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Poseidon Concepts Corp. Message Board

longrun8282 33 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2014 3:58 PM Member since: Apr 18, 2012
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  • Reply to

    NSPH set a new 52-week low pps today

    by sammyjammin Apr 15, 2014 2:05 PM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Apr 15, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    Agreed - bought at $1.76. We move up long term. Anything under $2 is a bargain.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longrun8282 longrun8282 Apr 15, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Agreed. While it gives me a bit of heartburn, I am loading up on more shares here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $2 or below good buying opportunity IMO

    by mac13air Apr 14, 2014 7:45 AM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Apr 14, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    I am frustrated with you stockpick. All I was saying is that it seems the last 2 years when this dips below $2 it goes back up.

    No way on the FDA rejection - that is public knowledge and would be out there (although negative comments could be possible; however, it seems they have been navigating the FDA pretty well recently). My guess is that this is a no news dip - I think the company is on the right track, just executing it painfully slow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Something is up.

    by kallamazu Mar 7, 2014 12:39 PM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Mar 11, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    Roth was just another boring investment shindig...I looked at the presentation and I think it was the exact same as the Cowen one.

    That being said, we are getting close to the time when you would expect to start hearing regarding the enteric submission.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Something is up.

    by kallamazu Mar 7, 2014 12:39 PM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Mar 7, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    One of the orders was for around 175,000 shares. Very heavy volume, especially for a Friday.

    I think it would be strange if the Roth conference were the answer, if it is, why was this week's Cowen conference so plain vanilla?

    I guess the first step is holding (or better yet, increasing the gains for the day)!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Roth Conference

    by robmxaa Mar 6, 2014 12:32 PM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Mar 6, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    NSPH presents on the 11th.

    The Cowen on March 4 was very uneventful (and still available online through the NSPH website), just the SOS so I expect the same out of the Roth conference.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sell Orders

    by robmxaa Feb 21, 2014 3:22 PM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 27, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    No real traction there. I think we need good news (leaked or public) to move up. Earnings, placements, gram+ revenue and enteric appear to be first up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sell Orders

    by robmxaa Feb 21, 2014 3:22 PM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 26, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    500k+ shares just went at $2.41, now trending up...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ann Lurie vs Bob Lurie

    by norsemanwam Feb 24, 2014 1:36 PM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 24, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    Please stop, we had such a good run without you posting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 19, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    I agree with nenettesow - are you trying to tell us that BioFire is struggling to play catchup with Nanosphere, who submitted enteric to the FDA over 40 days ago?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NSPH amended loan agmt today....

    by big_turd_alert Feb 18, 2014 3:44 PM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 18, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    Good catch, I just started reviewing the 10-K.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Take advantage of upgrade and sell.

    by marketsagame Feb 13, 2014 10:11 AM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 13, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    You are correct, I highly doubt $5-6 this quarter without a buyout. $3 is reasonable. $5 is achievable by EOY without a buyout. Of course, the company needs to execute its game plan announced in the CC for this to happen (far from a certainty at this point).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 13, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    Enteric was submitted in late December 2013 or early January 2014 (all I can glean from reports is that it was on or before January 10, 2014).

    Gram negative was submitted in September 2013 and approved January 2014. So I think 3-4 months would be a reasonable estimate to hear back from the FDA. Then again it is the government so don't hold your breath.

    I think the additional revenue from gram negative is virtually certain. Enteric would be icing on the cake. Obviously this company has stumbled on execution before, but it seems like they took the time to lay out a solid plan and are executing accordingly and finally promising realistic expectations.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 13, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    You are correct, gram positive was 6-8 months validation. I believe (although am not certain) the validation process is similar for gram negative, but that they now have better support staff in place to work through the validation process quicker and the time frame is 4 months.

    As stated by the CFO, "on gram-negative, we assume that our existing customer base is going to start validating this quarter and we assume that it will take about four months to work through the validation process and implementation, which leads us to a mid-year that will start to see some revenues contributing in."

    I wrote 6-8 months to remain on the conservative side.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • NSPH's management stated their road map and this is what we are looking at:

    (1) Get gram neg. validated on all placements that want it (extra $30k per year per customer) - 6-8 months from the date of placement (or FDA approval) whichever was later. Approval was January 10, 2014 - so don't expect an increased revenue stream from gram negative until 3Q.

    (2) get enteric approved and validated on all systems ($50-60k extra per customer per year) approximately 90 -120 days from approval/placement, whichever is later. Given this has yet to be approved (and may not get approved) don't expect a revenue ramp from this until 3Q as well. If we are lucky, we could see 2Q. All depends on approval.

    Combine this with the $50k per customer per year in gram positive, which, is just starting to show and should show more next quarter, and you could see some very good growth in 2014. That was management's plan and it looks to me to be a great road map. If they prove they can execute, we are off to the races.

    For anyone that did not hear the good in yesterday's call, the above analysis is where most of the revenue growth will come from (not new placements, although they will play a large part in expanding revenue beyond 2014).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looks like someone liked it, up 10%

    by gjcarlson Feb 12, 2014 4:45 PM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 12, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    Certainly - revenue expected to double next year and by their own admission, 2014 guidance seems to be on the conservative side. They even hinted at making a mistake in 2013 by not appreciating the validation time for gram +

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looks like it's a matter of R&D costs

    by schrodingerscat94 Feb 12, 2014 1:26 PM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 12, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    From the CFO in the conference today:

    "And in terms of going forward cash burn, I would not expect it to change dramatically. We’re continuing to see an increased investment and spend in our field sales force but we’re also seeing an increased contribution from gross profit and R&D is remaining essentially flat. I would expect that the cash flow for 2014 to be somewhat in line with if not slightly higher in terms of burn in the 2013 cash consumption but not dramatically different."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 12, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    Lots of things to be positive about, especially with the YOY revenue growth and increased margins. Not to mention gram neg. will increase the revenue per placement (and they said most were adopting gram neg.). Enteric could further support increased revenue per placement (if and when it is FDA approved).

    What we all can agree on is that placements need to ramp up, or a buyout needs to occur.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NSPH progressing.... but not fast.

    by marketsagame Feb 12, 2014 10:58 AM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 12, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    I agree with most of the points above. I don't think two more dilution events will happen. I think one will happen and I do believe your timing is correct in that regard (might even be Q2)

    One thing I did not like in this mornings' conference was it was the first time in a few quarters I didn't hear them say that they think they could make it to break-even without further dilution (although I missed the first few minutes).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NSPH progressing.... but not fast.

    by marketsagame Feb 12, 2014 10:58 AM
    longrun8282 longrun8282 Feb 12, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    I understand the point, but what if growth rates continue as is? We are still looking at a highly profitable company in the next two year (although I would guess there would one additional dilution event).

    I hope that they surprise to the upside, Hitachi and Europe could do wonders or maybe just the gram neg. + enteric gets many more people on board in the U.S. I think that would really send the SP up, but I think at sustained growth rates, they could be ok as well (although I admit, certainly not as well with exceeding placement expectations).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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