....and that i have been comtinually buying, in the extreme low $2's, up through the day before the earnings release. (After having bought at up to $2.90+, just before the LAST earnings release, and getting hosed, in the short term, after the last release.)
With Friday's close, this is now the second largest holding in my portfolio.
I want to thank uptab for his very salient points about this company, as posted on this board. More recently, i especially think his point that if this were viewed as a developmental stage OIS (and possibly other new product line) company, the market cap would likely be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than current. Very perspicacious. Very compelling.
I also like the Craig Hallum upgrade.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The $5.4 million is the adjusted operating loss, under the cult figure, Rouleau, in the 1st calendar quarter. The $6.1 and $5.2 million figures are the comparable Q1 loss figures under Mason, in 2012 and 2011, respectively.
What exactly, I DEMAND TO KNOW, has Rouleau done to improve this business, over the Mason Era? The stock is up roughly FOUR TIMES OVER now! For no reason.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
This was typed on May 12th, but it wouldn't "take" on Yahoo....and I never tried reposting it until now:
5.4 M adjusted operating loss.
Mason had $6.1, in the same 2012 quarter, and $5.2 operating loss, in 2011.
There has been NO MATERIAL IMPROVEMENT in the company's fortunes under Rouleau. This is especially true on the merchandising front, as the company has added efficiencies in distribution and freight, and reduced SG&A. Therefore, on an absolute gross margin (merchandising) basis, Rouleau has ABJECTLY FAILED.
Yet, perversely, the stock has TRIPLED, when Rouleau has NOTHING to show for himself.
This guy is a fraud...at least as far as his performance at TUES goes.
I fully expect Becker Drapkin to be dumping more shares in here. They'd be fools not to.
I plan on shorting.
the government basically decided to "punish" an insolent and defiant management, and is shutting the company down. There won't be any debtor in possession financing. shareholders are paying the price for a management that was engaging in fraudulent representations that pushed the government over the edge.
They are deciding to make an example of corinthian, to show everyone else they better shape up.
This, no doubt, strikes the terror of Jesus in the entire industry....especially the ESI's, CECO's, and education managements of the world.
I am happy to get out and salvage 30 cents, as i believe this will end up worthless in fairly short order.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Nonsense. I sold 2.6 million shares over two days. Salvaging the capital will almost certainly be the smart move. And the courageous one.
The government made a decision. They are not going to go back on it. They are going to make an example of corinthian....and "punish" and humiliate Massimino and Co. For defying them, and making a mockery out of their authority.
"...we believe that we are confident that we have a solid foundation in place," Mr. Rouleau concluded.
If that isn't melee mouthed, i don't know what is. Truly confidenteople CLAIM their confidence as an emotion. They don't state that they "believe" they are confident!
Rouleau is clearly hedging his bets, and has no idea whatsoever whether the necessariy sales volume, and margins, are going to come througn, to give credence to all of the "rabid remerchandising" they have been doing the last few years.....or if it is really just some kind of pointless shell game....sound and fury signifying nothing. The jury is STILL OUT. And yet, the stock is trading as if Rouleau is the 2nd coming of Christ.
READ what Rouleau says. He HEDGES something horrible in his public comments. And that is because he has NO IDEA whether the core of his efforts here, the remerchandising of TUES, is actually WORKING.
....is a canard. The notion that the "lumps and bumps" Rouleau referred to in the June quarter is a relection of something "wonderful"......when it is really code language for the fact that they have ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT clearance markdowns to take, bespeaks of a restructuring and repositioning that is not only "out of comtrol"....but is a failure.
The proof will be in the pudding in two very important outcomes. 1) Will they be able to show increased gross margins, and continually increasing same store sales, and 2) will they be able to continue to relocate store and show massive increases in sales at those stores.
I'm not convinced of either one, but most significantly, i'm not convinced they are going to be able to show any material gross margin increases. My own belief is that this business is going to be, at best, earning anywhere from 0-50 cents in annualized EPS.
Rouleau's and COB's mini block buy was to "play the street," and get them to "keep the fsith." I personally believe it was comtrived, and totally for show. More significant has been Becker drapkin's selling.
I'm waiting for higher prices to add to my short, but certainly will add, breaks into the $20's....and will "upgrade" it to a "strong sell"
The very fact that it could come to this testifies to the height of his arrogance and stupidity and grandiosity. Why didn't he voluntarily leave the company months ago, in order to save it? Why didn't this stupid 11 member board know that It was getting to the final straw with ED.
Will the government, in the end, be able to prove fraud, and will Jack be criminally indicted?? One would feel better if such was the case. Otherwise, That he could get away with "mere" stupidity and arrogance would leave a sorry taste in one's mouth.
The fact of the matter is that he, and this stupid board, should have known the company was WAY out on a limb with ED.
Jack's statement referring to an "orderly transition of our operations" shows it is, indeed, over, and that ED has effectively decided to force COCO to close. Everything from this point onward will be on ITS terms.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Anyone calling this a "strong buy" is out to lunch. A lot of your claims are TRUE...except the fact that Rouleau has failed in the most important area, and that is merchandising. NOTHING else really matters...or it only matters about 20%, anyway. UNLESS the new executive hires FIX the merchandising.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
....in combined gross margin and SG&A (with 50 basis points coming from gross margins, and 100 basis points coming from SG&A), and the company increases sales from $865 million in 2014 to, say $950 Million in 2015, that would seem to suggest that overall operating profit is only expected to increase by $14 million pretax, or maybe $9 million, after tax. On a company that roughly broke even, on an after tax basis, in 2014, we are talking about an IMPLICIT MANAGEMENT PROJECTION of an EPS level somewhere around 20 cents a share for 2015, based upon the currently outstanding share base.
