....with the possible exception of CLGRF.
I love ANR at these levels. I love the underlying value. And the relative balance sheet strength and liquidity.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You are correct that that is WHY it is at $20. But that is mere perception, and NOT reality. It is the "cult of Rouleau," as some kind of combination of Johnny Appleseed, and a soothsayer, that explains why there are so many "true believers." And i know this is mixing metaphors, but the beanstalk is about to be cut down, when the xmas results come out.,...and maybe even the sept quarter results.
The gig will be up rather quickly, and Rouleau will have the curtain pulled away on him, with the truth of the last 18 months now obvious for all you ignoranmouses to see......and that is that there NEVER WAS any material "turnaround" at Tuesday Morning. Becker Drapkin knows that. And i daresay Michael Rouleau knows that...but is doing what he can to keep the IMPRESSION going on the Street.....until the music stops. No, i'm not talking bankruptcy.....but i am talking about a broad based conclusion that the business model is dead here...in terms of being able to earn an acceptable ROE.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Oh? You've NEVER bought a stock in your life that was losing money? Begone, you simpleton. ContrariAnism, and distressed investing, is one of a few ways to materially outperform market averages.
Your "mason tried to kill it but she failed" outrageous hyperbole. Besides, your logic is asinine. Specifically, if she was as bad as you say, why oh why hadn't rouleau had an easier
Time in turning it around??
You truly do speAk with forked tongue...and reveal your position to be unthought out at best...and totAlly fraudulent at worst. You can't say mason was horrible, without saying rouleau, after 18 months of barely moving the needle, is not nearly as horrible. You simply can't have it both ways and maintain credibility. Besides, it is not about "piling on mason" any more. It is about holding rouleau accountable for the last 18 month of what is effectively a failure....until or unless he starts to materially boost both sales and gross margins. But that is NOT the kind of guidance they gave in the last conference call.
Well, they certainly have not SUCCEEDED. And that is more important.
The same store sales increases are FAR FROM "dramatic." Your characterization is manipulative, self serving, and delusional. The average ticket is DOWN, even as traffic is up. That is a monumental failure for two reasons: One, it shows the lower initial markups are NOT getting people to buy significantly MORE merchandise. Two, it shows that buying broader and less deep is adding additonal sku And buying costs, that they are not really getting much back on. This is the LYNCHPIN of their entire strategy, and they have virtually NOTHING to show for it....because the overall gross margins, and gross margin dollars, are not coming through. Worse, some of the gross margin improvement has come from distribution efficiencies, which means that the actual merchandise buying is even impressive than it looks.
The clean and well organized stores are great. But that COSTS MORE to keep up, and again, if they aren't being rewarded enough on the sales front, that suggests, all the more, that they will NEVER be able to getmerchandising right. Because it's a BUSINESS MODEL PROBLEM.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
will reshort on the rally back...
Sentiment: Strong Sell
And that's the problem...if the "former incompetence" was so godawful, as you continue to insist, there should have been ALL MANNER of "low hanging fruit" for the vaunted and acclaimed Mssr. Rouleau. But the overall results have only shown MODEST, and very modest at that, important, from the Mason days. That is downright ALARMING....and yet the stock has quintupled from Mason's days. That is asinine.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
It is ALREADY overvalued. Saying it can be "overvalued for many years" is not a sound basis to decide to hold a stock. It is UNDISCIPLINED, and exclusively relates to a desire to "not miss out" on something that "is in a huge uptrend." That is hubris, and that is being controlled 100% by your emotions. Not wanting to miss out" is NEVER the basis for owning a stock. Fundamental undervaluation is.
I think it's an exaggeration to say Mason would be suffering 5-6% declines. More like flattish comps. And the problem with Rouleau is that he NEEDS comp growth, to justify the lower initial markups, and he is only BARELY making up the lost gross margin dollars, through increased sales. I AGAIN say, if this merchandising strategy and execution and buying were so much better than Mason, the overall comps, in the EARLY STAGES of the turn around, should be up in the double digit teens, at LEAST.
