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SWS Group, Inc. Message Board

long_short_guy 15 posts  |  Last Activity: 42 minutes ago Member since: Jan 15, 2011
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  • long_short_guy by long_short_guy Jun 7, 2015 9:43 PM Flag

    before you take this to zero.

  • long_short_guy by long_short_guy Jun 20, 2015 8:58 AM Flag

    "paid by the Company to IMES at closing was $12.2 million in cash" BUT

    IMES had 2 loans due to Bank Of A for another $1mill. that RELL had to pay. So the extra mill was not "paid to IMES". Very clever of ED to word it this way..

    So I ask you, appx 10 Sales, ( in Ed Speak prob 9.7 rounded up) 1 Mill in bank loans and 750K of other equipment not financed by bank? What kind of earnings power does IMES really have?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • long_short_guy by long_short_guy Jun 28, 2015 9:15 PM Flag

    Suppose you are asset a manager that gets 1% annually for assets under management. or 25% per Quarter.
    Suppose you own 26 million shares
    Suppose you can make a few 100 share trades at ask price. say 100x8.5 = $850
    Suppose before quarter ends the price goes from 8.00 to 9.00 from a few $800 to $900 trades.
    DO THE MATH ON YOUR FEES vs TRADES

    another math question: If you own 26 million shares, How long @ 50% volume per day would it take to get out? remember only 5 trading days per week

  • Reply to

    THINK ABOUT IT

    by illinoismaker58 Jun 4, 2015 8:24 PM
    long_short_guy long_short_guy Jun 7, 2015 9:17 PM Flag

    Spot on. But not sure of liquidation value of this pig.
    CFO only 56/57 and going to "retire" ED take a hint!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    THINK ABOUT IT

    by illinoismaker58 Jun 4, 2015 8:24 PM
    long_short_guy long_short_guy Jun 9, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    who flagged my post??
    #$%$

    broke it up for main points.
    1)Ed could have another 15-20 years.
    2) don't invest based on rndap hope of change in management based on old age
    3) price may spike on rndap's old age end game.
    4) watch obits if you want to invest this way. but that is not investing

    Better to invest in company with positive growth prospects

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • long_short_guy by long_short_guy Jul 24, 2015 8:08 PM Flag

    So @6/30 108M cash and LT investments, Less 11.5 purchase price PLUS 740K in non bank financing PLUS 1 Mil bank loans =13.3 M net 94 Mil with purchase, PLUS 1Mil for "severance" (aka keep CFO from saying anything) so net now down 93M (accrued but not paid @5/31) , Losses to 2017/18. @ 2M/q for 10qs -20M, net in 2017 cash 70M discounted back and dividends to be paid, to today appx, 60M. SO THE NET PRESENT VALUE OF $60 MILLION future cash ON 13.6 MILLION SHARES IS ABOUT $4.40 per share (IMO)

  • Reply to

    TO LONG SHORT GUY

    by illinoismaker58 Jul 25, 2015 2:45 PM
    long_short_guy long_short_guy Jul 26, 2015 9:56 AM Flag

    Yes I was only looking at cash. I think of RELL as commodity industrial products. That is NOT profitable. Everyone of RELLs end markets has bigger and stronger competitors who can compete on price and crush RELL any time they want.

    Look at AVX if you want to see how to make money on capacitors.

    ED's has a long track record of value destruction. I do not see how things will change, therefore I just value this POS on cash..... Declining cash

    " I appreciate your opinion" that gets funnier every time I think of it.

  • long_short_guy by long_short_guy Jul 27, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    1) no profit till fourth quarter 2017: ED did NOT say fiscal or calendar. Much akin how they did not disclose the bank loans that added to the purchase price in press release. but a 1M cash payment to banks Almost 10% of purchase price not material???

    2)ED in response to question of SGA coming down... "No, but you'll see SG&A go up all year long" response to Mark Ziniski.... that is even with cut back in spending on 2 IT systems.

