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A. H. Belo Corporation Message Board

longtimefollower 41 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 18, 2014 8:41 PM Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    New approx. 7 year high today at $19.43

    by smaycs4 Sep 16, 2014 3:52 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 18, 2014 8:41 PM Flag

    Congratulations on your gains. Why don't you take them.

  • Obviously, a totally non scientific analysis. Just sharing impressions. Stores impressively clean and orderly. BUT, only one other customer, at any one time, was there. And just me, a good part of the time. I only spent $25, when, i spend a couple hundred, several months back, the last time i was at a store. I didn't find any compelling "impulse buys," or particularly intriguing or "must have" items.

    My thoughts are that the "specialness" of TUES just isn't what it used to be. Pricing is no better than many others. And selection just isn't the "treasure hunt" it used to be. In particular, the core categories of kitchen wares, bedding, linens, and luggage are just like anyone else's offerings.

    I remain confident in the fundamental soundness of my short position, and believe that this thing is set up for a major disappointment. Why? Because Rouleau has FLUMMOXED the marketplace by "buying" an outrageous amount of time, by sedulously and brazenly convincing the market that it was like an 18 month "program" to turn the company around, and that the lack of ANY REAL PROGRESS, up to this point, doesn't matter, and thathe should be given the benefit of the doubt. The small token insider buys were intended to MANIPULATE market places into believing that Rouleau, and his CFO, are "true believers," and intended to distract from the much more significant SELLING by Becker Drapkin.

    No matter. The proof will finally be here, with xmas quarter results. The excuses will be UNTENABLE, and Rouleau will finally have to live with the reputation he has earned.

    There is a lot of "hot air" built into this stock, and the kind of results that are necessary to justify the current stock price are virtually unobtainable.

    This thing is trading at pie in the sky prices....and i fully intend to short more, on any rally up into the $20's.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 11, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    Well, I sold out 6 months ago.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Sep 11, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    No one wants to throw money into a rathole.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ....and have anyone want to "back" you any more.

    The "highest value" for stakeholders (i.e. The lenders) is in a liquidation. PERIOD.

    I expect vendors to be spooked by this report.

    There IS NO BUSINESS MODEL HERE ANYMORE!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Rouleau's history--a galaxy far, far away

    by keyes_fred Sep 3, 2014 8:24 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 7, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    It's asinine to talk about TUES stock following the market. The stock price is MAJORLY "invested" in the concept of a Rouleau "magical" turnaround. If that doesn't come, THIS XMAS, the stock will fall back to single digits. If the Street thinks we're looking at 80 cents in EPS this fiscal year, and $1.20 next, well, then MAYBE it goes up to $20-25.

    To hold a stock like this as a "proxy" for the market is absurd. And negligent. And misguided.

  • Reply to

    Rouleau's history--a galaxy far, far away

    by keyes_fred Sep 3, 2014 8:24 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 7, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    I tend to agree with fabulous poodle. I would not dismiss Rouleau on the basis you do. Merchandising is not necessarily about all the things you are talking about. He's got a good team, that knows how to "stay with the times." The problem I have with the situation isn't that Rouleau is a "dinosaur," as you're arguing. It's that TUES has a permanently compromised business model...and he merchandising efforts, over the last 18 months, have LARGELY FAILED. And what I resent is the "bombast" and the chicanery around this notion of "we're laying all this groundwork, and just wait until September 1st." That is a load of BUNK....and things should have been ratably improving, over the ENTIRE tenure of Rouleau....but he has BARELY moved the needle. What's even scarier is that some of the gross margin improvement has come from distibution center efficiencies, and other things, NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to having the "right merchadise."

    I believe the "model" is permanently compromised, and will never earn more than a single digit ROE. And it will only get worse, over time. The concept of a "bare bones" upper end closeout retailer is passe. The "sales event" aspect of the business is also GONE. This is like the KMart blue light special. Everyone knows they can get similar merchandise at just as good or better prices at a number of other retailers. That was not exactly the case 20 years ago.

    It's not that Rouleau is a dinosaur....it's that TUES is! My problem with Rouleau is that he is a snake oil salesman. He KNOWS he's failing....but he's been engaging in sleight of hand, and putting on a happy face. Because he has to. Prediction: Rouleau will be fired in 3-6 months, when Xmas doesn't validated his vaunted and self congratulatory "multi-point tactical and strategic plan." He acts like he's totally in control of this thing.....but, at bottom, when it comes to RESULTS, he's just spinning his wheels. But his "fans" love the kool aid.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Good Herb Greenberg quote from yesterday:

    by smaycs4 Sep 6, 2014 7:30 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 7, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    That's certainly true. But couldn't that equally apply to your being long, and your blind confidence in Rouleau, merely because he turned around Michael's Stores...and IGNORING the evidence that he has, to date, largely failed, in remerchandising TUES, in order to increase bottom line profits?

    Being a true believer is the worst form "investor." I'd rather be confident and wrong, than naive and wrong. Because, over the long run, I will be right more often than you. Because I am willing to stick to my principles. And the fundamentals. Rather than playing exclusively on amorphous things like "hope" and "reputation." I think RESULTS are what are most important....and we're not seeing them here.

    That having been said, I look forward to going into one of the stores, over the next several days, and seeing if there is something, as a short, to be "frightened" by. I doubt there will be.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    The high estimate for next year is now 87 cents

    by smaycs4 Aug 31, 2014 2:28 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 5, 2014 1:13 AM Flag

    1) I am not "seeking something to bet on." That's asinine.

