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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

longtimefollower 65 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 23, 2014 1:23 AM Member since: May 12, 2000
  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 30, 2014 8:58 PM Flag

    I agree Rouleau is better than Mason, but the proof is in the pudding, and his results, from a profitability perspective, are NO BETTER than those under Mason. Maybe he has already CAPTURED the low hanging fruit, with the sales gains to date, and it will eventually become more difficult to keep those gains going. (Personally, I consider the "flattish ticket size," on increased traffic, to be a rather disappointing commentary on his vaunted lower IMU (initial markup) strategy. And i would daresay it is something they are VERY concerned about themselves, behind the scenes. But they would never tell you that.)

    If they can do 10%+ comps, for the next 6-8 quarters, The company MAY EVENTUALLY "grow into" its valuation. But that is a tall order, I am convinced, and in no way does the current risk/reward justify the current stock price. What "justifies" it is Rouleau's skillful hyper enthusiasm, and the broadbased faith in this pied piper, for what he hath wrought at Michael's Stores. i believe in buying a manager, to some degree, but this situation has gotten utterly ridiculous.....especially this apparent sudden discovery of all of this "low hanging fruit," which is purely fatuous flim flam, IMHO.

  • .....shows that they are DESPERATE. (Why weren't they referring, as sedulously as they are now, to these opportunities in prior quarters??!) It also is indicative of a CREDIBILITY problem. Specifically, wouldn't a fully competent manager have, by definiition, TAKEN ADVANTAGE of low hanging fruit, which, by definition, is "easy" to capture, after being on the job for 20 months or so??

    I believe Rouleau IS competent....but i believe the low hanging fruit refreneces are DECEPTIVE, intended to "keep the music going," and "string people along." The fact of the matter is, considering how bad everyone thinks the merchandising and presentation WAS under Mason, the fact that the improvement has been so modest to moderate, after all this time, under Rouleau, is a mark of failure, and or representative of a fundamentally compromised business model (this latter thing being something Rouleau would NEVER want to admit....even if he believed it to be true).

    The business is still in the early stages of a VERY dubious turnaround, where merchandising success remains FAR from assured.....a turnaround that might justify a $6, $10, or $12 stock price, but which is a totally unjustifiable at $22 (after hours). If the company earns 50 cents this fiscal year, and even 75 cents next, is it really worth $22?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 30, 2014 8:32 PM Flag

    I'm not "hoping" on HERO. I am confident on HERO. Declines in prices of stocks are opportunities to take advantage of, if the fundamentals haven't changed. I don't let fluctuations in stock prices dictate my view of value. I let the fundamentals, RELATIVE to the current trading price of the stock. Your classic "i don't want to miss out on more gains, and so I'm going to keep holding a position in a stock, when i could easily find a better one," is what i object to......because i see it as being undisciplined.

  • The vaunted and much ballyhooed "turnaround" is yet to be seen. Under Kathleen Mason, the company had a Q1 operating loss, IN RECESSION YEARS, of $6.8 million in 2008, $6.9 million in 2009, and $3.5 million in 2010, for an average of $5.8 million. What EXACTLY has Mssr. Rouleau actually DONE to justify the stock's selling at $20+, versus the $4 it was selling at in the Mason era, when HIS Q1 fiscal operating loss just reported is $5.8 million?? Sure, the results were modestly better than I expected, but what EXACTLY are people "celebrating" here?

    Rouleau is a fantastic salesman, and a decent manager, but he lays it on so thick, that his credibility comes into serious question. The notion, as he kept repeating in the comference call, that the company has "low hanging fruit everywhere" is outrageous, and intended to MANIPULATE investors. If Rouleau has been running this thing for 20 months now, he is an INCOMPETENT if there is still that much "low hanging fruit." Sure, you can't build Rome in a day, but the overall improvement, to date, has been MEAGER. And they are guiding for high single digit same store sales growth in the current quarter, NOT double digit.

    Also very telling, they are only talking about breaking even, roughly, in fiscal Q4, which pretty much tells you,based on historical results, what their annual EPS are likely to be, and I will tell you...it is going to be somewhere in the vicinity, give or take, of 50 cents. Does such a ROE, and turnaround, justify a $20+ stock?

    People are so enamored ot the TRAJECTORY of the same store sales increases, but unless the company keeps up 10%+ increases for at least the next 6 quarters, the current stock price won't be worth anywhere near justified. And Becker Drapking knows that, more than anyone.

