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Quiksilver Inc. Message Board

longtimefollower 67 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 25, 2014 1:21 AM Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    High estimate for year ending Jan 2016=92 cents

    by smaycs4 Nov 21, 2014 10:11 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 25, 2014 1:21 AM Flag

    If the avg estimate is 79 cents, why are you using 90 cents?? Also, the fiscal year ends June not fiscal 2016 needs to be discounted an additional 5 months by you.

    The gross margins remain the HUGE problem here, with the lower initial markups being offset only barely by higher sales. The ENTIRE STRATEGY is predicated upon much higher sales....and with guidance of SINGLE DIGIT comp increases for the current December quarter, you can almost GUARANTEE that the Xmas quarter is going to be an overall disappointment. This whole "we have tons of low hanging fruit" scam is intended as a sleazy "sleight of hand" attempt to buy extra time, for them to pull something out of their hat, while they continue to FALSELY REASSURE the markets that "everything is going gangbusters, and is 'on track.'

    This is PURE FLIM FLAM....and the company is primarily operating on HOPE, and a quiet (and secret) desperation, at this point.

    It REMAINS TO BE SEEN where the EPS growth they desperately need is going to come from....which is the whole point of my pointing out how their last quarterly release was NO BETTER than the average of the recession hears 2008-2010, averaged together.

    Rouleau has worked all kind of magic, to remake this company, and get dramatically better managerial control of the thing, that is uncontestible. But that is the very thing that makes the FAILURE to date so stark. It's the merchandising, STUPID! And the failure of the merchandising to gussy up gross margins enough.

    I look forward to reshorting in a month's time.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Stopped out at $21.60 a week back.

    by longtimefollower Nov 20, 2014 11:42 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 25, 2014 1:10 AM Flag

    It's obviously a double edged sword...and the kind of "sheep" that own a stock like TUES can be fickle in their buying and selling habits. That having been said, I think the way it held up so well, in the October selloff.....and after a ho hum earnings report with ho hum guidance, along with the suggestion through the 13F reports of SUBSTANTIVE near term demand for the stock, tells me that there are still plenty of "believers" here......and i'd rather reshort prior to xmas sales indications, and/or earnings release, in order to keep risk to a minimum. (I believe the catalyst for a selloff will be all of the "sheep longs," that think they are going to make a killing, when the xmas quarter earnings come out....and plan on "selling into the big rally"......a rally, of course, that will never happen.

  • Reply to

    What about Mike Sylvestre

    by tallcg Nov 13, 2014 8:31 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 24, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    I'm not sure you need to "force" them to go on a major exchange. They have said publicly that that is something they are looking at, and are focused on.

  • Reply to

    Stopped out at $21.60 a week back.

    by longtimefollower Nov 20, 2014 11:42 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 23, 2014 1:23 AM Flag

    Because the 13F filings are telling me that there are probably enough "sheep" to keep this thing going a bit while longer, and I'd rather wait until we get closer to the xmas sales report, at least, before going short again, because I figure between now and then we'll probably stay in the $21-25 range.

  • Reply to

    What about Mike Sylvestre

    by tallcg Nov 13, 2014 8:31 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 22, 2014 12:58 AM Flag

    Well, it is classy of you to apologize. As to your last question, i'm going to leave changes in the status of my filing as a 13D holder to formal SEC filings. Suffice it to say, I continue to support the strategic alternatives process the company is engaged in, and believe that *anything* should be for sale for the right price. But I also believe that the company is substantially undervalued, and that "time is on our side," decidedly, now, from a shareholder perspective. (The value of the company will only go ever higher, over time, over the next year or two, as material free cash flow is generated, and debt is substantially, or even dramatically, paid down, leaving the company as an ever increasingly attractive "tuck in" takeover candidate for another miner.)

  • Reply to

    What about Mike Sylvestre

    by tallcg Nov 13, 2014 8:31 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 21, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    I dont think you can compare someone who has a Masters of Science in mining, and plenty of experience, with Neil McMillan. Your constant negativiity and cynicsm creates a horrible undertow here. The company has been "remade," and i fully anticipate we will be rewarded handsomely. Skanderbeg gets a whole lot of credit for the improvements here. Calling him "Neil's boy" is an affront.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 21, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    I don't think that is valid at all. They have exposure through ESOP plans. And the directors have a huge percent of their director fees paid in stock and DSU's.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Nov 20, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Looking to reshort in the $24.50-25 range.

    The 13F reports are interesting, and show fairly broad based instituional purchasing during the quarter, with no material sellers getting out of large blocks...other than, interestingly enough, Becker Drapkin.

