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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

longtimefollower 65 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    This is why TUES is worth $20 today

    by smaycs4 Sep 27, 2014 3:26 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 27, 2014 8:06 PM Flag

    You are correct that that is WHY it is at $20. But that is mere perception, and NOT reality. It is the "cult of Rouleau," as some kind of combination of Johnny Appleseed, and a soothsayer, that explains why there are so many "true believers." And i know this is mixing metaphors, but the beanstalk is about to be cut down, when the xmas results come out.,...and maybe even the sept quarter results.

    The gig will be up rather quickly, and Rouleau will have the curtain pulled away on him, with the truth of the last 18 months now obvious for all you ignoranmouses to see......and that is that there NEVER WAS any material "turnaround" at Tuesday Morning. Becker Drapkin knows that. And i daresay Michael Rouleau knows that...but is doing what he can to keep the IMPRESSION going on the Street.....until the music stops. No, i'm not talking bankruptcy.....but i am talking about a broad based conclusion that the business model is dead here...in terms of being able to earn an acceptable ROE.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    This is why TUES is worth $20 today

    by smaycs4 Sep 27, 2014 3:26 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 29, 2014 1:05 AM Flag

    Your "mason tried to kill it but she failed" outrageous hyperbole. Besides, your logic is asinine. Specifically, if she was as bad as you say, why oh why hadn't rouleau had an easier
    Time in turning it around??

    You truly do speAk with forked tongue...and reveal your position to be unthought out at best...and totAlly fraudulent at worst. You can't say mason was horrible, without saying rouleau, after 18 months of barely moving the needle, is not nearly as horrible. You simply can't have it both ways and maintain credibility. Besides, it is not about "piling on mason" any more. It is about holding rouleau accountable for the last 18 month of what is effectively a failure....until or unless he starts to materially boost both sales and gross margins. But that is NOT the kind of guidance they gave in the last conference call.

  • Obviously, a totally non scientific analysis. Just sharing impressions. Stores impressively clean and orderly. BUT, only one other customer, at any one time, was there. And just me, a good part of the time. I only spent $25, when, i spend a couple hundred, several months back, the last time i was at a store. I didn't find any compelling "impulse buys," or particularly intriguing or "must have" items.

    My thoughts are that the "specialness" of TUES just isn't what it used to be. Pricing is no better than many others. And selection just isn't the "treasure hunt" it used to be. In particular, the core categories of kitchen wares, bedding, linens, and luggage are just like anyone else's offerings.

    I remain confident in the fundamental soundness of my short position, and believe that this thing is set up for a major disappointment. Why? Because Rouleau has FLUMMOXED the marketplace by "buying" an outrageous amount of time, by sedulously and brazenly convincing the market that it was like an 18 month "program" to turn the company around, and that the lack of ANY REAL PROGRESS, up to this point, doesn't matter, and thathe should be given the benefit of the doubt. The small token insider buys were intended to MANIPULATE market places into believing that Rouleau, and his CFO, are "true believers," and intended to distract from the much more significant SELLING by Becker Drapkin.

    No matter. The proof will finally be here, with xmas quarter results. The excuses will be UNTENABLE, and Rouleau will finally have to live with the reputation he has earned.

    There is a lot of "hot air" built into this stock, and the kind of results that are necessary to justify the current stock price are virtually unobtainable.

    This thing is trading at pie in the sky prices....and i fully intend to short more, on any rally up into the $20's.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Sep 24, 2014 1:48 AM Flag

    Stringing us along for years, while maintaining a subjugated board, slavishly devoted to his every whim and desire. Then, when the company is in a DEFAULT position with its lender (hardly a position of negotiating strength with a potential acquiror), and trailing 12 month EBITDA is roughly HALF of what it was at the peak a few years ago, selling the company out for a 10% premium.

    This guy has been a MONUMENTAL FAILURE as an executive. Trying and failing to buy Lowrance, with huge wasted costs. Getting into mass market GPS, with disasterous consequences, and massively overpaying for PPL, at the 2006 peak. Bazet is a boob, a con artist, a snake oil salesman, a manipulator, a rube, and, worst of all, grandiose and self deluded. A sedulously operated Cobra for his own interest, and constantly made up embarrassing and manipulative excuses on why he was failing, and why he was destroying value. The huge lawsuit settlement of late, and now, the serial "cost cutting campaigns." It just never ends, and never ended, with this guy, who was nothing more than a Louisiana country bumpkin, who somehow rose to the level of CEO of a storied consumer electronics niche player. He should been replaced at least a decade ago, but a TOTALLY USELESS and pusillanimous board was more interested in feathering his nest, and kowtowing to him.

