I agree the buy the dip mentality is still out there. It is getting more curious and curious that the Ten Year is again drifting down if the US economy is picking up that much. Things don't quite add up there especially when the Fed Yellen says interest rates may pick up in early 2015.
Where would we be if the Ten Year were at 5% instead of 2.5%? In a much better place IMO. It would mean US deficit was in good shape and we had some decent robust growth that was going on. I wonder if I will see that again my lifeftime.
WWT, I keep getting those discounted renewals myself. I think I am paying like 5.99 monthly for the mostly XM old stations. It works for me. Ya lately their classics have left something to be desired and I haven’t heard any new wrinkles in their service to get me excited. Probably that is somebody’s master blaster game plan I can’t figure out.
I don’t know of the catalyst for an S&P roll-over either? I think it will be a confluence of events and not just one thing. Did I say confluence? My biggest digs are: 1) slow growth in Japan, slow growth in Germany and Europe, and maybe sometimes slower growth in China, 2) end of QE3 of course and the history of that event 3) peak market theory and the DC of the 10 year T back in April…that says more to me than the DC of the Russell… I don’t look at them magically…but they are saying something… like…slower growth than everybody is letting on. 3) It takes 500 Dow points and 60 S&P points to go up + 3% now, which is more than they went down on the Black Monday 1987 crash to lose + 20% 4) The industrials are not doing so hot but the Twitters of the world and other type stuff can’t be beat 5) What do you buy here with a lot of confidence except the S&P 500 index? 6) Does inflating assets save the world when income growth is so slow…Ok I stop there… Maybe the market does keep going up. That playbook is out there to…but I am sitting out this sharp turn out until I have better control of my car…LR
" To gain just 3+ more percent all year the DOW has to go up 515 points and the S&P 60 points or more than it went down in the October 1987 crash for a 20%+ loss in one day point wise. Wow we are up there! But maybe an argument to stay in the market long term. Short term, financial times seem worse to me today than back in 1987.
Frank, nice move! That was a wild ride today on SIRI and closing at the low is not on the plus side for it. Maybe thsi market is starting a trend the other way. It's just a 2% move from the intraday top so I don't want to get carried away with correction talk, but that was a big move buy SIR last few days. LR
Back in 1987, I was lucky...I was mostly out of the market at that time 10/19/1987 going back to graduate school to work on a Masters in Business in Texas, where I had moved from the midwest. I remember hearing about the crash driving into night school. I wasn’t sure If I wanted to stay there in TX, I was not sure I liked whom I was working for, a few years later I was married and ya I guess I decided to stay there. Times seemed much better actually then than now, financially to me. One thing I am thinking, which is a bit of a weird thing back then when the DOW dropped 22.6% which dropped it 508 points and the S&P dropped 52 points for a 20.6% loss…just crazy. TODAY if we were to have such an occurrence the DOW would have to drop (3,880) points in one day and the S&P 500 (409) points…wow! I cannot even image that. Looking at that in reverse. To gain just 3+ more percent all year the DOW has to go up 515 points and the S&P 500 60 points or more than it went down in the October 1987 crash for a 20%+ loss in one day. Wow we are up there! But maybe an argument to stay in the market long term. Short term, financial times seem worse to me today than back in 1987…LR Good Luck Out There.
Frank, I did not see any new upgrades on the new Guidance. Ford Equity Research in it's latetst 9/5 report rates SIRI a sell before this new announcement. they were not too complemnatry about it. So MCD not doing too good in US or overseas sales. That does not say too much good about retail sales this Q.
They say besides some othe rnegative stuff..." Price movement is VERY NEGATIVE
SIRIUS XM Holding's Inc. stock price is down 5.4% in the last six months, up 8.3% in the past quarter and up 6.7% in the past month. This historical performance should lead to below average price performance in the next one to three months. "
I don't think the S&P is gonna make it to the 2020 area based on the last few days and the fact that the monthly retail report for Auhgust is reported on Friday morning. GL-LR
Ya, it's funny we bought a TV set there at Conn's for my mother in law there about 5 years ago. It's was what she wanted and on sale so got it there. Not a credit issue. That is interesting though. I did not realize that about how their credit worked for them and yes I see the big drop off in their stock.
The market did not seem to like what Dragi did a few days ago but really liked the crummy jobs number. I don't think the Fed can not back out QE 3 like they plan by October. They need to finish the tapper or they lose face if our economy is really picking up like they say but with slack. Did we ever expect people to be able to raise families with Jobs at McDonalds and Walmart ? When I grew up those jobs were for teenagers and young adults just getting started. Now where are they supposed to work?
What is magical about S&P 2020 and 3 more trading days? Actually S&P 2000 seems too high to me. I forget what the Feds job is anymore. They seem to be changing their job description as the story goes on. The trickle down effect is not working. How much lower can interest rates go? Liked the articles.
Good article, still calling a correction is not an easy thing to do unless you do it all the time like the perma bears. The Central bankers do yield significant influence on the markets and bad news/good news still seems to work for more expectations of more easing. But maybe we are easing ourselves into a recession by seldom addressing needed fiscal policy truthfully. Still I’m not wanting to go to risk assets to grab that last 1%, so I’ll watch the show for now.
I remember back in mid 2009 and someone interviewed the Host of CNBC Dylan Ratigan regarding the start of the market rally from the financial crisis and he said it was a “suckers rally”. Hum he kind of got that one wrong but I don’t think too many really realized the effect that QE could have on the markets at that time. However as time goes on I wonder myself even with real interest rates sooo low can continued QE lift the market. Can Europe really do an effective QE also or just talk about it is all.
