There must be some problems with the collateral. I can't see this not hitting the 200 DMA now of around $3.68 and probably a little lower by next week. .After about 7+ months now since late November 2014 the S&P is up maybe 1% if you count dividends with all the record buybacks. The economy GDP grew at about a 1% clip in the first half of the year with cheap gas. Hey the unemployment rate is now at 5.3%. The Fed was gonna raise their bank rate when unemployment hit ? I forget was it 6% originally?
I think somebody said this in some obscure report.
Along with its latest monetary policy statement, the Fed also released its Summary of Economic Projections, or a broad outlook for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation.
In this release, the Fed lowered its long-run expectations for the unemployment rate, called its "central tendency," to 5.2%-5% from a range of 5.5%-5.2%. This means basically that the Fed now believes the economy will be at "full employment" when the unemployment rate is somewhere between 5.2% and 5%: in March it was 5.5%.
So aren't we at the Fed target yet? Seems to me like we are. LR
Excess Euro printing is this the ECB QE2 coming? I guess that could happen but not sure how they get away with it. I heard a funny one the other day. Probably an old saying. If I owe the bank $100,000 and can't pay I am in trouble. If I owe the bank $1,000,000 and can't pay the bank is in trouble. I am thinking the Euro maybe needs Greece in it more than they do. I really think the big test for this market is not Greece, but all the people saying the impact was minimal I don't think they got all that right. I think when the Fed makes the first rate hike that's the test of this market if it can hold up under tightening. And by the second rate hike I think there will be some cracks in the wall. Sometime in 2015. I think you got it right on the collateral thing to. LR
The services I look at say it is a short most of the time. I was looking for the stick save but beginning to wonder. I guess you are talking about the SA guys as far as consultants. I rarely read them anymore. Read a few things from Raoul Pal recently I thought were interesting and insightful. Have fun with the cards.
Looking more like it wants to go down and touch the 200DMA at 3.67 area now. Maybe it gets another Stan Mikita stick save. RSI at .37.8, so not at the bottom of that yet. The service's say the trend is bearish and that it is a legitimate short. I am not short it at this time. I'm looking for the stick save... but the 200 DMA is pulling strong. Needed to be up on this rally today. LR
Driven, you guessing an awful lot lately and you guessing wrong. Whatever floats your boat.
About 6 times since early March, kind of like this market to. Won't break out or down. I wonder about real GDP so far thru June and what Raoul Pal says,, recession in 2015. Then again this market is doing a good job of going nowhere. Good luck at Cards!
And 2 more months and down another 7 cents. At one time yes it was a great investment. I don't see that right now however.
Driven, you sound like some of the people that predicted that Q1 GDP would be ok. Just pointing out what is actually being reported. Not fantasy. No not the Duke, you are sooo way off there. LR
Some other numbers for Mothers day. The Atlanta Fed's new forecast system predicted that GDP Now was .1% in Q1 2015, it came in at .2% when everybody said it would probably be around 1.5 to 2%. Now with the newly reported trade imbalance estimates from last week economist predict the Q1 GDP will get revised to around -.5%. The Atlanta Fed are now saying with their GDP Now forecasting that through May 5th GDP in Q2 is .8%. That almost works out to ZERO Percent through today. I am wondering how Retail Sales comes in on Wednesday this week and what GDP now will read after that. Where is all the growth and money saved on cheap gas???