Even if they DOUBLE that guidance (which they won't), that would only put the stock at no more than 40-50 cents in bottom line, fully taxed earnings, in 2015.
I would like someone to point out what exactly, in managment's guidance in the conference call, I am missing, or how i am misrepresenting it.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
This is now my largest coal holding. I prefer it to ACI, now.
This is a spectacular intermediate to long term buy, imho. I agree with the Seeking Alpha article.
Buy it for the discount to book, and turnaround potential. Sell it for break even or better, a year or more from now, if things don't turn around.
This one is due for a major dead cat bounce....regardless of the near to intermediate term fundamentals. They have liquidity, so bankruptcy is NOT an issue for a good long while.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
...tthe fact that he effectively destroyed Corinthian Colleges, through the sin of pride and hubris, and put them into (pending) bankruptcy.
That an executive would not sense, and would not FEEL, that "the end was near," and that he was "twisting in the wind," is the ultimate in incompetence and arrogance. Jack basically sent the message to the government that "we don't have to do anything you want"...and the government said, al contrair, Mr. Massimino.
Jack Massimino gets the ultimate booby prize....for reckless incompetence...and willfull blindness...and asinine contemptuous defiance.
You're just as sleazy as you indignantly accuse me of being. You talk up your book.
I reinitiated a short position, a few weeks back, and continue to add. If you read the last conference call transcript, it is pretty clear that the current quarter is going to have what Rouleau sedulously refers to as "lumps and bumps."
I believe the inside buying by him and the chairman are pulling the wool over the market's eyes, and are setting up for a major disappointment upon the next earnings release.
This stock is FULLY PRICED for any reqsonable prospects of a turnaround now. $1 in EPS is a 20% ROE, and I think it is doubtful they will achieve more than that, at best. Slap a 15-18 multiple on that and you got a $15-18 stock. Even if they do $1.50 in EPS, if you slap a 15 multiple on that, it's $22.50.
The EVIDENCE suggests that the additional sales volume is NOT coming through, with the repositioned merchandising. They are getting more traffic, but a LOWER average ticket. That means the lower initial markups are a double edged sword, and they are giving away margin, as they are getting nominallly more overall volume. The bulls will argue that the consumer needs time to "rediscover" the "new" TUES....and that is possible....but i would certainly say, as far as the Street is concerned, that with the stock in nosebleed territory now, it is do or die time for Christmas.
I don't believe that was knowable. The fact that, 8-9 months ago, ED waived the company's need for a letter of credit, related to the financial stability score, suggested to me that the government was NOT looking to attempt to shut down Corinthian. Obviously, attitudes within ED changed over the intervening months.....because now ED is overtly seeking to come up with an "excuse" to shut the company down. (The 21 day delay in paying COCO no doubt has the INTENTION of pushing the company over the edge.) They are basically punishing mangement, and making an example of them.
If the truth of the manipulation of information is true, i hope there will be criminal fraud charges against appropriate COCO mangement figures.
It wasn't that "the book value didn't have value" with COCO....it's that the government decided it had had enough, and had state attorneys general breathing down its back, and decided to shut COCO down suddenly. That really fouls up any reasonable expected value scenario one had with COCO, because the game of musical chairs suddenly stops. I estimated the risk of the government doing such a thing as much lower than it was. I partly made that assumption based upon the fact that, last fall, the government "waived coco through" on the financial sustainability ratio, and did NOT require a posting of a letter of credit. Unfortunately, things changed drastically, since then, and "the powers that be," including, i believe, the POTUS himself, decided it was time to "make an example" of "the worst of the worst" of the for profit colleges. In restrospect, Leon Panetta getting on the board of COCO, and then off, 3 months later, may have been the canary in the coal mine.
Pure contrivances. They wanted to show "faith," that the story is still intact. But the buys are token. If they hadn't bought, the street wouldn't have trusted rouleau's "new company on sept 1st" folderol, and the stock would have dropped to $8-10, after the last earnings release.
Rouleau and burman are just buying time. But it only means the stock goes down MUCH HARDER, after the xmas results come out, are disappointing... and rouleau starts talking about more merchandise "repisitionings," and "necessary clearances," to set us up for an "absolutely fantastic future."
We're getting pretty close to the "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" time with these bozos. In fact, that's EXACTLY what burman 's and rouleau's open market buys fatuously represent. I see it as an integrity issue. What they have to lose, they're thinking, if it "buys" them credibility, for another 6 months....when that credibility should be in tatters, at this point.
Insiders would not be allowed to sell stock in the open market. They'd be thrown in jail.
I don't you've EVER been short this stock...or ever made a dime in the stock market in your life. Your just too busy lording over yourself. Goo'gooing and gaa'gaaing.
You're living in the past. This doesn't matter any more, because entities looking to acquire COCO assets are more fearful than ever about the liabilities attached. The assets are going to go for a fire sale price, now. They are tarred and feathered, and buyers are FEARFUL. Unless COCO settles a ton of legal cases pronto, which seems highly unlikely.