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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

longtimefollower 56 posts  |  Last Activity: May 26, 2015 9:05 PM Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 5, 2015 3:06 AM Flag

    Sterne Agee is delusional. How does the "focus on home products" help TUES. If Sterne Agee was paying any attention, they would realize that places like Home Goods have driven a stake through TUES's heart, on maintaining the profitability of its home goods lines. As has BBBY, ad nauseum.

    $2.50 in five years is a nice concept, but you may as well draw a rabbit out of a hat. Agee should be paying more attention to Rouleau's FAILED PROMISES, and "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" flim flam, in evaluating the likelihood of this thing earning $2.50 in EPS in 5 years. Such "predictions" are PURE speculation, and, in that sense, a TOTAL EMBARRASSMENT to that firm's name, imho. Who would want to BUY this stock on a prediction of what happens in 5 years such as this, when Rouleau has struggled MIGHTILY to get the gross margins going on the merchandising side. What POSSIBLE basis is there to project $2.50 in eps, 5 years out. Laughable.

    Looking for an opportunity to reshort at $18-19.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Love the "accretive" to book value nature of the deal, and overall total leverage reduction. LOVE the fact that no equity or warrants WHATSOEVER were issued in these deals. To me, this shows they are FULLY in control of their own destiny, and FULLY intend on "defending" the value of their equity, for the shareholders...until they run out of cash. And with over $1 billion in a "cash firewall," and no significant debt maturities until Dec. 2017, my guess is we have a full TWO AND 1/2 YEARS OF RUNWAY...and that assumes NO improvement in met coal prices (which is absurd).

    Meanwhile, we have another $300 or so million in additional "priority lien" debt they can we may very well be in a position to "soak up" ANOTHER $700-900 million in debt, if the deals are out there. And what I ESPECIALLY love about this situation is that any unsecured debt holders that remain out there now know that Alpha CAN AND WILL issue new secured debt, that ends up sticking the unsecured holders EVER FURTHER BACK IN LINE...behind the "new" secured debt holders. Sorry boys, but that's the way the cookie crumbles. To me, WISE unsecured debt holders, who are risk averse, should now be inclined to do their own private sales back to Alpha....lest they be placed in an even MORE PRECARIOUS "super subordinated" position.

    In any case, my own belief is that the company "makes it," and that this is a $6-10 stock in 8-15 months. The more the company pays down debt this way, the more it can inherently "afford" the debt it carries....especially when the coal market turns around.

    Will this result in an eventual $300 million extraordinary gain to the company, and concomitant increase in tangible equity? I believe so!

    This stock is now a full 12% of my portfolio, and i'll take it much higher, on any follow on deal.

    Financial flexibility is KING, and ANR's evidencing that, and being ignored by the street, is ABSURD. The stock should have popped to $1.50 on this news, in my book.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 2, 2015 7:04 PM Flag

    1. Supplies of natural gas, as a byproduct of fracking and shale plays, will be going down with crude prices. So natural gas supplies will be dropping. Plus, ANR is half met coal, and nat gas is IRRELEVANT to met coal demand.

    2. Met coal supply and demand coming into balance in 2nd half of this year, especially for the Atlantic Basin. Pricing for high grade met coal has been essentially stable between $110 and $115 for the last year, and fixed price contracts are holding up much better than spot deals. Dumping will be addressed by tarriffs.

    3. That's an exaggeration. But even if true, so what. Coal still 38% of u.s. Power production. Will be needed for a LONG time...and producers are not going to sell at a loss forever.

    4. YAWN. Not true. Not relevant.

    5. Again, producers not willing to run at losses forever....and met coal coming into balance by end of this year, with capacity reductions.

    6. Way WAY overblown....and actually creates a DELICIOUS CONTRARIAN OPPORTUNITY in reasonably leveraged coal companies like ANR.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 9, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    "Much of the Street" is merely the "me too" mutual funds, and people that have "made money on Rouleau at Michael's" that have naively piled in here. "Just a year off" is a total rationalization. For you to ignore that he has had OVER 2 years to fix merchandising, and is basically PUSHING ON A STRING is, frankly, delusional. The improvement, to date, financially, has been NOMINAL, MODEST, and MEAGER.

    Your looking at cost of capital is even more illogical. It's not about cost of capital in holding a stock. It is about OPPORTUNITY COST. Just because you are LAZY to find a better idea, or FEARFUL that after having your remaining money tied up here so long, you'd "hate to" pull out and "miss" something good....that is not a mark of a wise investor, to me. That is someone who is controlled by his emotions. A "negative" emotion.