    2) " i have the wind at my back in that the long term trend of the markets is up." Response: You'd be better off buying an index fund. TUES is in the top 20% universe of overpriced retail stocks.

    Rouleau may have been great at michael's, but it seems to me, when it comes to tues, he's a snake oil salesman....or at least with regard to their merchandising...which has been modestly successful, at best....even if the concept of "wider and less deep" absolutely makes a lot of sense.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    The high estimate for next year is now 87 cents

    by smaycs4 Aug 31, 2014 2:28 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 3, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    And what EXACTLY is it, Mr. Smaycs, that i "can't see right ahead of me." Something you are seeing, or have high confidence in? Relative to an $18 stock price??

    You are GAMBLING, plain and simple. I remember our conversations from years back, and you always became WED to your big winners, because the good feelings towards them were kind of an "addiction" for you, that you don't want to let go of. But that is NOT investing. And that is NOT about maximizing returns.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 3, 2014 3:13 AM Flag

    You stupidly hold something that is up 35x, simply because you are enamored of the concept of being 35x. You could care less about the further turnaround potential, or the fundamental value, relative to other opportunities, because this is no longer an "investment" for you. It's a lottery ticket that has "paid off," that you want to keep holding onto, because it keeps reminding you how "smart" you are. I prefer to be more disciplined.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Not by a longshot.

    DODO BIRDS.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Aug 28, 2014 1:26 AM Flag

    Actually, you're totally wrong. And totally misguided. And even delusional.

    I could CARE LESS that the stock is up. I could care less when a market is irrational....as it only allows me to add to a position.

    This game isn't over yet. Also, ignore manipulative claptrap, in press releases and conference calls, AT YOUR PERIL. Sophisticated investors now how to interpret and filter information. You're a solid value investor...but you are also quite dogmatic and rigid.

    "Playing the house's money" is a mantra for suckers, and weak thinkers. If there is something better to own than TUES, you should be in it. Holding a small position in TUES for a potential "outsized gain," because it "feels good" to you, is the height of stupidity, and hubris, and grandiosity.

    Nobody CARES any more that you bought it at 51 cents 5 1/2. I did too, but that is PAST, and it was long before Rouleau.

    You are an undisciplined thinker in many many ways. Your "cheapness" has made you sucessful as a value investor. But your inane desire for these "20 baggers" clouds your thinking.

    You are DUMB to own this stock, when there are CLEARLY better investments. DUMB. And rigid. And inflexible.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Aug 26, 2014 12:53 AM Flag

    But that's not what we're talking about. Nor is it relevant. What we are talking about is the fundamentals, and the guidance, and rouleau's "just wait until September 1st" b.s.....and his utterly shameless "we believe we are confident" claptrap.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ....in combined gross margin and SG&A (with 50 basis points coming from gross margins, and 100 basis points coming from SG&A), and the company increases sales from $865 million in 2014 to, say $950 Million in 2015, that would seem to suggest that overall operating profit is only expected to increase by $14 million pretax, or maybe $9 million, after tax. On a company that roughly broke even, on an after tax basis, in 2014, we are talking about an IMPLICIT MANAGEMENT PROJECTION of an EPS level somewhere around 20 cents a share for 2015, based upon the currently outstanding share base.

    Even if they DOUBLE that guidance (which they won't), that would only put the stock at no more than 40-50 cents in bottom line, fully taxed earnings, in 2015.

    I would like someone to point out what exactly, in managment's guidance in the conference call, I am missing, or how i am misrepresenting it.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Aug 21, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    The comparison is silly.

  • Reply to

    ugly performance

    by demarkdom Aug 21, 2014 4:14 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Aug 21, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    I'm short, but I wouldn't call it "ugly." I would definitely call it unimpressive, and uninspiring, though.

  • "...we believe that we are confident that we have a solid foundation in place," Mr. Rouleau concluded.

    If that isn't melee mouthed, i don't know what is. Truly confidenteople CLAIM their confidence as an emotion. They don't state that they "believe" they are confident!

    Rouleau is clearly hedging his bets, and has no idea whatsoever whether the necessariy sales volume, and margins, are going to come througn, to give credence to all of the "rabid remerchandising" they have been doing the last few years.....or if it is really just some kind of pointless shell game....sound and fury signifying nothing. The jury is STILL OUT. And yet, the stock is trading as if Rouleau is the 2nd coming of Christ.

    READ what Rouleau says. He HEDGES something horrible in his public comments. And that is because he has NO IDEA whether the core of his efforts here, the remerchandising of TUES, is actually WORKING.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • He HATES the idea of me making money.

    One would think he would have enough of a life that he'd have more important things to do.

  • ....and that i have been comtinually buying, in the extreme low $2's, up through the day before the earnings release. (After having bought at up to $2.90+, just before the LAST earnings release, and getting hosed, in the short term, after the last release.)

    With Friday's close, this is now the second largest holding in my portfolio.

    I want to thank uptab for his very salient points about this company, as posted on this board. More recently, i especially think his point that if this were viewed as a developmental stage OIS (and possibly other new product line) company, the market cap would likely be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than current. Very perspicacious. Very compelling.

    I also like the Craig Hallum upgrade.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AHC
10.73-0.22(-2.01%)Sep 22 4:04 PMEDT

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