    The company continues to have a BUSINESS MODEL problem, & despite being a very solid manager, Rouleau is strongly evidencing he is having SERIOUS PROBLEMS moving the needle on merchandising

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 30, 2014 12:38 AM Flag

    "Hoping" for a "breakout" is not investing. it is hoping.

    The stock is overvalued, based on the fundamentals. Any other claim on your part is patently false, and merely a result of your becoming "wed" to this stock, as one of your " glorious multi-baggers" that you want to continue to "milk" the psychological gains from. That is pure psychological hubris.

    I added to my short at $19.69, and am at roughly half of my previous peak short position.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Oct 23, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    Although at half the size of the previous peak, owing to the "flirting" with $20. Although i will probably add more, irregardless of price, just before the earnings release.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Claude gets ALL the gold

    by lookin_2_score Oct 13, 2014 3:10 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 21, 2014 12:28 AM Flag

    You're certainly entitled to whine. But i believe Claude has a very effective investor relations department....and when the story is worth telling, as it is now, i have full confidence that they will do what any junior miner is supposed to do to get the appropriate attention on the Street.

    I am confident. And i am patient. It will only get better from here, imho.

  • Reply to

    Stabosz is gagged for 3 years

    by smaycs4 Oct 17, 2014 3:12 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 21, 2014 12:20 AM Flag

    P&F is attractive, no doubt about it. But margin calls are margin calls, and the company was willing to work very expeditiously, and impressively, with me. (I didn't realize they would have to get a waiver from their bank when the process was initiated, so I consider an effective 30 hour "turnaround" from start to finish to be quite extraordinary...like moving mountains, really.) In any case, I do believe, over the next 12 months, that I have more profit potential in my favorite "low priced" names, such as ANR, HERO, CLGRF, RVM, etc. (Fair disclosure: I am a 5%+ holder of CLGRF, the largest shareholder, in fact.)

    Obviously, much is dependent on just how heady the accretion is in P&F, from the acquisitions, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a $10-12 stock price in the next 6-12 months, perhaps. But I think the stocks above are good candidates to double or more in the same time period.

    I will continue to be around here. I have friends who are in this stock, and I need to keep up with the situation. Plus, I had owned this stock back to 1996 or so, and am a huge "student" of P&F.

    Maybe one day, 3 or more years hence, in the next recession, I will find myself in the position of being an owner of P&F again. Until then, there are many other fish in the sea, and while I asked the company to NOT bind me to a standstill, it was made clear to me that there would be no deal without one.

  • Reply to

    Stabosz is gagged for 3 years

    by smaycs4 Oct 17, 2014 3:12 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 20, 2014 2:01 AM Flag

    Caught with my pants down with a money losing short position in fed funds futures.....very unfortunately.

    This removes effectively 9% or so of the nonaffiliated shares from the public float, which, between reducing supply, and generating accretion, should be a boon for all the remaining shareholders of P&F.

    It also bailed me out of a dramatic and sudden liquidity pickle (now fully resolved, i hope).

    Sometimes things don't always happen as we wish in life.......

  • Reply to

    Claude gets ALL the gold

    by lookin_2_score Oct 13, 2014 3:10 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 18, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    Not touchy. Just irritated by your impatience, and stupidity. It seems to me The company is doing what it can to get the story out...but it is kind of like pushing on a string when gold prices are where they, and sentiment is so poor.

    Make no mistake, the current situation represents a SEA CHANGE for Claude...and the market as a whole is barely paying attention. But I believe they eventually will. They will pretty much have to. The turn around is just too dramatic to ignore. And the internal value creation is quite extraordinary.

    I believe the stock should be trading much closer to book value....and if the company should be able to continue to perform, in a context of stable to increasing gold prices, it likely will, over the intermediate to long term (6-18 months).

  • Reply to

    Got out of the short...

    by longtimefollower Oct 9, 2014 5:13 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 18, 2014 5:58 PM Flag

    If and when I'm comfortable with my capital levels, I will short again. But yes, I will add some short on any run up to 19.50-19.75 again. Preferably before the pending earnings release.

  • Reply to

    Claude gets ALL the gold

    by lookin_2_score Oct 13, 2014 3:10 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 18, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Quit whining, you idiot. And be patient. Your posts are a total embarrassment....as you it shows you can't even see the nose on your face.

    If thes results we have been seeing don't excite you, and excite you monumentally, you should stick to keeping your money in bank cd's.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Oct 9, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    .....for capital raising (margin call) considerations.

