like those factors for the economy. Watch out pension funds watch out!!!
Today I joined the maybe not camp. But it's not Spring yet.
"The FTSE has put in a triple top and has rolled over while the DAX and Nikkei are making new highs. We may have one more rally before we join the FTSE. The spring will not be pretty."
Don't forget Iron Ore,...Rio Tinto set to cut hundreds of WA iron ore jobs...Analysts have slashed iron ore price forecasts since the start of the year. Iron ore has crashed about 50 per cent in the past year to $US62 a tonne.
Not to be outdone by...XJobs report deepens emerging market rout. The rout in emerging market currencies accelerated after Friday's better than expected US jobs report sent the US dollar higher and supported investors' view that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner rather than later this year.X
Still not to sure about that one more rally. I don't think 2175 hits, but maybe it gets back to 2119 and makes a newer high around 2130. Yeah big deal on the quarter point raise. This is like the constant going on about the tapper of last year. The commodities have issues. I think it is nasty business to unwind on the pension funds. Move HOV asserts. Hard to value or shrinking value I should say. Too bad the COC is not looking at who is buying the stuff as well. Should be getting DOJ and DOL involved as well.
Did wave 5 get lost someplace in time and space. I know the chart lady HM wants a pullback before another rally. Don't see how on earth the US ten year can stay elevated when the ECB is going to buy negative interest rate bonds and China cut their growth target to 7% and some estimate the true growth for them is more like 3/4%. And all the commodities keep plunging. LR
Looks like letting more air out of the tire action again. If this weird moving market sets a new high in next week or so, I think SIRI might get close to theirs or back over $4 anyway. . I think this market is running out of things to push. China accepting lower growth, more currency devaluations & oil inventories building with refinery maintenance season around the corner in a few weeks.