    IMO and just IMO. I have seen many companies put in new IT and find that something was wrong with prior costs/inventories/margins. Just be prepared for adjustments from many Q's of "unabsorbed cost" (search prior 10Qs and transcripts)

    and some recent history..
    On 3Q Call April 9th, ED said sales of 36-39M... +50 Days later sales came in at 34.6, at high end missed by 11.6%. CANT FORECAST 50 DAYS OUT!!!! what does that say to 2017??

    See Mr. Bush's comments on current call on guidance since 2011. BRUTAL!! but true. missed every one.

    Trust must be earned.

    But I do appreciate your opinion

  • long_short_guy by long_short_guy Jul 28, 2015 8:55 PM Flag

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    Attorney Advertising in some jurisdictions under the applicable law and ethical rules.
    (215) 638-4847, toll-free at (888) 638-4847

  • Reply to

    WOW AN INSIDER BUY!

    by illinoismaker58 Jul 31, 2015 6:49 PM
    long_short_guy long_short_guy Aug 4, 2015 7:33 PM Flag

    and according to the s-4, with the purchase of 5,000 shares he now owns (drum roll please).... 5,000 shares. (did not show options) . and in the 2014 proxy, he was paid 15K in cash and 14.7K in options.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Steve Barlow is the head of IR

    by dshepherd1 Aug 18, 2015 12:51 PM
    long_short_guy long_short_guy Aug 19, 2015 6:40 AM Flag

    Steve left long time ago. Its RR's company and all IR must be approved by RR.

  • Reply to

    PLEASE LET US KNOW

    by illinoismaker58 Aug 18, 2015 10:57 AM
    long_short_guy long_short_guy Aug 20, 2015 8:41 AM Flag

    What would happen if you pledged 3 million shares on a loan at $9-10 per share and got 60%-70% LTV ..and then the stock falls to $5.50.
    Now RELL could have used cash to buy blocks from bank, saving ED, but this is just speculation, as a conflict of interest like this would have to be approved by an independent board to benefit one shareholder over others.

    Since the pledge was disclosed, and no sale of the shares, I'm probably wrong, as a material transaction would require public disclosure. IMO

    and as always..... Ed does appreciate your opinion

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    PLEASE LET US KNOW

    by illinoismaker58 Aug 18, 2015 10:57 AM
    long_short_guy long_short_guy Aug 29, 2015 9:04 AM Flag

    From PROXY file 8/21/ 2015: Ed's rounding is bad or he lied to Mr. Bush on call: "about 400,000" is not 491,000

    "Mr. Richardson has pledged 491,000 of his shares of Class B common stock as security to JP Morgan Chase Bank to secure a personal loan."

    But Ed "does appreciate your opinion"

  • Reply to

    PLEASE LET US KNOW

    by illinoismaker58 Aug 18, 2015 10:57 AM
    long_short_guy long_short_guy Aug 26, 2015 7:35 PM Flag

    sorry, Ed said on last call his loan was as high #$%$ Mil, but now down and about 500,000 shares pledged. and he owns about 2.2 million shares now. I seem to remember it larger in the past.

  • Reply to

    ANY REAL ANSWERS??

    by illinoismaker58 23 hours ago
    long_short_guy long_short_guy 42 minutes ago Flag

    well, i took a peek at some 13-f's as of 6/30. and there are a few large guys have been selling for over a year. RGM sold over 170K march- june Q and still had over 800K left, and Dimensional had dumped over 100K shares over the past year and still had 1.09M shares. next 13-f will be 9/30. so wont know till then and the bank could be in the mix.

    I once heard that NASDAQ trade logs may show both buy and sell in volume across different platforms, not sure if that is true, but volume may have been less

    The bigger question is, what fool was on the buy side of the trade?

    Sometimes you have to take the loss and move on. Given the amount of global civil unrest look at LRAD, non lethal crowd control and mass notification systems. not making money yet, and demand lumpy, but check out web site for some VERY cool products. I'm long, Limit orders, trades by appointment

    But " Ed does appreciate your opinion",

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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