    This looks like a support area, and i suspect there will be people that want to get in, prior to earnings, later this month. I will be looking to reshort, a few days before earnings.

  • Reply to

    I'm curious about something...

    by microcaptrader Oct 2, 2014 4:21 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 6, 2014 1:37 AM Flag

    Average comps were down 7/10 of 1%, annually, under Mason, for the 3 years 2010, 2011, and 2012...:the last 3 years of her tenure. That having been said, I agree with you that she was a failed manager, and a self justifying excuse machine. On the other hand, As previously stated, Rouleau should have plenty of "low hanging fruit," from a gross margin improvement standpoint....but he is not finding it! Which makes you wonder about either him....or the business model....or both.

    This guy may very well turn out to BE Kathleen Mason in drag. If the sales abd margins do not come through. I think the September quarter is actually going to be a great preliminary "bellweather," on how things are going.

  • Reply to

    I'm curious about something...

    by microcaptrader Oct 2, 2014 4:21 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 5, 2014 9:09 PM Flag

    It is ALREADY overvalued. Saying it can be "overvalued for many years" is not a sound basis to decide to hold a stock. It is UNDISCIPLINED, and exclusively relates to a desire to "not miss out" on something that "is in a huge uptrend." That is hubris, and that is being controlled 100% by your emotions. Not wanting to miss out" is NEVER the basis for owning a stock. Fundamental undervaluation is.

    I think it's an exaggeration to say Mason would be suffering 5-6% declines. More like flattish comps. And the problem with Rouleau is that he NEEDS comp growth, to justify the lower initial markups, and he is only BARELY making up the lost gross margin dollars, through increased sales. I AGAIN say, if this merchandising strategy and execution and buying were so much better than Mason, the overall comps, in the EARLY STAGES of the turn around, should be up in the double digit teens, at LEAST.

    Rouleau has FAILED. And he has failed where it counts the most...materially .improving overall gross profit dollars, and margins. And that isn't a testament to Rouleau being a "failure," admittedly, as much as it is a testament to a PERMANENTLY COMPROMISED BUSINESS MODEL.

    Tuesday Morning used to be a wonderful "novelty," quirky and all. People used to assume that because of the "jumbled" nature of the stores, and the price tags, that they were getting some kind of "super bargain." Indeed, in the early days, they were. But now, people can "see past" this kind of "novelty merchandising." There are so many others offering discounts and closeouts, including in better branded products, that TUES is now a small fish in a big sea. And someone as skillful as Rouleau, after 18 months at the helm, is proving that hands down.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    I'm curious about something...

    by microcaptrader Oct 2, 2014 4:21 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 4, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    improvement...not important

  • Reply to

    I'm curious about something...

    by microcaptrader Oct 2, 2014 4:21 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 4, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    And that's the problem...if the "former incompetence" was so godawful, as you continue to insist, there should have been ALL MANNER of "low hanging fruit" for the vaunted and acclaimed Mssr. Rouleau. But the overall results have only shown MODEST, and very modest at that, important, from the Mason days. That is downright ALARMING....and yet the stock has quintupled from Mason's days. That is asinine.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • will reshort on the rally back...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    This is why TUES is worth $20 today

    by smaycs4 Sep 27, 2014 3:26 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 2, 2014 1:38 AM Flag

    Meant to say even less impressive than it looks, on the merchandise buying.

  • Reply to

    This is why TUES is worth $20 today

    by smaycs4 Sep 27, 2014 3:26 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Oct 2, 2014 1:37 AM Flag

    Well, they certainly have not SUCCEEDED. And that is more important.

    The same store sales increases are FAR FROM "dramatic." Your characterization is manipulative, self serving, and delusional. The average ticket is DOWN, even as traffic is up. That is a monumental failure for two reasons: One, it shows the lower initial markups are NOT getting people to buy significantly MORE merchandise. Two, it shows that buying broader and less deep is adding additonal sku And buying costs, that they are not really getting much back on. This is the LYNCHPIN of their entire strategy, and they have virtually NOTHING to show for it....because the overall gross margins, and gross margin dollars, are not coming through. Worse, some of the gross margin improvement has come from distribution efficiencies, which means that the actual merchandise buying is even impressive than it looks.

    The clean and well organized stores are great. But that COSTS MORE to keep up, and again, if they aren't being rewarded enough on the sales front, that suggests, all the more, that they will NEVER be able to getmerchandising right. Because it's a BUSINESS MODEL PROBLEM.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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