You're going to miss the additional run. Today's snapback, and closing with only modest losses, shows the stock continues to undergo massive accumulation.
Now have this back up to a full 10% of my total portfolio.
I expect this to be a huge winner over the next 6-18 months. My target is $10-15.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well, a full and fair auction should yield a full and fair price. Adequate, anyway.
There are other fish in the sea.
Well, that is absolute nonsense, as a speculation. It is the scotia coverage that is getting claude all the attention...with more coverage probably likely, since they flew a total of 6 analysts up there. Don't overthink it.
I'm not saying your price target is unreasonable. Any thing could happen now, with all the attention...and roughly 3.3 million shares of composite volume today, as i type.
They also set a one year price target of $1 Canadian, according to various web sources, and set an earnings eatimate of 11 cents Canadian for this year....which puts us, even after today's rally...at a mere 4x earnings.
I agree that 65k ounces is much more likely than 60k, since the new management has bent over backward to be conservative in its guidance...but also, is there any reason they can't come in at the midpoint of their cost guidance range? That would add another $50 per ounce in profit, or $3.25 M Canadian to the bottom line.
The only thing you have to be careful about is what AISC does NOT include. I know it doesn't include interest expense, for one.
My own guess is still that they earn something in the vicinity of 10 cents Canadian this year. (I expect them to continue to opportunistically hedge, as the year goes on...which could allow us to net perhaps $40-60higher, per ounce, than the average spot price, for the year.)
The company MUST now be sold, based on Carlos's totally screwing up this company, and destroying shareholder value. The shares are going to, a majority, be in the hands of Weitsman, and the arbs, and the premium, in a full and fair auction, should be more than Weitsman's 78 cents, which, in any case, is dramatically higher than the stock has been trading at.
At this point, it's just a matter of finding the highest bidder, and signing a deal with him. The board certainly cannot fiduciarily justify trying to remain independent, at this point...and they will be SUED if they do not do their duty, vis a vis the outside shareholder.
It is time to MAXIMIZE VALUE!!! For shareholders!
I closed out my short, at a modest loss, before the last run up. And now I'm strategically looking to re-add, based on THE FUNDAMENTALS. I'm not "worried" about "being wrong" to date, based on the current stock price. I look to PROFIT, based on the current stock price. You just like to attack and undermine people's self worth, as you always have. Which is your stock in trade. Yes, I am NOT always right. Who cares. Who ever is? But I am right more often than not, and oftentimes dramatically when I am. There is no reason to seek to undermine peoples' self worth, or attack their integrity, as you historically do. I'm not one of those pissant penny stock scamsters you like to go after.
You, on the contrary, get wed to positions, and enjoy the fanciful notion of having far flung "outsized" gains. And you stick around TOO LONG....just for that FEELING. That, to me, is asinine and immature. And not about investing. I try to always focus on making money.
I very strongly believe that Rouleau is dangerously treading on thin ice, where he increasingly looks like a BUFFOON with these silly self-justifications, games involving bamboozling "sleight of hand" (tons of low hanging fruit awaits us b.s.), and other nonsense that borders on pure chicanery. I believe he is aware of the VISUAL EFFECT of insider buying, and that he "compels" such loyalty from his lieutenants. He, no doubt, has many admirable and inspirational qualities, including, most notably, a laser sharp focus on managerial execution. But you can't turn a sow's ear into a silk purse, and he has pretty much DISCOVERED that here. Yet, he is pretending otherwise. Because he is DESPERATE to not make this, his final swan song, a complete and utter failure. I suppose the jury is still out, but that is really STRETCHING IT, to say. And Becker Drapkin thinks otherwise, just as I do. And i trust THEM more than Rouleau, and his silly, misplaced, tinny, infantile, "exhuberance."
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The CFO is a patsy for Rouleau. He knows the stock is garbage. But they simply HAVE to keep the music going on the Street. Because MAYBE they can pull a rabbit out of the hat.
I do not believe for one minute that the CFO thinks the stock is a "great bargain." He should be bottom fishing oil stocks instead.
Becker Drapkin is totally GONE. Nothing is more meaningful than that salient fact.
I look forward to the possibility of adding to my short on any run up back to $21.50-22.50. Although I still suspect $20 will remain as resistance...until the next earnings report.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I think you've got the right idea. I'm liking 10 cents Canadian as a nice number to "grab" for what they could earn this year....which is similar to your u.s. Number. But if gold prices rebound, and the canadian dollar continues to weaken, for, say, even the next 6 months, the upside will be phenomenal here. I think the stock should double (if gold and the canadian dollar stay where they are), And could triple (if gold and the Canadian dollar modestly continue their favorable trends), by year end.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This is irrelevant sky is falling nonsense that contributes abaolutely nothing. Vacuous.
Well, they're maintaining at just under the poison pill percentage, yes? Or is there a pil?
That analysis is pretty much folderol, or wishful thinking, with perhaps the slightest of validity to your first and 3rd points.
Your 2nd claim is brazen and outrageous.
A perennially underperforming business with no real place in the market. Will NEVER earn sufficient returns on investment. You can play it for "flukey" earnings swings, year to year, but it seems to me that you are playing with fire, as eventually, they're going to fall on their face too badly, breach covenants, and have to financially restructure.
Owning this stock is about as big of gamble as it gets. Avoid.
The longest and best version of the story is on the Planet Money Website. Has me playing piano at the end....