Do investors really have a choice I wonder when the Fed makes interest rates so ridiculously low and they are if people have not noticed? I remember the good old days when you thought a 5% interest rate on a CD was an ok deal but nothing special. People I work with would jump at that 5% rate today over being in the market all the time, if it were there. Now you get .80% on a five year CD. I’m not sure interest rates will ever be normal again. Now the market may have jumped from 660 to 2000 in that over 5 year time frame but has the real economy, no, better, but still a long ways to go IMO. There are lots of concerns out there a from my view point that seem real, Russia, the Ukraine, Europe’s economy, Embola, the mid east, it’s just the investment alternatives keep people in the market even when they would rather not always be there so those concerns don’t seem to mean anything when the central banks run the show.
I do think with the Fed backing out of QE even slowly this will have a negative effect and that death cross on the 10 year means something as well. Now SIRI hit their golden cross and will that means something? It seems to have on low voliume. I think SIRI can keep going up here to as long as the market keeps moving that way, until it doesn’t.
Sounds like you had a good vacation.
WWT, good time to take a break. It looks like SIRI could be going into that golden cross soon but yes you have to wonder if that could really help it on this low volume rise with the market. I do buy most of the Duke's arguments, it's just if this market keep moving plus then SIRI probably hangs with it.
This market is something else. But then I see like at a 5 year CD rate for over 25K and the most you can get on one is 1% on a CD special on a 5 year. i see one credit union I use has 2% for 60 months. Whoa! When will the Fed ever normalize interest rates? Will there ever be such a thing again in our lifeftime? Makes me wonder.
The economy is getting better with mostly subpar jobs, there is growth, but very slow growth and off taregt for what this market thinks. You can see world growth slowing down to. More dovish Yellen Jellin ? I think the market is due for an adjustment, whether it will happen this year time only tells and being in cash can not hurt much at this point. I don't like that other Cross i saw recently either. The Ten Year Death Cross back in April, that has not been a very good sign for markets in the last 10 years.
I just re-upped another 5 month discount subscription on SIRI, but I have to agree their format needs a big tune up to. GL
Have a good vacation. Good articles. I have been thinking for awhile what is the Fed going to doing once this round of QE ends? More (ZIRP). I don't think there is the will to just jump in and do another QE 4+ after all these rounds of it and not being that effective in the real economy. New voting Fed members may be having a stronger voice to not go along with more of it. I think with the 10Y TB going the wrong way in yield this is a statement about the world economy and about the US for sure as well and it's not a statement about a velocity take off robust economy either. I think the Fed is running out of tools in their tool box myself. Can our markets survive WITHOUT the Fed's and world QE policies anymore? You have to wonder.
I get tired of this bad news is good new scenario. I know we have to save the stock market and real estate because if we don't what the heck is going to happen to all these pension funds? They can't survive on no 2%+ yield. No big company is ever going to happily want to start a defined benefit plan again like they used to. We live in a 401(k) defined contribution world as we push the risk out to the workers. But can this Fed trickle down QE policies really do something to make that better? It makes sense we need the yield. It doesn't make so much sense that trickle down works and that economies are really getting better like you say "with all the income disparity". Have fun.
Duke, I know it's high finance but if GS loans me the TB's to use as my collateral to pay them back on default how are they really protected because they are the that loaned them to me? I believe what you are saying but it does not make that much sense either that actually works as a collateral arrangement.
Duke, thanks for your Sunday Blogs and GL through end of year. Ya we rallied, just barely, but we did.
I see the Ford Research note.
" Ford's Sell recommendation on Sirius XM Holdings Inc. is the result of our systematic analysis on three basic characteristics: earnings strength, relative valuation,
and recent stock price movement. The company has managed to produce a neutral trend in earnings per share over the past 5 quarters. However, while recent
estimates for the company have been lowered by analysts, SIRI has posted results that fell short of analysts expectations. Based on operating earnings yield, the
company is overvalued when compared to all of the companies we cover. Share price changes over the past year indicates that SIRI will perform very poorly over
the near term.
Earnings Strength is NEUTRAL"
I'm hoping it holds, but if not I'm ready to. Thought the TY DC thing Peak Research point was interesting from the standpoint that just saw it and the cross was in April and it has not spelled good results the last 4 times before. The ten years near and just above that 2.4% mark and that's just too low. One of these days they need to get an administration in there that's pro business that doesn't mind doing something for the little guy as well. Thanks
Duke, if there is some kind of rally coming it's not from this level. Don't know what would spur it either except for putting on the beer goggles and driving ahead. Maybe near the 50 day MA level there is support for awhile and a rally. I would say Putin and the Ten Year Death Cross are having a new negative effect on this market.
That Peak Market research and ten year DC thing are interesting and happened both times the Fed turned off the previous QE's. I don't see how we can be building enough in a dum down to zero interest rate environment. I think Bill Gross got it wrong.
Hey Frank nice move. Very nice. Looks more like the S&P wants to test that 1860/1875 level. I had a small position in SPY Puts I sold last week. I wish I would have held onto them but did make a gainer on it. Duke seems to think one more rally is possible. Maybe after we get to the S&P near 50 day. The market is reacting to negative news more severely it seems as that Fed Put is moving away from my observation. .
Well a countermove for SIRI in a negative market on Tuesday. I guess all the air had already been let out if the ballon. Thought after Monday we might get that last spasm rally and I guess still could, but not looking like it today. Maybe too much Russia and not enough Fed.