    I believe these institutions getting into this stock are momentum based SHEEP, who are chasing performance. That having been said, stocks go up based upon supply and demand, and right now, there is DEMAND because there are BELIEVERS. (And like the typical momentum bs, the more it goes up, the more suckers that are born every minute to want to get on this train.)

    no point in being short now, until the stock climbs higher, or until we get closer to a prerelease of xmas numbers. But one thing is for sure: the institutions at are buying this stock did not read the same earnings release and conference call transcript i did.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    I don't like the huge write off.

    by longtimefollower Nov 16, 2014 12:16 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 18, 2014 9:30 PM Flag

    Paragon's debt to equity, adjusted for cash, is now higher than HERO's. Yes, it is has higher ebitda margins, but those look like they are going south. Also, are the PGN insiders buying stock in the open market like HERO's are?

  • Reply to

    I don't like the huge write off.

    by longtimefollower Nov 16, 2014 12:16 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 17, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    As if that ONE stinking fact is "deterministic" in whether to choose PGN over HERO??

    Good luck with your investing "regimen." You'll need it.

  • Reply to

    I don't like the huge write off.

    by longtimefollower Nov 16, 2014 12:16 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 17, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    You're comparing market cap to ebitda margin and fact that company has a bottom line loss? That's hardly a sound analysis. If PGN took a huge 30% of assets writedown, you can be certain those ebitda margins are going significantly lower. I prefer to look at price to book and price to sales, and HERO is cheaper on those measures. They also have a $200 million firewall of cash, nothing drawn on their revolver, and no material near term debt maturities, or covenants to bust. The insiders have also bought "all the way down."

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 17, 2014 1:06 AM Flag

    I believe wage inflation is going to pick up in the US, as is economic growth, making for a more favorable backdrop for gold. I also suspect a "reversion to the mean" on commodities prices generally.

    But that doesn't mean i couldnt be wrong and gold will stay around $1200....or go down.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 16, 2014 12:22 AM Flag

    Not totally out of the realm of possibility....But you'd need gold at $1400-1500 US for that, I'd say, and a run rate of probably 65,000 ounces, through the end of 2015, at least, to get that. Is that your expectation?

    I think a 12-18 month target of 40-75 cents if more realistic....assuming, maybe, $1300+ gold, at some point during that period.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Nov 16, 2014 12:16 AM Flag

    Like 30% of assets, vs HERO's 5% of assets write off.

    I'm now waiting for lower prices in december on this one, and prefer HERO to PGN, at this point.

  • Versus $6.6 million a year ago.

    As a value investor, i always like TANGIBLE asset value, as a means of creating a "margin of safety." That having been said, the earnings, adjusted for one time expenses, look impressive....especially since they've only gotten some of the benefit from the acquisitions...and little of the expected follow on synergies yet. So as long as the cash flows and profits justify the acquisitions, going forward, rather than turn into some of the "klinkers" they've had in the past, goodwill or not, the stock looks undervalued, and the timing of my "forced sale" very unfortunate for my purposes.

    I will be happy for friends and nonaffiliated relatives who are in this stock, though, who will be able to profit.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • And what digital properties will they still own? and what are those properties worth in a sale?

    What is the breakup value of MNI?

    Can value be created if they spin off various parts, or do some other form of financial engineering?

  • See the latest Form 4 filing. Ominously, he was using a 10b5 plan upon the earnings release, which expired on 11/4.....And then he sold shares outright, "by choice," in the open market, on 11/4.

    Becker knows that this company's stock price is a pipe dream, that bears no relationship to the only modest turnaround in the fundamentals....and the very disappointing turnaround in overall merchandise gross margin.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 1, 2014 6:14 PM Flag

    Much higher entry point. I would be comfortable making HERO 7-8% of a portfolio at this point....with 5-6% in PGN. If they drop another 20-30% before year end, bring HERO up to 10% of portfolio, and PGN to 7%.

    I think CLGRF is the "must buy" miner, at these levels, as will be evidenced in tomorrow's earnings report (which I am only saying, based upon the spectacular production report they prereleased).

    And yes, I am the largest shareholder, and a 5% owner, of CLGRF.

    I still think RVM and TC are excellent buys in here also. Among others.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 1, 2014 3:38 AM Flag

    i happen to agree with you on this one. i'd like to see these effers buying 100K share blocks at these prices. as a result, i am waiting until december to consider adding more....or a further price drop in the near term.

  • Reply to


    by longtimefollower Oct 31, 2014 3:09 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 1, 2014 2:08 AM Flag

    I'm having a bit of fun with it, through a wee bit of farce and exaggeration.....and if that isn't the point of life, i don't know what is.

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