    This company is one of the worst examples of corporate governance I've seen in my years of activism. Bottom decile, at the very least. This whole outcome, and the timing of it, will bring nothing but shame and ill repute on Mr. Bazet. I have felt "scammed" by this con artist for years, and harbor tremendous resentment of him for his shameless manipulations, betrayals, chicanery, and patent self interest. SHAME!

  • ....with the possible exception of CLGRF.

    I love ANR at these levels. I love the underlying value. And the relative balance sheet strength and liquidity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Actual identifiable results

    by smaycs4 Oct 1, 2014 12:00 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 2, 2014 1:29 AM Flag

    Regurgitating meaningless tripe from the company.

  • Reply to

    I'm curious about something...

    by microcaptrader Oct 2, 2014 4:21 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 4, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    And that's the problem...if the "former incompetence" was so godawful, as you continue to insist, there should have been ALL MANNER of "low hanging fruit" for the vaunted and acclaimed Mssr. Rouleau. But the overall results have only shown MODEST, and very modest at that, important, from the Mason days. That is downright ALARMING....and yet the stock has quintupled from Mason's days. That is asinine.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Aug 28, 2014 1:26 AM Flag

    Actually, you're totally wrong. And totally misguided. And even delusional.

    I could CARE LESS that the stock is up. I could care less when a market is irrational....as it only allows me to add to a position.

    This game isn't over yet. Also, ignore manipulative claptrap, in press releases and conference calls, AT YOUR PERIL. Sophisticated investors now how to interpret and filter information. You're a solid value investor...but you are also quite dogmatic and rigid.

    "Playing the house's money" is a mantra for suckers, and weak thinkers. If there is something better to own than TUES, you should be in it. Holding a small position in TUES for a potential "outsized gain," because it "feels good" to you, is the height of stupidity, and hubris, and grandiosity.

    Nobody CARES any more that you bought it at 51 cents 5 1/2. I did too, but that is PAST, and it was long before Rouleau.

    You are an undisciplined thinker in many many ways. Your "cheapness" has made you sucessful as a value investor. But your inane desire for these "20 baggers" clouds your thinking.

    You are DUMB to own this stock, when there are CLEARLY better investments. DUMB. And rigid. And inflexible.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • See the latest Form 4 filing. Ominously, he was using a 10b5 plan upon the earnings release, which expired on 11/4.....And then he sold shares outright, "by choice," in the open market, on 11/4.

    Becker knows that this company's stock price is a pipe dream, that bears no relationship to the only modest turnaround in the fundamentals....and the very disappointing turnaround in overall merchandise gross margin.

  • .....shows that they are DESPERATE. (Why weren't they referring, as sedulously as they are now, to these opportunities in prior quarters??!) It also is indicative of a CREDIBILITY problem. Specifically, wouldn't a fully competent manager have, by definiition, TAKEN ADVANTAGE of low hanging fruit, which, by definition, is "easy" to capture, after being on the job for 20 months or so??

    I believe Rouleau IS competent....but i believe the low hanging fruit refreneces are DECEPTIVE, intended to "keep the music going," and "string people along." The fact of the matter is, considering how bad everyone thinks the merchandising and presentation WAS under Mason, the fact that the improvement has been so modest to moderate, after all this time, under Rouleau, is a mark of failure, and or representative of a fundamentally compromised business model (this latter thing being something Rouleau would NEVER want to admit....even if he believed it to be true).

    The business is still in the early stages of a VERY dubious turnaround, where merchandising success remains FAR from assured.....a turnaround that might justify a $6, $10, or $12 stock price, but which is a totally unjustifiable at $22 (after hours). If the company earns 50 cents this fiscal year, and even 75 cents next, is it really worth $22?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Sep 27, 2014 4:44 AM Flag

    ....with adjusted leverage much lower than ACI and WLT. This thing is truly an astonishing bargain.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Oct 9, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    .....for capital raising (margin call) considerations.

    This looks like a support area, and i suspect there will be people that want to get in, prior to earnings, later this month. I will be looking to reshort, a few days before earnings.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Oct 31, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    Now below $20. There are now many more longs that want to ring the cash register, than shorts that are "desperate" to cover.

    It is going to get interesting. The stock is arguably worth $10-12. Or even $8-9.

    75% of the move in this stock has been pure drama. 25% or less has been because of bonafide results.

    What good are new cash registers and clean and well organized stores, and lower initial markups, if people are not buying CONSIDERABLY more on each visit?

