Well, it is classy of you to apologize. As to your last question, i'm going to leave changes in the status of my filing as a 13D holder to formal SEC filings. Suffice it to say, I continue to support the strategic alternatives process the company is engaged in, and believe that *anything* should be for sale for the right price. But I also believe that the company is substantially undervalued, and that "time is on our side," decidedly, now, from a shareholder perspective. (The value of the company will only go ever higher, over time, over the next year or two, as material free cash flow is generated, and debt is substantially, or even dramatically, paid down, leaving the company as an ever increasingly attractive "tuck in" takeover candidate for another miner.)
I dont think you can compare someone who has a Masters of Science in mining, and plenty of experience, with Neil McMillan. Your constant negativiity and cynicsm creates a horrible undertow here. The company has been "remade," and i fully anticipate we will be rewarded handsomely. Skanderbeg gets a whole lot of credit for the improvements here. Calling him "Neil's boy" is an affront.
I don't think that is valid at all. They have exposure through ESOP plans. And the directors have a huge percent of their director fees paid in stock and DSU's.
Looking to reshort in the $24.50-25 range.
The 13F reports are interesting, and show fairly broad based instituional purchasing during the quarter, with no material sellers getting out of large blocks...other than, interestingly enough, Becker Drapkin.
I believe these institutions getting into this stock are momentum based SHEEP, who are chasing performance. That having been said, stocks go up based upon supply and demand, and right now, there is DEMAND because there are BELIEVERS. (And like the typical momentum bs, the more it goes up, the more suckers that are born every minute to want to get on this train.)
no point in being short now, until the stock climbs higher, or until we get closer to a prerelease of xmas numbers. But one thing is for sure: the institutions at are buying this stock did not read the same earnings release and conference call transcript i did.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Paragon's debt to equity, adjusted for cash, is now higher than HERO's. Yes, it is has higher ebitda margins, but those look like they are going south. Also, are the PGN insiders buying stock in the open market like HERO's are?
As if that ONE stinking fact is "deterministic" in whether to choose PGN over HERO??
Good luck with your investing "regimen." You'll need it.
You're comparing market cap to ebitda margin and fact that company has a bottom line loss? That's hardly a sound analysis. If PGN took a huge 30% of assets writedown, you can be certain those ebitda margins are going significantly lower. I prefer to look at price to book and price to sales, and HERO is cheaper on those measures. They also have a $200 million firewall of cash, nothing drawn on their revolver, and no material near term debt maturities, or covenants to bust. The insiders have also bought "all the way down."
I believe wage inflation is going to pick up in the US, as is economic growth, making for a more favorable backdrop for gold. I also suspect a "reversion to the mean" on commodities prices generally.
But that doesn't mean i couldnt be wrong and gold will stay around $1200....or go down.
Not totally out of the realm of possibility....But you'd need gold at $1400-1500 US for that, I'd say, and a run rate of probably 65,000 ounces, through the end of 2015, at least, to get that. Is that your expectation?
I think a 12-18 month target of 40-75 cents if more realistic....assuming, maybe, $1300+ gold, at some point during that period.
Like 30% of assets, vs HERO's 5% of assets write off.
I'm now waiting for lower prices in december on this one, and prefer HERO to PGN, at this point.
Versus $6.6 million a year ago.
As a value investor, i always like TANGIBLE asset value, as a means of creating a "margin of safety." That having been said, the earnings, adjusted for one time expenses, look impressive....especially since they've only gotten some of the benefit from the acquisitions...and little of the expected follow on synergies yet. So as long as the cash flows and profits justify the acquisitions, going forward, rather than turn into some of the "klinkers" they've had in the past, goodwill or not, the stock looks undervalued, and the timing of my "forced sale" very unfortunate for my purposes.
I will be happy for friends and nonaffiliated relatives who are in this stock, though, who will be able to profit.
And what digital properties will they still own? and what are those properties worth in a sale?
What is the breakup value of MNI?
Can value be created if they spin off various parts, or do some other form of financial engineering?
See the latest Form 4 filing. Ominously, he was using a 10b5 plan upon the earnings release, which expired on 11/4.....And then he sold shares outright, "by choice," in the open market, on 11/4.
Becker knows that this company's stock price is a pipe dream, that bears no relationship to the only modest turnaround in the fundamentals....and the very disappointing turnaround in overall merchandise gross margin.
Much higher entry point. I would be comfortable making HERO 7-8% of a portfolio at this point....with 5-6% in PGN. If they drop another 20-30% before year end, bring HERO up to 10% of portfolio, and PGN to 7%.
I think CLGRF is the "must buy" miner, at these levels, as will be evidenced in tomorrow's earnings report (which I am only saying, based upon the spectacular production report they prereleased).
And yes, I am the largest shareholder, and a 5% owner, of CLGRF.
I still think RVM and TC are excellent buys in here also. Among others.
i happen to agree with you on this one. i'd like to see these effers buying 100K share blocks at these prices. as a result, i am waiting until december to consider adding more....or a further price drop in the near term.
I'm having a bit of fun with it, through a wee bit of farce and exaggeration.....and if that isn't the point of life, i don't know what is.
Now below $20. There are now many more longs that want to ring the cash register, than shorts that are "desperate" to cover.
It is going to get interesting. The stock is arguably worth $10-12. Or even $8-9.
75% of the move in this stock has been pure drama. 25% or less has been because of bonafide results.
What good are new cash registers and clean and well organized stores, and lower initial markups, if people are not buying CONSIDERABLY more on each visit?
The strAtegy, in its essence, is a failure, and the xmas quarter represents the "do or die" time that is likely to send this stock back into the low teens...when all the sheep and Rouleau groupies start all trying to squeeze through the exits at the same time.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
That is true. but i believe they haven't changed enough, as drilling in the Gulf of Mexico keeps going on, as long as prices are above $50, is what i'm told. (HERO doesn't do fracking or oil shale.)
And they said in the last comference call that rig pricing is holding up.
I agree Rouleau is better than Mason, but the proof is in the pudding, and his results, from a profitability perspective, are NO BETTER than those under Mason. Maybe he has already CAPTURED the low hanging fruit, with the sales gains to date, and it will eventually become more difficult to keep those gains going. (Personally, I consider the "flattish ticket size," on increased traffic, to be a rather disappointing commentary on his vaunted lower IMU (initial markup) strategy. And i would daresay it is something they are VERY concerned about themselves, behind the scenes. But they would never tell you that.)
If they can do 10%+ comps, for the next 6-8 quarters, The company MAY EVENTUALLY "grow into" its valuation. But that is a tall order, I am convinced, and in no way does the current risk/reward justify the current stock price. What "justifies" it is Rouleau's skillful hyper enthusiasm, and the broadbased faith in this pied piper, for what he hath wrought at Michael's Stores. i believe in buying a manager, to some degree, but this situation has gotten utterly ridiculous.....especially this apparent sudden discovery of all of this "low hanging fruit," which is purely fatuous flim flam, IMHO.