    $10 is not a bargain. $10 is more than fair valuation. 1 1/2x book, and 18x the 55-65 cents in EPS I expect them to earn NEXT year.

    You should be paying attention to Becker Drapkin. They got out totally. And never got back in. They know that they were LUCKY.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to


    by g5peeps Apr 24, 2015 11:32 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 24, 2015 12:24 PM Flag


    I'm sorry you sold at the bottom and are bitter. You'll get over it eventually.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 26, 2015 9:01 PM Flag

    And loving every minute of it.

    Where does this Credit Suisse idiot get off saying a violation on the line of credit will lead to a "liquidity crisis" in a year, when ANR carries NO balance on the line, has $1 billion+ in cash and securities, and is probably burning no moe than $400-450 million a year.

    These analysts are DOLTS.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Mar 5, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    Now have this back up to a full 10% of my total portfolio.

    I expect this to be a huge winner over the next 6-18 months. My target is $10-15.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 6, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    This is also a great "head start" on the year, so I personally think that upping to 65,000-70,000 ounces for the year is reasonable.

    The company should be ENORMOUSLY profitable in Q1. That is very likely to get us some additional attention, from those who are still not, quite, paying attention.

    With gold back up to $1215, and the company's reserve grade up to over 7 g/t, I am increasingly comfortable that they will come in somewhere around my 10 cent EPS (Canadian) target for the year. Slap a 10-12 PE on that (probably conservative), and that gets you a $1.00-1.20 CAN stock, or roughly .80-1.00 U.S.

    We may be digesting recent gains now....but I believe this equity has lots more to go. Best of all, it has the "Big Mo." YOU CAN'T ARGUE WITH GARGANTUAN FREE CASH FLOW.....and who ever heard of a gold miner selling at 6x current year earnings??

  • Reply to

    Pump and Dump in motion

    by apprenticetrader Apr 16, 2015 5:47 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 23, 2015 11:48 PM Flag

    Well, he admits he's an "apprenticetrader" your attacking him for being a legend in his own mind is rather asinine.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Claude gets analyst coverage

    by garciald7 Mar 2, 2015 10:29 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Mar 2, 2015 9:16 PM Flag

    They also set a one year price target of $1 Canadian, according to various web sources, and set an earnings eatimate of 11 cents Canadian for this year....which puts us, even after today's a mere 4x earnings.

  • Reply to

    finally, some profit-taking

    by mahatmapavel Mar 19, 2015 12:19 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Mar 19, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    Only 600k volume on Canada today. That is peanuts. Modest corrective "backing and filling" action is healthy. If it goes back to 40-41 cents U.S., I'm buying.

  • Reply to

    Q1 Results to be Released After Market Close

    by lookin_2_score Apr 24, 2015 11:26 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 24, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    Laughable. We already know that Q1 production was blowout. There aren't going to be any surprises here.....except how much money they make....and how much debt they pay down.

  • The resistance to a breakout to higher prices is someone else. I have remained "long and strong"...still holding 5 million shares.

    Loved the Q1 production report...and think a solid Q1 earnings, and then Q2 production in early July, could be a springboard to our next "major run" here. There will be more "believers," and people discovering this stock, over that time period. There will also remain a keen interest among potential suitors, imho.

  • Will reshort at $19-19.50.

  • We have been discovered. This changes everything!!

  • Reply to

    Question for LTF

    by dugmalus Mar 11, 2015 7:37 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Mar 14, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    I had ongoing communications with members of management. I never recall receiving a formal written response to the 13D letter. They have pretty much turned Inspectra into a no cost "backwater" now, which I felt was responsive to the situation. The tragedy is that they were so desperate to create an alternative to suspension assemblies, that they kept throwing good money after bad, as long as they did, on that one.

    But it's a whole new ballgame now! And we focus on the exciting future, not the past!

  • Yet, the stock goes no where. What the hell is a junior miner that is going to do 60,000 or so ounces this year, selling at a market cap of like $17 million?? Shouldn't it be like TRIPLE that??

    Long and strong!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 2, 2015 12:01 AM Flag

    You won't be right, enough times, if you are naive and lucky. Sophisticated and principled will win out, over the long run.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 1, 2015 11:51 PM Flag

    Management history of dilutive share issuances, for one. Not too much else.

    I own 8 million shares, or 3% of the company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 2, 2015 12:03 AM Flag

    Well, you'll end up never buying the stock, because it misses your buy price by PENNIES....and then we'll never hear from you when the stock is $6-10 in 6-12 months. If you have NO position here, that smacks to me of a rank amateur.

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