    The strAtegy, in its essence, is a failure, and the xmas quarter represents the "do or die" time that is likely to send this stock back into the low teens...when all the sheep and Rouleau groupies start all trying to squeeze through the exits at the same time.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    New approx. 7 year high today at $19.43

    by smaycs4 Sep 16, 2014 3:52 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 18, 2014 8:41 PM Flag

    Congratulations on your gains. Why don't you take them.

  • Reply to

    Bazet is sleazy and incompetent.

    by longtimefollower Sep 24, 2014 1:48 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 24, 2014 1:57 AM Flag

    I have better places to put my money, so i have sold out my entire position. However, if i didn't have such opportunities, i believe a strong case can be made for an appraisal action, and a claim that the "fair value" of Cobra shares is considerably higher than $4.30, based on management's future cash flow projections, the discount to book value, and other reasons. (To discount the future cash low projections by 44% seems rather arbitrary to me.)

    I have gotten satisfying results, in the two cases i went to court with, and sought fair value appraisal. In one case, i settled for a premium of roughly 45% on my shares. In the other case, i settled at a premium that was over FIVE TIMES the original purchase price (before subtracting out my attorneys' fees).

    Please do your own due diligence. I am NOT advising anyone to seek, or not seek, appraisal. However, if you do seek it, it would be best to find an attorney to take the case on a contingent basis.

  • WHERE'S THE BEEF?? (I.e. Results)

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    This is why TUES is worth $20 today

    by smaycs4 Sep 27, 2014 3:26 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 2, 2014 1:37 AM Flag

    Well, they certainly have not SUCCEEDED. And that is more important.

    The same store sales increases are FAR FROM "dramatic." Your characterization is manipulative, self serving, and delusional. The average ticket is DOWN, even as traffic is up. That is a monumental failure for two reasons: One, it shows the lower initial markups are NOT getting people to buy significantly MORE merchandise. Two, it shows that buying broader and less deep is adding additonal sku And buying costs, that they are not really getting much back on. This is the LYNCHPIN of their entire strategy, and they have virtually NOTHING to show for it....because the overall gross margins, and gross margin dollars, are not coming through. Worse, some of the gross margin improvement has come from distribution efficiencies, which means that the actual merchandise buying is even impressive than it looks.

    The clean and well organized stores are great. But that COSTS MORE to keep up, and again, if they aren't being rewarded enough on the sales front, that suggests, all the more, that they will NEVER be able to getmerchandising right. Because it's a BUSINESS MODEL PROBLEM.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    I'm curious about something...

    by microcaptrader Oct 2, 2014 4:21 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 5, 2014 9:09 PM Flag

    It is ALREADY overvalued. Saying it can be "overvalued for many years" is not a sound basis to decide to hold a stock. It is UNDISCIPLINED, and exclusively relates to a desire to "not miss out" on something that "is in a huge uptrend." That is hubris, and that is being controlled 100% by your emotions. Not wanting to miss out" is NEVER the basis for owning a stock. Fundamental undervaluation is.

    I think it's an exaggeration to say Mason would be suffering 5-6% declines. More like flattish comps. And the problem with Rouleau is that he NEEDS comp growth, to justify the lower initial markups, and he is only BARELY making up the lost gross margin dollars, through increased sales. I AGAIN say, if this merchandising strategy and execution and buying were so much better than Mason, the overall comps, in the EARLY STAGES of the turn around, should be up in the double digit teens, at LEAST.

    Rouleau has FAILED. And he has failed where it counts the most...materially .improving overall gross profit dollars, and margins. And that isn't a testament to Rouleau being a "failure," admittedly, as much as it is a testament to a PERMANENTLY COMPROMISED BUSINESS MODEL.

    Tuesday Morning used to be a wonderful "novelty," quirky and all. People used to assume that because of the "jumbled" nature of the stores, and the price tags, that they were getting some kind of "super bargain." Indeed, in the early days, they were. But now, people can "see past" this kind of "novelty merchandising." There are so many others offering discounts and closeouts, including in better branded products, that TUES is now a small fish in a big sea. And someone as skillful as Rouleau, after 18 months at the helm, is proving that hands down.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Not by a longshot.

    DODO BIRDS.

  • Reply to

    The high estimate for next year is now 87 cents

    by smaycs4 Aug 31, 2014 2:28 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 5, 2014 1:13 AM Flag

    1) I am not "seeking something to bet on." That's asinine.

    2) " i have the wind at my back in that the long term trend of the markets is up." Response: You'd be better off buying an index fund. TUES is in the top 20% universe of overpriced retail stocks.

    Rouleau may have been great at michael's, but it seems to me, when it comes to tues, he's a snake oil salesman....or at least with regard to their merchandising...which has been modestly successful, at best....even if the concept of "wider and less deep" absolutely makes a lot of sense.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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