Rouleau has FAILED. And he has failed where it counts the most...materially .improving overall gross profit dollars, and margins. And that isn't a testament to Rouleau being a "failure," admittedly, as much as it is a testament to a PERMANENTLY COMPROMISED BUSINESS MODEL.
Tuesday Morning used to be a wonderful "novelty," quirky and all. People used to assume that because of the "jumbled" nature of the stores, and the price tags, that they were getting some kind of "super bargain." Indeed, in the early days, they were. But now, people can "see past" this kind of "novelty merchandising." There are so many others offering discounts and closeouts, including in better branded products, that TUES is now a small fish in a big sea. And someone as skillful as Rouleau, after 18 months at the helm, is proving that hands down.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Average comps were down 7/10 of 1%, annually, under Mason, for the 3 years 2010, 2011, and 2012...:the last 3 years of her tenure. That having been said, I agree with you that she was a failed manager, and a self justifying excuse machine. On the other hand, As previously stated, Rouleau should have plenty of "low hanging fruit," from a gross margin improvement standpoint....but he is not finding it! Which makes you wonder about either him....or the business model....or both.
This guy may very well turn out to BE Kathleen Mason in drag. If the sales abd margins do not come through. I think the September quarter is actually going to be a great preliminary "bellweather," on how things are going.
.....for capital raising (margin call) considerations.
This looks like a support area, and i suspect there will be people that want to get in, prior to earnings, later this month. I will be looking to reshort, a few days before earnings.
Quit whining, you idiot. And be patient. Your posts are a total embarrassment....as you it shows you can't even see the nose on your face.
If thes results we have been seeing don't excite you, and excite you monumentally, you should stick to keeping your money in bank cd's.
If and when I'm comfortable with my capital levels, I will short again. But yes, I will add some short on any run up to 19.50-19.75 again. Preferably before the pending earnings release.
Not touchy. Just irritated by your impatience, and stupidity. It seems to me The company is doing what it can to get the story out...but it is kind of like pushing on a string when gold prices are where they, and sentiment is so poor.
Make no mistake, the current situation represents a SEA CHANGE for Claude...and the market as a whole is barely paying attention. But I believe they eventually will. They will pretty much have to. The turn around is just too dramatic to ignore. And the internal value creation is quite extraordinary.
I believe the stock should be trading much closer to book value....and if the company should be able to continue to perform, in a context of stable to increasing gold prices, it likely will, over the intermediate to long term (6-18 months).
Caught with my pants down with a money losing short position in fed funds futures.....very unfortunately.
This removes effectively 9% or so of the nonaffiliated shares from the public float, which, between reducing supply, and generating accretion, should be a boon for all the remaining shareholders of P&F.
It also bailed me out of a dramatic and sudden liquidity pickle (now fully resolved, i hope).
Sometimes things don't always happen as we wish in life.......
P&F is attractive, no doubt about it. But margin calls are margin calls, and the company was willing to work very expeditiously, and impressively, with me. (I didn't realize they would have to get a waiver from their bank when the process was initiated, so I consider an effective 30 hour "turnaround" from start to finish to be quite extraordinary...like moving mountains, really.) In any case, I do believe, over the next 12 months, that I have more profit potential in my favorite "low priced" names, such as ANR, HERO, CLGRF, RVM, etc. (Fair disclosure: I am a 5%+ holder of CLGRF, the largest shareholder, in fact.)
Obviously, much is dependent on just how heady the accretion is in P&F, from the acquisitions, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a $10-12 stock price in the next 6-12 months, perhaps. But I think the stocks above are good candidates to double or more in the same time period.
I will continue to be around here. I have friends who are in this stock, and I need to keep up with the situation. Plus, I had owned this stock back to 1996 or so, and am a huge "student" of P&F.
Maybe one day, 3 or more years hence, in the next recession, I will find myself in the position of being an owner of P&F again. Until then, there are many other fish in the sea, and while I asked the company to NOT bind me to a standstill, it was made clear to me that there would be no deal without one.