I said yesterday, with no shame.....
.....10$ instantly for approval
.....0 - 1.5 for CRL
This is not CRL. in fact they'll review SPA again. I think we have a completely different scenario.
We could see uptrend until 6 by the 15 jan, not joking... like before ADCOM.
Today will close at 2.5.
That's what I mean....
In the end, both SOMX & KV.A failed.... that's not important at the moment.
But, go check what happened to their PDUFA......delay.... debacle on pps...... approval... market surprised.... +700% in1 month... both them
Every road is possible at this point, and I mean every...... including another debacle.
Just one thing... first thing to come to my mind: KV.A. & Somaxon.... go check 2010/2011..
One thing **just blinked** to my mind.
And accurately avoided in EVERY conference calls I've listened to lately (FCEL, BLDP, HYGS, PLUG).
What about the green incentives deadline?
Is it me or I heard (1-2 years ago) that there was a deadline set in 2014?
And maybe after that time - after renewal, hopofully - all orders will tumble down big?
Is there a deadline?
Ok, small steps.
But I think, if they use the good cash at hand they have, with well "aimed" operative-cash (read no diluitions)..... 15$ is only 250M$ in Mcap.
I see now, Price-to-sales ratio is 0.6 (last year)...... one of lowest of its sector (after MY).
But I see margins are growing, and ARE supposed to grow in 2014 (huge backlog, so better margins).
In fact, last quarter PTSales ratio.....0.51!!!!! The lowest!!!
Makes no sense.
There's big room for uptrend.
They have to sign those 30MW* (not are considered "given").
Then, they have to sign multiyear orders.... something like 50 to 100 MW***....
At that point, we'll see scale up in production..... I can't blame them for not scaling up now.
So, apart speculative movements, I think the great news would be first***..... and then*.
Remember, the * is supposed to happen in first half 2014 (see CC). First half could mean apr, may, june......
Now that I'm very light (8k shares) I'm not starting to bash. Actually I'd be glad to buy back @ 2 if there was a great news.... no problem.
If not, I'll buy back under 1..... by 3-6 months... sad but true.
One can even decide to stay still for years.... it's anyone's decision.
I stay very bullish on long term..... bearish in near term (1-6 months) with these conditions.
For those with my sentiment, don't stay 100% sideline.... the "risk" for sudden news is always alive.
I just bought few hours ago, but I think this is first time the market keeps sleeping.
Google: "Siemens spokeswoman Claire Little confirmed that the tower supplier for the big order will be Broadwind Energy Inc., which builds towers in Manitowoc and Texas."
None forged the news.
The news is real, just not filed yet by the company.
You must be joking.
For the very near terms.......
Just draw a line.... write down all numbers from 0 to 20.
Then, delete all numbers between 2$ and 10$, because they won't exist Monday.
In the likely case of CRL, we'll see the 0-1.5 range.
In the unlikely case of approval, we'll see exactly the range of 18 months ago...... 13-18$....... instantly opens at 10$...... a big +500% in one day, just like ole times... Vanda, HGSI, many more......
It would be a day to remember..... not enough entry doors, ah...
A small chunk to start with.
So, all we have to do it waiting for details.
I'd say there a 2 options here:
- Warren put the money in, and there's only upside
- we have to anticipate all the financing, and it means that in the very near term there'll be a collapse in pps
It's worth to try. I think here the biggest risk is to loose the boat.
Also because I'd say there's another point #3..... a buyout, as the Company it's only valued 120 Mil$.... with backlog orders yet and this huge one.
It's defenetly worth to try and go long.
It's everybody guesses.... what would you expect from the YMB?
The key should be "analize the facts".
Rule has always been: more contracts.... more revenues.... more margins.
Nothing has changed in that rule.
It seems they have problem in signing new big orders.
I can't blame mngm for that....... they do what they can.
I do blame them because - waiting for new plants - they have to improve margins.... one way or another.
50+ Mil$ in revenues and 2.5 Mil$ in gross margins is not the way, at this point.
1 and 4...ok
2...no..... to scale up production they have to sign the 30MW.........and after that, they have to sign more deal. The only 30MW oncoming will run at 70 MW production. It's on the trascription.
3..... no...... royalty? I don't know about Europe, but big numbers (5-20 Mil$ with 100% margins) will come from POSCO (Asia). Posco won't produce until the plant is ok (guess 2015).
5..... cash raise. Nobody knows. I just know they're used to stay really fat. With a good report, they next diluition would happen over the 2$..... not now, if any.
6..... highely unlikely with still mean 5-10 Mil$ net loss
My targets: no atypical break-even or profitable qrt until 4th 2014. Profitability: 2015/2016 (if they switch 80MW in 2014 year end).
*****If a big order in NAmerica is signed (50MW+30MW given), everything changes..... everything*****
So the 30MW, are now "given".
We need a "surprise". Multiyear order in NA (at least 50MW).
"Broadwind picked to supply wind towers for $1 billion turbine order
By Thomas Content of the Journal Sentinel
Dec. 17, 2013
A $1 billion order for wind turbines is expected to lead to more business for a Wisconsin-based maker of giant steel wind towers.
MidAmerican Energy on Monday announced plans to buy 448 turbines from Siemens, in what the turbine maker said was the largest single order in the world of wind turbines for land-based wind power projects."
This is the world biggest wind plant of all time (Buffett inside).
So Uncle Warren is going green, like it or not.
Now...... talking about us (HYGS)... how much wasted/peak energy is pumped by a 1 Bil$ plant?
See 3rd qrt presentation PDF (website).
*****For every 100MW of wind power, 32MW devices of storage to "use" all the peak energy.*****
Here's a big room for Storage devices.
All was clear, except that term... lost in traslation.
I got all your opinions reading your messages.
I'll read back the pdf and some 10-Q....
I think I'm a buyer tomorrow.
I hear you.
Today I sold 1/10 shares, from 11$.
Maybe the comfort makes me feel overconfident... but I really think it's not overvalued.
With very surprise, I saw this was the one with highest margins on the sector... 30% gross margins.
Then 160 M$ in MCAP... near 50% big holders (half in loss.... have to check a little because it's canadian).
But the most important, they have breakeven/first profits @ 50 Mil$.
Full year should close @ 40-42 M$.
Backlog... 40M$ + 80 M$ not accounted into the book (multi-year)....
Have a glance at it, Blue.